It’s time for Start Sit Week 1 in Fantasy Football! Which players should you be starting this week, and which players should you consider benching? We will cover it all in this weekly article!
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Welcome Back, Fantasy Football!
Every week of the NFL season, fantasy gamers juggle players to insert into lineups at each position. Are you questioning which players face easy matchups and which players face tougher paths to production? You are in the right place! Outside of the obvious starts, Start Sit Week 1 decisions can be more difficult than usual to differentiate who faces an easier or tougher matchup. For seasonal leagues, DFS, and more, this week’s must start and sit picks can give you some guidance on setting your lineups. Good luck!
Quarterback
Start: Caleb Williams
Tennessee upgraded their defense this offseason, with seven of the team’s 11 starters being newcomers. This means a majority of the defense is learning a new system. It’s unlikely this scrapped-together veteran group is going to be fully gelling right away. Vegas is expecting the Bears to take advantage of the lack of chemistry, posting the No. 7-highest implied team total (24.5 points). With D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and others at his disposal, Caleb Williams is in a surefire spot to put points on the board. With a competent, rising Titans offense on the other end, the pressure will be on Chicago to keep up offensive production. The Chosen One’s NFL debut in the Windy City should be a good one.
Sit: Dak Prescott
I know what you’re thinking, but here me out here. Cleveland is notorious for dragging their opponents into a dogfight. Last season, the Browns’ defense finished No. 5 in QB Knockdown Rate, No. 6 in total sacks, and No. 2 in Defensive DVOA (ProFootballReference). They’re a nasty group who is capable of keeping this Cowboy offense in check. Dallas doesn’t have much of a run game to rely on, and their working on a new offensive line.
Working with two rookies, Dallas’ offensive line may be the worst it’s been in quite a few seasons. Furthermore, CeeDee Lamb has been away for most of training camp and matches up with Denzel Ward. This offense could very well start the year out-of-sync. Finally, Vegas isn’t too fond of the Cowboys putting up points this week. Their 19-point implied team total is 28th in the league, and their 40.5-point game total is tied for the lowest in this week’s slate.
Honorable Mentions (Starts): Jared Goff, Justin Herbert
Honorable Mentions (Sits): Brock Purdy, Deshaun Watson
Running Back
Start: Rhamondre Stevenson
While his 2023 season was mostly disappointing, his role in the Patriots offense was still desirable. His 14.5 Weighted Opportunities per Game ranks among the elite opportunity earners, much ado to his 12.8-percent (No. 12) Target Share. Stevenson saw at least five targets in six of his 11 full games last season. He was also gearing up to finish his season strongly, racking up over 330 total yards in his three games prior to injury.
RHAMONDRE STEVENSON 64 YARDS TO THE HOUSE pic.twitter.com/geXUoYWyEx
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 5, 2023
He faces a Bengals defense that finished No. 7-highest in total rushing yards and No. 4-highest in rushing yards per attempt to opposing backs last season. Finally, Antonio Gibson was a late add to the injury report with a hip issue. I expect Stevenson to dominate the backfield touches and for the OL-less Patriots to continue their trend of peppering backs with targets.
Sit: Zack Moss
Even with the Christian Barmore injury, and even with the Matthew Judon trade, this New England rush defense is not one to underestimate. Last season, they finished 4th-lowest in total rushing yards allowed despite the 4th-worst Game Script. They also allowed the 14th-lowest Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game, with the 6th-lowest Red Zone Touchdown Percentage (TeamRankings). The Patriots secondary and pass-coverage linebackers are their true achilles heel. That will be what Cincinatti attacks all game.
Moss is currently in a touch-battle with Chase Brown. The two are likely to rotate touches throughout the game, with Moss getting the edge. Without a true stranglehold on the touches, I’m skeptical that Moss is a worthwhile fantasy asset against this defense. The team may not be good, but their rush defense still demands respect.
Honorable Mentions (Starts): Jerome Ford, Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams
Honorable Mentions (Sits): Chuba Hubbard, Najee Harris, Zamir White
Wide Receiver
Start: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
It’s time. The dark days are over, and it’s time for Smith-Njigba to shine. Last season, the former Buckeye was used improperly, working mostly as a screen merchant. New OC and former Washington HC Ryan Grubbs knows JSN is ready for a true NFL role this season, praising his abilities all season. With Tyler Lockett also now dealing with injuries, Vegas is expecting a good day for the sophomore receiver. His 4.5-reception, 43.5-yard receiving line is the third-highest in the game. At +230, he’s also expected to have scoring opportunities against a soft Broncos’ secondary.
The stars are aligning for JSN’s redemption tour. Seattle wields the 11th-highest implied team total, with thorn-in-the-side Tyler Lockett set to have a limited deployment. Elite cornerback Pat Surtain will have his hands full with DK Metcalf for most of the game, opening a window for JSN to explode in the season opener. Giving up the seventh-most Yards per Pass Attempt in 2023 (ProFootballReference) and recording the third-worst Defensive DVOA (FTN), the Broncos will be a matchup to attack nearly every week this season.
Sit: Jordan Addison
I know that in most cases, being the No. 2 target on an offense facing the New York Giants would be a desirable matchup. In the case of Jordan Addison, a player I’ve been fading at cost all offseason, I’m not betting on a big fantasy week. In his short stint without T.J. Hockenson and Kirk Cousins last season, Addison drew a measly 5.7 targets per game and failed to clear 30 yards in two of the three games. His only fantasy-relevant performance came in Week 18, in a game where the Vikings were down 14 points in the third quarter, thanks to a 42-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Vegas is expecting a gross, low-scoring dogfight in the Meadowlands. Minnesota’s 21.5-point implied team total is No. 20 in the league, and their 41.5-point game total is the second lowest on this week’s slate. This should be a tight-knit contest, leaving Minnesota likely to rely on the run game and quick reads on short/intermediate routes. Neither of these fit Addison’s strengths. Addison was not a high-volume target earner last season, nor was he an efficient producer. With him, you’re still betting on a big play. There are better options available this week, like the honorable mentions listed below.
Honorable Mentions (Starts): Ja’Marr Chase (Don’t overthink it), Josh Palmer, Christian Kirk, Diontae Johnson
Honorable Mentions (Sits): Rome Odunze, Keon Coleman, Calvin Ridley (In shallow rosters)
Tight End
Start: David Njoku
David Njoku ended last season on a nuclear run. He recorded at least six receptions in eight of his last nine games, while drawing at least six targets in 12 straight games to end the season. If that weren’t enough, he produced at least 90 yards in four of his last five games (466 receiving yards in the five-game span, a 16-game pace of over 1,400 yards). Regardless of who the starting QB is for the Browns, Njoku is the No. 2 playmaker behind Amari Cooper.
The first touchdown of Sunday belongs to David Njoku!! 👏 pic.twitter.com/G8TEzY52ul
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 10, 2023
Despite Vegas pinning this game with a low point total, this is a matchup I’m looking to attack. Last season, the Cowboys gave up two explosive performances to elite tight ends George Kittle (3-67-3) and Sam LaPorta (7-84 on 12 targets). I expect Njoku to be peppered with targets and potentially find the endzone as well.
Sit: Brock Bowers
I’m excited for the career Brock Bowers has in store, but I couldn’t be less excited about him this week. For starters, Vegas’s 18.75-point implied team total is 30th in the league with the lowest full-game total (40.5 points). Further, Bowers’ receiving yards line is set to a measly 36.5 and, at +360, is a realistic long shot to find the endzone. Despite being a top pick in last year’s draft, it may be tough for him to earn a significant amount of opportunity early on. Last season, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers accounted for 54-percent of the team’s targets.
New starting QB Gardner Minshew also prefers to have a heavily consolidated target share between his top-two WRs and isn’t known for targeting his TE much. Finally, if the Raiders deploy 2-TE sets frequently, sophomore Michael Mayer will have some opportunities to steal the rookie’s thunder.
Honorable Mentions (Starts): Jake Ferguson, Tyler Conklin
Honorable Mentions (Sits): Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet
Set Your Lineups!
It has been months since we have had to say it, but it is time again to set lineups! Fire up those fingers and plug in your productive players (and bench the sits!). Check back for weekly must starts and sits based on the action that unfolds this season. Need some more options? Check out PlayerProfiler’s Upside Finder! Or, DM me on Twitter! It’s time again for a season full of ups and downs. Buckle up!
