April 29th, 2021: The NFL Draft started like pure bliss for dynasty managers. Seven of the first 10 picks were fantasy relevant players. Named like Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and Kyle Pitts had dynasty managers on cloud nine. What happened later on in the first round was a cautionary tale that will long stand the test of time in Dynasty Fantasy Football.
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James Robinson was found money for dynasty managers who had first-round production out of a little-known UDFA. Robinson finished as RB7 overall on the season, and was dubbed a “league winner” by nearly every fantasy content creator. The hapless Jaguars had the No. 1 pick (they selected Trevor Lawrence), a new head coach in Urban Meyer, and holes to fill all over the roster. Robinson was viewed as one of the safer players on the offensive side of the ball. Additionally, despite his lack of draft capital, he gained a TON of dynasty value.
The Unthinkable
Then the unthinkable happened. The Jacksonville Jaguars selected Clemson RB Travis Etienne with the 25th overall pick. This out of nowhere selection was a proverbial gut punch for Robinson dynasty managers. His dynasty value was completely shattered.
The NFL Draft is one of the most hopeful nights of the year. NFL teams find hope with new talent. Fans feel a sense of optimism for their franchises no matter how the previous seasons played out. Dynasty Fantasy Football managers have hope of a new set of skill position players entering NFL and onto their dynasty rosters.
But when it comes to current NFL players, when one door opens, another closes. With every skill position player selected, the threat rises that current circumstances can get worse. For some players it can get A LOT worse.
These are the players who could gain or lose a great deal of Dynasty Fantasy Football value during the 2024 NFL Draft.
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones – New York Giants
The days of viewing Jones as the long-term answer at QB in New York have seemingly come to an end. The main question for Dynasty Fantasy Football managers is: Does Jones maintain some value in 2024 and a chance to regain a chance at a starting spot in 2025? Jones will either go from being the starter in an offense that just landed a stud WR like Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze. Or he could be replaced as a starter instantly.
Running Backs
James Cook – Buffalo Bills
Wait, why is Cook on this list!?
With Stefon Diggs‘s departure, Cook is the Buffalo Bill with the highest ADP on Underdog. In Dynasty, he is being valued as an RB1 on KTC. This has been a rapid ascension for Cook. He has officially reached peak Dynasty Fantasy Football Value. In redraft, he could well be on his way to a top-30 ADP in August.
The Bills have a glaring hole at backup RB. Will they address this with a later-round pick that would further insulate Cook’s value? Maybe. Or they could add immediate competition with a player like Trey Benson. (Buffalo hosted Benson on a recent Top 30 visit)
Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers
Hubbard was a pleasant surprise in 2023. He finished with 900+ rushing yards and added a career high 39 receptions. He dominated the production of oft injured free agent signing Miles Sanders. This offseason, Carolina made a coaching change, hiring Dave Canales. As offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, Canales oversaw the rise of Rachaad White and fed him voluminously. White finished tied for the third most carries in the NFL. Additionally, he added 64 receptions on 70 targets. That sort of volume is few and far between in today’s NFL. This could lead to a career year for Hubbard if he can survive the NFL Draft.
There are going to be many nervous moments for Hubbard managers. If he survives, expect his ADP to rise and his 2024 Dynasty Value to increase. If a running back like Jonathon Brooks or Trey Benson is selected (both took Top 30 Visits to Carolina), then the Hubbard volume chasers will see their window close.
Zamir White – Las Vegas
See Hubbard and insert White. The third year back has been on a roll. He took advantage of a Josh Jacob’s injury to post four straight weeks of RB2 or better production to end the 2023 season. Then Jacobs signed as a free agent with Green Bay, and Las Vegas replaced him with Alexander Mattison– certainly no real threat to White.
As of right now, White is the presumed RB1 under Antonio Pierce. Pierce is a a head coach who loves to lean on his running game. If White manages to dodge some of the top running backs in the 2024 Class, then his Dynasty Fantasy Football Managers will rejoice and plug him into their RB2 spots.
Javonte Williams – Denver Broncos
The journey of the Javonte Williams Dynasty Manager has been muddled with injuries, let downs, and a lot of managers shaking their heads and wondering what could have been. After a promising rookie season where Williams saw his Dynasty value increase exponentially. The momentum ended sadly with an ACL tear in 2022.
Williams returned last season but has never taken the next step. Last season, Williams finished No. 31 among all RBs in PPR PPG. Youth is still on his side, as the 24-year-old Williams is gearing up for his fourth season with a healthy offseason to prepare. If he survives the NFL Draft without much resistance, he could finish with a career-high in fantasy points. But like many RBs on this list, the Broncos could select an RB and signal to all Dynasty managers that Williams is not the long-term answer in Denver.
OK, Not Really a Landmine, BUT….. Kyren Williams – LA Rams
Williams appears to be safe, having avoided any free agent RB threat. There still has to be some fear and trepidation with some Williams Dynasty managers that some damage could be done to his 2024 touch ceiling during the NFL Draft. The Rams could add a talented handcuff RB. The third round is the danger zone, and the Rams pick twice at 83 and 99.
Devin Singletary – NY Giants
Singletary played well last season in Houston and earned himself a three-year $16.5 million contact with the New York Giants. A reunion with his former head coach Brian Daboll could be just what the doctor ordered.
A Saquon Barkley lite (OK, very, very light) role could have Singletary Dynasty Managers cautiously optimistic heading into the 2024 season. Add in the fact that the Giants have arguably the worst set of skill position players in the league. Additionally, an argument can be made that Singletary could be headed for a career year. All of that optimism would go down the drain if New York selects an RB.
An RB selection at pick No. 47 or pick No. 70 in the second or third round would be catastrophic. However, there should also be a number of players available at pick No. 107 that could damage Singletary. This is a hold your breath moment for a player whose value is banking on a solid floor.
Wide Receivers
DJ Moore – Chicago Bears
Moore’s 2023 season was a reward to the Dynasty Managers who have long waited for a WR1 season out of the talented 26-year-old. After years of QB purgatory, Moore found success with Justin Fields and now has a QB upgrade on the way with Caleb Williams. Moore’s Dynasty managers can deal with the Keenan Allen pickup. The offense should pass more and score more, and both players should thrive.
But what happens to Moore’s dynasty value if the Bears select Rome Odunze with the No. 9 overall pick? Not only would Moore’s target share take a further hit, but he could potentially be worth less than Odunze in one season.
Christian Kirk – Jacksonville Jaguars
Kirk gained a considerable bump in Dynasty Value, Best Ball, and Redraft when Calvin Ridley headed for the Titans. After a career high WR18 finish in 2022, Kirk took a slight step back in weekly PPG in 2023 with a WR31 finish and missed some time with injuries. He has a chance to re-establish himself as the preferred WR target in Jacksonville this season.
Gabe Davis is not a threat to receive a Ridley like target share (136 targets). The real threat to Kirk is who the Jacksonville Jaguars select in the first round of the NFL Draft. Avoiding a WR altogether is the best outcome for Kirk managers. If Jacksonville stays put, adding a Xavier Worthy or Brian Thomas Jr. type, would hurt Kirk’s target ceiling. Trading up for a player like Rome Odunze could destroy it.
Rashee Rice – Kansas City Chiefs
Rostering Rice has been a roller coaster ride for Dynasty Managers. He played exceptional football over the second half of the season. Rice was a massive hit based on where Dynasty Managers had to select him in their rookie drafts. In early Best Ball ADP, Rice steamed up to WR1 territory, and fantasy managers whispered names like Amon-Ra St. Brown when assessing his year two potential. There was nothing but positive vibes, and Rice looked like the heir apparent to Travis Kelce as the go to guy in the Chiefs offense. Even the signing of Hollywood Brown did nothing to deter the Rice steam.
Then, the off-field incident occurred as Rice was involved in a bad car accident/racing incident. While the outcome (suspension?) is unknown, the Rice steam has quickly been replaced by some panic, but mostly trepidation. I was able to acquire Rice for a 2nd and a 3rd in one league. Some managers are looking to get out. If Kansas City selects a WR in the first round for the first time since 2011, it will speak volumes on how confident they are with Rice being their leading WR.
For more from Theo Gremminger, check out this article – NFL Mock Draft with Trades – PlayerProfiler
