Kirk Cousins to Atlanta | Drake London and Kyle Pitts Ascend

by Joel Ybarra · Fantasy Football
Kirk Cousins Falcons

PlayerProfiler is home to award winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out. It was a wild week of free agent signings starting March 11. One of the first dominoes to fall was Kirk Cousins to the Falcons. Below, we break down the fantasy implications for the veteran QB heading to Atlanta. 

Free agency officially opened March 13. Amid a frenzy of signings, one of the biggest pieces to slide into place was the biggest-name QB on the market – Kirk Cousins. Cousins brought down $45 million per year after tearing his achilles at age 35. The signing brought on a swirl of takes on the Falcons offense. Fantasy gamers who roster Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson are salivating at the idea of Cousins commanding the Atlanta offense. Others are fading the signing, citing Cousins’ mid-tier success and the achilles tear Cousins suffered halfway through the 2023 season. Cousins is a massive upgrade, however, over the QBs Atlanta has had under center in recent seasons. Below we break down the fantasy values of each of the Falcons’ fantasy assets, including Cousins himself.

Cousins, the Quintessential Fantasy Facilitator

Cousins is a polarizing player. He has long been maligned for his statue-esque pocket presence and folding under primetime pressure. One thing is certain, however: Cousins is a high-end facilitator of fantasy production for his offensive weapons. After Falcons fans (and Pitts, London, and Robinson fantasy managers) have endured Marcus Mariota, Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder the past two seasons, the Cousins signing is like water in the desert.

We will address what to do with the Falcons offensive weapons, but first let’s take a look at what Cousins did for the offensive weapons in Minnesota the past few seasons. As we identified in this article, Cousins is one of the top facilitators of fantasy production for his pass game weapons over the past three seasons. When Cousins was on the field in 2023 (eight games), Justin Jefferson was the WR1 (four games), Jordan Addison was the WR14 and TJ Hockenson was the TE3.

Over the past three seasons altogether, Cousins’ pass catchers rank No. 2 in TE+WR PPG scoring, second only to Dak Prescott’s. Yes, Justin Jefferson was Cousins’ primary target over that entire three-year span, but for most of the season in 2022, K.J. Osborn was the only other pass catcher worth mentioning, and the Vikings were still No. 2 in WR+TE fantasy scoring. In 2021, Jefferson was the WR5 in PPG and Adam Thielen was the WR25 (min. eight games played). Cousins joins one of the most elite sets of pass game weapons in the league in Atlanta: London, Pitts, Robinson and newly signed speedsters Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore.

The QB Difference

In the past two seasons, Atlanta QBs have thrown for two or more touchdowns in a game seven out of 34 games (20.6-percent), and for more than 200 yards in just 15 of 34 (44.1-percent). By contrast, Cousins threw for two or more touchdowns in 16 of 25 games (64-percent) during that stretch, and 200-plus yards in 20 of 25 (80-percent).

Mariota’s True Passer Rating was 74.2 (No. 27) in 2022. The situation did not improve much in 2023: Ridder’s True Passer Rating was 75.5 (No 29). Cousins has perennially been top-10 in that metric: 99.8 (No. 6) in 2021, 93.1 (No. 10) in 2022 and 105.8 (No. 3) in 2023.

Offensive System

Raheem Morris was named the Falcons new head coach on January 25, 2024. He named Zac Robinson OC days later. Robinson was an offensive coach for the Rams under Sean McVay starting in 2019 – assistant quarterbacks coach, assistant wide receivers coach, then later passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Other coaches from the McVay tree include Matt LaFleur, Mike McDaniel, Kevin O’Connell, Zac Taylor, Bobby Slowik, and Dave Canales. That group has facilitated some of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL in recent years. All have ascended to head coaching positions except Slowik, who coordinated an upstart Texans offense in 2023 and remains OC in Houston.

Under Arthur Smith, the Falcons were last in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in 2023 and second to last in PROE in 2022, per nfelo. As fantasy gamers have bemoaned in recent seasons, London and Pitts have been under-utilized. London received just 6.9 targets per game in 2022 and then 6.8 in 2023 without significant competition from another quality WR. Pitts averaged 5.9 targets per game in 2022 and then 5.2 in 2023.

Paltry Production

The Falcons’ fantasy production was meager, largely due to the lack of touchdowns. London was No. 68 with 1.60 Fantasy Points Per Target in 2023 and No. 78 with 1.53 in 2022, with just six career touchdowns in two seasons. Pitts was No. 31 among tight ends with 1.54 Fantasy Points Per Target in 2023 and No. 36 with 1.28 in 2022. The elite tight end prospect has just six touchdowns to his name in three seasons. The offense just didn’t support fantasy production. That should all change under Robinson. He is voicing his intent to run an aggressive and fast-paced offense centered around the player talent in Atlanta.

The Falcons top offensive weapons, London, Pitts, and Robinson were all drafted in the top-10 in the NFL Draft. It is difficult to even evaluate their early careers because of the low-volume offense and poor quarterback play. Both London and Pitts have given signal they can produce, however, despite an anemic offense. London notched 2.40 (No. 11) and 1.91 (No. 34) Yards Per Route Run numbers over the last two seasons, respectively. Pitts had 2.07 (No. 5) and 1.44 (no. 17) marks in that metric the last two seasons. Robinson was No. 12 among RBs with 3.83 Yards Created Per Touch in 2023. The offense is guaranteed to have more volume and score more touchdowns in 2024.

Dynasty Moves to Make

Pass Catchers

The market will catch up, but London is WR13 in dynasty startups, per fantasycalc.com. Pitts is the TE9 off the board, according to Fantasycalc. The Falcons also added Mooney and Moore, but London and Pitts will be the main two targets in the passing game, along with Robinson. Robinson is costly to acquire, but Pitts and London are priced to move and will be part of one of the best passing units in the NFL in the coming season. It’s time to buy while drafters deliberate about Cousins’ recovery and catch up to the idea that all the pieces will come together for the offense in 2024. If you can acquire either Pitts or London, you should for a chance at elite production for one to two years. Mooney is also a buy and very acquirable. He will get the runoff from a high-octane passing offense.

Cousins

Conversely, Cousins himself is a sell in dynasty. Keep in mind the QBs who facilitate fantasy production for their offensive weapons are typically not the most prolific fantasy points scorers themselves. Cousins was having the season of his life before the achilles tear last season, but was still just the QB7 in PPG over eight games. He normally hovers around QB12 over a full season and will likely wind up there again in 2024, especially considering the injury. If you can capitalize on the excitement about the Atlanta offense and add a piece to Cousins and acquire Justin Herbert (especially since he is fresh out of receivers) or Tua Tagovailoa, you should make the move.

Nevertheless, the Falcons will be a fun offense to watch in 2024. It’s been a long road for London and Pitts managers, and the time is finally here. Along with the new offensive coaching staff, Cousins is the one who will finally make the offensive weapons productive. It’s about time.

Read Joel Ybarra’s article on the best passing offenses of 2023 here: The Elite Passing Offenses of 2023 | Identifying the Most Prolific Passing Units