Fantasy football, especially dynasty, can be very complex and challenging at times. It is difficult to find certain players that are likely to gain value. Dynasty is similar to the stock market. When investing on the stock market, even a good process can occasionally lead you to a loss or negative return on investment. That is generally why in both fantasy football and stocks, people build portfolios in order to make bets in bulk, hedge their bets, and limit exposures depending on the bets. In other words, not placing all, or most, of the eggs in one basket. But in some rare occurrences you run across an asset where the path to gained value or a positive return on investment is just too obvious. This article covers Jayden Daniels NFL Draft Profile and the chances of him becoming a valuable asset in Dynasty.
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Hype
I have read many articles that hype up players. They are good in their own right. However, in order to understand why Daniels’ path to a positive return on investment is considered so likely, we must find historical comparisons and their trajectories. We can find these examples through Daniels’ positional value, draft capital, rushing profile, and passing profile, before marrying them all together to get a much easier view into what makes him such a good investment.
Positional Value
The quarterback position has and always will be the most important position in football. The same rings true for superflex fantasy football. This is a format that is now considered the most common where you can play two quarterbacks at once in a lineup.
In fact, if we look at average draft position from dynasty startups via dynastydatalab.com, that settlement becomes further evident. Just in the first 12 picks, nine play the quarterback position. This essentially means that 75 percent of the average players first pick in drafts is a quarterback. Even if we zoom that out just a bit further, 15 of the top 30 average picks in startup drafts are quarterbacks. To put that into perspective, just 22 percent of picks in the first 12 rounds are quarterbacks. However, in the most critical parts of the startup draft, the early picks, 75 percent of the first round, is comprised of quarterbacks. Additionally, 50 percent of the top 30 are quarterbacks.
What that tells us is that taking a swing on a quarterback prospect can net you the highest upside. Which that swing has a higher probability of netting you that high-end upside the higher they are selected in the NFL Draft.
Draft Capital
While it should be fairly obvious that quarterbacks who are drafted higher in the NFL Draft are more likely to become high-end assets, it needs to be reiterated. Using average startup draft position again, of those nine quarterbacks being selected in the top 12, 89-percent were drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. 78-percent were drafted in the top 12 picks. 56-percent were drafted in the top 6 picks.
But to get a more historical hit rate we can look at past production. This is typically the biggest driver for a player’s value. Since 2006, 71 percent of quarterbacks drafted in the top 3 of the NFL Draft have posted at least a 20-fantasy point per game season. But even better in the case of Daniels is that hit rate bumps up to 81-percent if we shrink the sample down to quarterbacks drafted in just the top 2 of the NFL Draft.
I say in the case of Daniels because he currently holds the second highest expected draft position in the 2024 NFL Draft class according to grindingthemocks.com. This is something that he’s held all the way back since February. Not to mention, the betting markets also expect him to get drafted there. FanDuel has Daniels as a massive favorite at -300 to go second overall on April 25th.
That is already a solid hit rate. It also appears to be a friendly bet to make in our own fantasy football drafts. However, we must dive deeper into Daniels’ profile for it to really become obvious.
Rushing Profile
It’s no secret that Jayden Daniels is a dynamic rusher. He averaged 9.2 rushing points per game across his collegiate career. This includes 14.5 rushing points per game in his Heisman season this past year. Daniels was just the fifth quarterback drafted in the top three to have a season of at least 12.0 rushing points per game. The other four to do it were Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Robert Griffin III, and Vince Young. That’s clearly great company. Those four averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game in their rookie seasons. This would have been the QB8 last season.
Posting that level of rushing production not only provides a very high upside, but a high floor as well. Take Newton and Griffin III, again, for example. Both posted at least 20 fantasy points per game in their rookie seasons. This was despite failing to achieve 16 passing points per game. Even better examples are Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields in their second years. Both Fields and Hurts posted at least 20 fantasy points per game. They did this while failing to post 16 passing points per game as well. Even further, Fields posted just 11.3 passing points per game that season.
A high-end rushing profile, which Daniels has, allows for strong fantasy production even if the passing production isn’t ideal from a quarterback. But at the same time, Daniels also has plenty of upside as a passer.
Passing Profile
What gets lost in his Heisman season is just how good of a passer he was. Daniels produced a 92.0 PFF Passing Grade that was the second highest in college football. He also produced a whopping 13.6 adjusted yards per attempt that led the entire nation. Prior to last year, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa were the only first-round quarterbacks to have a collegiate season of at least 13.0 adjusted yards per attempt.
Daniels’ impressive passing peripherals led to 32.0 passing points per game. It also helped make him the first ever first-round quarterback with at least 30 passing points per game and 10 rushing points per game in a season. He is also the second first-round quarterback to have a collegiate season of just 45.0 fantasy points per game. The only other quarterback to do this was Lamar Jackson.
So, while his rushing profile provides a high floor, his passing profile shows us that his upside is on par with the best assets in all of fantasy football.
Concerns
I can understand the hesitancy when discussing a prospect who just completed his fifth collegiate season. But at the quarterback position, age isn’t as important for prospects. This is especially true when the NFL likes them. There’s been four fifth-year prospects drafted in the NFL Draft. These players were Joe Burrow, Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield, and Carson Wentz. All of these players have produced at least 20 fantasy point per game seasons and have held very high value peaks.
We can also take Burrow, who’s fifth-year season was very similar to that of Daniels as a passer. Burrow also happened to be playing with two even better wide receivers. This shows us why the concerns regarding Daniels profile have been overblown.
Return on Investment
There have been plenty of groupings that we’ve found Daniels profile in. However, the most important one is the one that marries all of them. This will help us get the best understanding of his range of outcomes. We do this by combining his prospect tier, prospect type, and draft capital. Which for Daniels’ profile, leads us to an Elite Konami quarterback prospect. This gives us his prospect bucket below.
A bucket that features Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson, and Vince Young is certainly a good one with plenty of upside. But what stands out the most is that every quarterback listed has been a first-round startup pick at some point.
Daniels is currently a third-round startup pick. Having a first-round startup pick in the near future as clear realistic outcome is why we deem him as an obvious choice to return our investment.
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If you enjoyed this article, check out this one – Dynasty Values – Fantasy Football Strategy with Ian Miller (playerprofiler.com)
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