Fantasy Football Expert | Neil Dutton Bio and Article History

2023 Injury Finder | Top 5 Surprises

by Neil Dutton

The Injury Finder for 2023 is here! These are the most important, most surpising takeaways from the Injury Finder app! Go download it today!

Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2023 | Top 5 Post-NFL Draft Fallers

by Neil Dutton

These five players fell the furthest in our Dynasty rookie rankings for 2023 once the smoke cleared from the NFL Draft. Who are they and how far did they fall?

Darnell Washington: NFL Prospect Profiles | Dynasty Fantasy Football

by Neil Dutton

Darnell Washington is one of the most athletic tight end prospects of all time. But does he can become an elite fantasy player? Should fantasy gamers be drafting him in their rookie drafts?

Michael Mayer Notre Dame: NFL Prospect Profiles | Dynasty Fantasy Football

by Neil Dutton

Michael Mayer is the TE1 in the 2023 NFL Draft Class. Get to know all the details about the prospect in our latest draft profile. Who does Mayer best compare to? How successful is he likely to be in the NFL?

Breakout Finder 2023 | Top 5 Surprises

by Neil Dutton

As the NFL Draft quickly approaches, the Breakout Finder app is here to help you DOMINATE your rookie drafts! After closely examining the numbers in the Breakout Finders, these players stood out as the top 5 surprises among the 2023 NFL Draft class. Who are those five players?

The Pace of Play Report: Week 17

by Neil Dutton

The Pace of Play Report is back for the final week of the regular season. Which offenses cranked up the pace in Week 17? What offenses need a jumpstart?

The Pace of Play Report: Week 16

by Neil Dutton

The pace at which NFL offenses operate is important. The more plays that are run, the more opportunity there is for fantasy points. Which offenses are operating at the fastest pace? Which offenses need to crank it up a notch?

The Pace of Play Report: Week 15

by Neil Dutton

What teams run at a fantasy-friendly pace of play? What teams operate in the Stone Age? All of these questions and more are answered in the Pace of Play Report!

The Pace of Play Report: Week 14

by Neil Dutton

Which offenses were operating at warp speed in Week 14? What offenses are crawling slowly along? All the answers are found here, in the Pace of Play Report!

The Pace of Play Report: Week 13

by Neil Dutton

Truth be told, there were no real dramatic shifts in pace this past week. We seem to have reached a point of the season where teams seem to know who they are. The New York Jets jumped from No. 8 a week ago up to No. 4 after playing catchup for the bulk of their loss to the Vikings. But this Jets team tends towards playing fast, so this is not an earth-shattering development. They haven't ranked lower than No. 8 all season long. What is noticeable is that over their last two games they've averaged 2.47 points per drive. In the ten games prior, this mark was just 1.74. I don't think you're coming back anytime soon, Zach Wilson.

The Pace of Play Report: Week 12

by Neil Dutton

The Denver Broncos continue to step on the gas and operate at a faster pace. They are up to No. 11 after Week 12 with a pace of play mark of 2.124. In the first six weeks of the season, the Broncos were never higher than No. 25 while dropping as low as No. 28 on occasion. This emphasis on speed has done precious little for them offensively, and it should be noted. The Broncos are No. 32 in points scored and No. 32 in the percentage of drives ending with points at 26.6-percent. Luckily, they don't have the mother of all albatrosses in a contract for their misfiring quarterback. Oh, hang on...

The Pace of Play Report: Week 11 - Run Buffalo Run

by Neil Dutton

The New England Patriots played out one of the all-time ugly on-the-eye games in NFL history against the New York Jets in Week 11. Yet, they clearly were enjoying what they were doing and wanted to savor every moment. Why else would their pace of play drop from 1.879 (No. 27) a week ago to 1.843 (No. 31)? Because the Patriots have clearly decided, in the words of the Mandalorian, that this is the way. This is another fantasy offense that we really don't want too many pieces of.

The Pace of Play Report: Week 10

by Neil Dutton

It should come as no real surprise that, when teams are losing, they might be incentivized to speed up their processes. This was evident in Week 10. The five teams that showed the biggest increase in plays per minute last week were the Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, Las Vegas Raiders, and the Atlanta Falcons. All five teams lost in Week 10.

The Pace of Play Report: Week 9 - Slowing Circling Colts

by Neil Dutton

This is the Pace of Play Report: Week 9! We're back again folks. We return once more to delve into the world of the pace of play in 2022. Our weekly look at the speed by which teams snap off their offensive plays, casting a glance at the teams who look to get two or more plays a minute run. We do this while turning our noses up (for the most part) at the teams who wait until the last possible second to run a single play. Why do we care? Because the more plays that get run, the more opportunity players have to score fantasy points, of course.

The Pace of Play Report: Week 8 - NFC South Warp Speed

by Neil Dutton

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the new speed kings of the NFL. It's been a steady climb for them in reaching a 2.250 pace of play mark. Back in Week 1, they were at 1.834, which was good for No. 27 among all NFL teams. Moving forward, this should be good news for all of their pass-catching weapons. The Buccaneers lead the NFL with a 2.17 pass-to-run ratio. Even with Leonard Fournette struggling to run the ball, his receiving role ensures he will remain fantasy viable.

The Pace of Play Report: Week 7 - Etienne Warp Speed

by Neil Dutton

The Jacksonville Jaguars increased their place of play in Weeks 6 to 7 from 2.043 to 2.105. This was one of the biggest jumps in pace across the league last week. This usage seems to coincide with their turning their backfield over to Travis Etienne. Etienne played on 81.8-percent of the Jaguars' snaps in their Week 7 loss to the Giants. He is the unquestionable lead back now with James Robinson now in New York as a member of the Jets.

The Pace of Play Report: Week 6

by Neil Dutton

The Indianapolis Colts stepped on the gas from Week 5 to Week 6. They were No. 17 a week ago with a 1.979 Pace of Play mark. Now, they sit No. 9 at 2.059. This is something to consider moving forward and makes the ancillary pieces of their offense interesting. This is especially true if they can retain their 80-percent neutral pass rate from Week 6, not to mention their 57-percent no-huddle rate. It could even elevate Matt Ryan back into the streamable conversation if he can cut down the danger plays.

The Pace of Play Report: Week 5 - Jets Soar

by Neil Dutton

Another week has gone by. Incredibly, the NFL season is already through five weeks. Goes so fast, doesn't it? Speaking of fast, it's time once again to shine the light of truth on all 32 NFL offenses as we look at how many plays per minute each team is snapping off. Yes, dear readers, it's time for the Pace of Play Report.

The Pace of Play Report: Week 4

by Neil Dutton

Greetings to fans and followers of frenetic and fast football. Welcome to another edition of the Pace of Play report where we shine a light on the fastest teams in the NFL. We glare at the teams who play at a funereal pace. We look at matches in the coming weeks slate that should produce a lot of plays. This allows you to maximize (or minimize) your exposure to players in those contests. Because players need to run plays to score fantasy points, this is another useful tool to look at when making lineup choices or setting DFS lineups. No need to thank us, though. Just enjoy and absorb.

The Pace of Play Report: Week 3

by Neil Dutton

Back once again like a renegade master, I have returned to cast my eyes over the speed at which NFL offenses are currently operating. It's time once again for the Pace of Play report. The Pace of Play is a metric that fantasy managers in all formats should be aware of. You see, we need players to make plays in order to score fantasy points. The more plays a team runs, the more chances for fantasy points there are. It's yet another useful tool to help us in making lineup choices and propel us to a title or a big DFS win. The possibilities are almost endless.

Pace of Play Report: Week 2

by Neil Dutton

Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season has come and gone. 16 more games have entered the history books. These are games from which we can pluck yet more valuable data regarding players and teams. One such data stream is the Pace of Play, which we began our weekly look at last week. Surely not much has changed over just a single week of action, I hear you say. Well, let's take a look, shall we?

Speed Freaks and Slow Coaches: The Pace of Play Report

by Neil Dutton

Speed. There are few things in the modern NFL more important than speed. Whether it's 40 times, how quickly a new signing can pick up an offense, or how fast a quarterback identifies a free rusher. You can't function in today's game without speed at the forefront of everything you do. With this in mind, we'll be taking a weekly look at each team's Pace of Play.

Meet the Metric: Shadow Rate

by Neil Dutton

Shadow Rate is “the percentage of cover snaps a defensive back is assigned to a particular receiver on the play as opposed to the side of the formation.” The leader in 2021 was J.C. Jackson, then of the New England Patriots. His Shadow Rate was 59.6. Being tasked with going everywhere their man would go does not mean that quarterbacks were afraid to target these players, of course. Nor does it mean that they were able to erase all receivers from the stat sheet.

Meet the Metric; Formation Adjusted Yards per Route Run

by Neil Dutton

Eagle-eyed regular visitors to PlayerProfiler would have noticed over the last few weeks that our player pages have begun to display a brand new metric. You can't miss it because it's in the first efficiency section. It's called "Formation Adjusted Yards per Route Run." Sounds exotic, and quite a mouthful, doesn't it? But what exactly is it? It's time to Meet the Metric.

The New Class of Tight End - 2022's Top 10 Rookies

by Neil Dutton

Trey McBride will have to compete for playing time as a rookie, especially after the Cardinals signed Zach Ertz to a healthy contract in free agency. But the news that DeAndre Hopkins will miss the first six games of the season should open up opportunities for McBride, as well as the newly acquired Marquise Brown, behind Ertz in the Cardinals' passing attack. I'm not saying he's going to be this year's Kyle Pitts. But could he be this year's Pat Freiermuth? It's possible. Greg Dulcich's workout metrics were OK without being exceptional. He was above the 63rd-percentile in all the major Workout Metrics, including a 99.1 Speed Score. With Okwuegbunam, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and Denver's desire to run the ball, it would be astonishing if Dulcich was a major contributor as a rookie. But his being drafted as early as he was should serve as a check against going overboard on Albert O in fantasy circles.

Free Falling: 10 Players Whose Combines Hindered Their NFL Prospects

by Neil Dutton

Turning up at the NFL Scouting Combine and presenting 1st percentile-sized hands is going to make you stand out, but not in the way that Kenny Pickett would have liked. David Bell had a week he would like to forget and forget quickly. He posted a 4.65 40 time, the second-lowest among all participating wide receivers. Bell then doubled down on the disappointment with a 4.57 short shuttle. Slade Bolden needed a strong week at the Combine to ensure that he would be known for more than just being the best buddy of Mac Jones of the Patriots. With the Combine in the rearview mirror, Bolden is best known for being the best buddy of Mac Jones.

Cap in Hand: Three Teams in Dire 2022 Salary Cap Straits

by Neil Dutton

Some teams face a massive struggle to become salary cap compliant while also entertaining hopes of being competitive in 2022. The Saints cap situation appears perilous to the outsider, and all the more concerning when one considers the weakness of the team heading into the new year. You can't pay everyone, that's the truth of the salary cap system. But can the Buccaneers pay anyone and remain competitive next season? Even if Tom Brady goes back on his retirement and returns, how do the Bucs keep all his toys around for another season?

Meet the Metric : Target Share v Target Rate

by Neil Dutton

In fantasy terms, we should be targeting players that command a large share of their teams' targets. But be warned, not all Target Shares are created equal. It is important that we look at a team's total pass volume to provide greater context when it comes to appreciating how much work a pass-catcher will get. Target Rate is another stat that can sound impressive in of itself. But when used in concert with other stats and metrics, it can be used to push up players that really don't need to be in our thoughts when it comes to fantasy football. It's a nice conversation starter if you want to talk to your mates about how much more work Braxton Berrios should have got in 2020. But those conversations are, I hope, rare.

Meet the Metric - Money Throw

by Neil Dutton

For the last 20 years, when considering the "money" performers at the quarterback position, the first name to mind has been Tom Brady. It should therefore surprise no one that Brady led all quarterbacks with 46 Money Throws in 2020. They accounted for 8-percent of his pass attempts for the season (610). Brady completed almost three times as many Money Throws as he threw Interceptable Passes (19). At the other end of the scale, having a quarterback who can't deliver the money plays can seriously impact a team's hopes of success in a given year. Of the 30 quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts, Nick Mullens of the 49ers had the lowest number of Money Throws. He managed just four (No. 40 among qualified quarterbacks) from his 326 (No. 29) attempts (one-percent).

2021 Rookie Tight End Landing Spots and the Fantasy Implications

by Neil Dutton

It should come as no surprise that the rookie tight with the best chance of being fantasy relevant in 2021 is Kyle Pitts. Shocking, I know. But when a team makes a player the highest-drafted tight end in NFL HISTORY, you have to assume that they have a plan to use him. The defense did not appreciably improve from the woeful unit it was last year, and should once again rely on Matt Ryan's arm, which is good news for Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and of course Pitts. Brevin Jordan joins a crowded tight end room, with players like Jordan Akins, Kahale Warring and Ryan Izzo for company. But the turbulent nature of the Texans means we don't know who will be tasked with sending the ball their way in 2021 and beyond. Jordan could emerge as this year's Chris Herndon. An unspectacular prospect who was able to post decent fantasy production as a rookie. But betting on anything positive emerging from the Texans at present is a gamble I would not like to take.

Meet the Metric - Production Premium

by Neil Dutton

Production Premium is particularly helpful when assessing players after they change teams in free agency or are traded. Two players, both making their way to new teams in 2021, featured among the top seven last season while on their old teams. Nelson Agholor posted a +26.3 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium, while Corey Davis delivered a +24.3 (No. 7) mark. At the other end of the scale, the Arizona Cardinals may have bid against themselves in signing former star A.J. Green. His 2020 campaign showed a player a long way past his best. He was neither productive, nor efficient, and finished with a -37.0 (No. 89) Production Premium.

Meet the Metric - Hog Rate

by Neil Dutton

In 2020, Mark Andrews was in on 67.1-percent of the team's offensive snaps. This was No. 26 among qualified tight ends in terms of Snap Share. His teammate Nick Boyle recorded a 66.7-percent share of the offensive playing time. But Boyle saw just 17 (No. 59) targets in his ten games. Andrews drew 89 (No. 9) targets. This worked out to a target per snap, or Hog Rate, of 4.7-percent for Boyle and 15.4 percent (No. 9) for Andrews. Jordan Reed, whenever he took to the field, was a focal point of the 49ers offense. He only logged a 36.9-percent (No. 74) Snap Share. But he posted a position-leading 19.7 percent-Hog Rate. As a result, he was able to average 0.44 (No. 8) Fantasy Points per Route Run. He benefitted from Kittle's missing time, of course. But his Hog Rate told fantasy managers that he could be plugged in as a potential streamer thanks to his usage.

Meet the Metric - Accuracy Rating

by Neil Dutton

Quarterbacks with high Accuracy Ratings are a godsend to pass-catchers; these players will see a high dose of targets that they can actually do something with. A case in point is reigning league MVP Aaron Rodgers, who finished the 2020 campaign with a 7.9 (No. 3 among qualified quarterbacks) Accuracy Rating and led the league in delivering an 81.0-percent Catchable Pass Rate. We should have high hopes for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in 2021. He posted a 7.9 Accuracy Rating a year ago, the same as Aaron Rodgers and Teddy Bridgewater. He also delivered a Catchable Pass Rate of 80.3-percent in 2020. Only Rodgers and Drew Brees were better. Yet he managed a dismal 13.8 (No. 28) Fantasy Points per Game. Can we attach some blame to the players around him? With a -7.17 (No. 26) Supporting Cast Efficiency rating, you bet we can.

Meet the Metric - Yards Created

by Neil Dutton

Looking ahead to 2021, there are players for whom a larger workload could make them bargains in redraft given their abilities to create their own yards. They figure prominently in the Yards Created per Touch standings. Current signs point to them having more touches in the new season. Notable players like J.K. Dobbins, whose 2.18 (No. 3 among qualified running backs) Yards Created per Touch trailed only Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Kenyan Drake eked his way to the RB24 in Fantasy Points per Game last season, thanks largely to his workload. He logged 192.1 (No. 15) Weighted Opportunities, but averaged 0.66 (No. 55) Yards Created per Touch. This is the eighth-lowest of the 51 running backs to earn at least 100.0 Weighted Opportunities. He is unlikely to command quite as big a workload on the Las Vegas Raiders, barring an injury to Josh Jacobs.

Meet the Metric - Target Premium

by Neil Dutton

In his rookie season, Laviska Shenault had a 7.18 (No. 55 among qualified wide receivers) Target Accuracy mark, along with a 5.0 (No. 83) Target Quality Rating. Yet he was still able to finish with a +27.5-percent (No. 8) Target Premium. With Trevor Lawrence likely to be the Jaguars quarterback in 2021, an upgrade in accuracy allied to his efficiency as a receiver can only mean good things in Year two. While a member of the Texans, Will Fuller enjoyed a 7.2 (No. 4) Target Quality Rating. His +27.2-percent (No. 2) Target Premium was far and away better than his closest teammate. But Fuller now finds himself on the Miami Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa, who had a 7.9 (No. 2) Accuracy Rating, as his quarterback. This despite having a single wide receiver with a positive Target Premium. This marriage could be good for all parties.

Underworld Rookie Mock Draft Recap #4

by Neil Dutton

Memphis is the new Running Back U. Kenny Gainwell was not a dominant college prospect, but you have to appreciate a 6.3 (79th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC average and you have to LOVE a 51-reception season being on the resume. Nico Collins is 6-4 and 215-pounds. This is elite size and carries starting outside alpha-level upside potential with it. He outproduced Donovan Peoples-Jones for two of their three college seasons together, and was held back by the poor Michigan offense. He adds an 80th-percentile Breakout Age and 92nd-percentile College YPR average. No other players have this kind of upside at this point in the draft.

Meet the Metric - Coverage Rating

by Neil Dutton

Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward drew 80 (No. 80 among qualified cornerbacks) targets in the 2020 season. Bengals cornerback LeShaun Sims, a lesser-known player than Ward, drew just 78 (No. 78) looks in 13 games. Sims was targeted on a similar scale to Ward. Therefore, these players are close in production, right? Why, hello there Mr. Strawman. Coverage Rating points out that this could not be further from the truth. The Lions traded away Darius Slay in the hopes of sliding Jeff Okudah seamlessly into his spot in the defensive backfield. This hasn't worked so far. Okudah only played nine games as a rookie. But he was targeted at a 24.8-percent (No. 6) rate. Passers completed 74.2-percent of their passes looking his way. The next pass he breaks up will be his first as a pro. Only the aforementioned LeShaun Sims posted a lower Coverage Rating than Okudah's -29.7 showing.

Meet The Metric - Unrealized Air Yards

by Neil Dutton

Not all Unrealized Air Yards are created equal. In 2020, Calvin Ridley led all qualified wide receivers with 968 Unrealized Air Yards. The player with the second-most (965) was Denver Broncos rookie wideout Jerry Jeudy. He logged 1,536 (No. 6) Air Yards thanks in no small part to his steady diet of 25 (No. 7) Deep Targets. Why the huge disparity between these two players? Putting it mildly, quarterbacks matter. A player posting a high share of Unrealized Air Yards is not necessarily a player to immediately shy away from. A target is, after all, earned by that player being good at catching the ball. That is why Jerry Jeudy is a bounceback candidate in 2021, especially if the Broncos can upgrade their quarterback. Calvin Ridley finished as the WR4 in Fantasy Points per Game in 2020 with a quarterback who was not among the elite in terms of accuracy.

Looking at the Top Free Agents in 2021

by Neil Dutton

Teams should not overpay for running backs in free agency, but they will. The only real candidate to earn a bumper payday this year is Aaron Jones. You can’t say that he has not been productive or efficient during his time with the Green Bay Packers. Since 2017, despite seeing the 18th-most Carries among all running backs (649), Jones has racked up 3,459 Rushing Yards, good for eight-most. The splits between JuJu Smith-Schuster's first two NFL seasons and his last two are quite dramatic. He settled back into his slot specialist role in 2020, leading all wide receivers with an 82.2-percent Slot Rate. Smith-Schuster finished the season with 97 (No. 7) Receptions on his 128 (No. 15) Targets, with a 95.1-percent (No. 6) True Catch Rate. He also scored nine (No. 9) Touchdowns. But he averaged a dismal 8.6 (No. 104) Yards per Reception and a dreary 6.5 (No. 96) Yards per Target.

Breaking Down the 2020 Cornerback Rankings

by Neil Dutton

According to playwright Silva Semerciyan, witches can't be burned. The same could be said in 2020 for Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander. The No. 1 corner on our rankings, Alexander led the position with a 0.0-percent Burn Rate last season. Teams couldn't find a way to beat him deep, but they also discovered that he wasn't in the mood to give up much in the short to intermediate areas of the field either. Jalen Ramsey held a host of the NFL's best wide receivers in check throughout the season. In two games matched up against DeAndre Hopkins, he was targeted 20 times, allowing 10 receptions for 76 yards combined. He was No. 7 among qualified cornerbacks with a mere 6.0 Yards per Target allowed, while his 10.1 Yards per Reception Allowed was the eighth-best mark. These marks made him a destroyer of fantasy production.

Breaking Down Daniel Jeremiah's First 2021 Mock Draft

by Neil Dutton

Teams should have moved past the whole “taking running backs in the first round” thing. But Daniel Jeremiah clearly thinks his old mate Joe Douglas hasn't, and that leads to his mocking Travis Etienne to the Jets. You can’t argue that the Jets need to not only improve their backfield, but also add playmakers all over their offense. But I’m not sure his landing with the Jets would do too much for his dynasty stock, even as the first running back to be taken. Like Henry Ruggs, Jaylen Waddle has shown a talent for flipping the field with a 20.0 (93rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Yards per Reception mark. But his 12.8-percent (9th-percentile) Target Share and 15.4-percent (12th-percentile) College Dominator Rating are concerning for a first-round prospect. As is his Breakout Age, because he doesn’t have one. This selection would ask me to give the Giants, and Jason Garrett, the benefit of the doubt. And to that I say no.

Very Very Very Very Bold Predictions from the Underworld

by Neil Dutton

D'Andre Swift has the opportunity to outscore both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor in year one. Kerryon Johnson provides little competition and Swift has an elite pedigree. Swift was taken three slots behind CEH and six slots in front of Taylor in the NFL Draft. Yet he is going far later in seasonal leagues. Look for Swift to beat out Johnson and newly-signed Adrian Peterson in the first two weeks to gain a belcow role while Taylor is still sitting behind Marlon Mack. Chris Herndon’s impressive 2018 season ranks as one of the top rookie tight end seasons of the past several years. He deserves a mulligan for his 2019 season due to his injury and suspension. He enters 2020 as the clear No. 1 tight end in a Jets offense with 186 (No. 4) Vacated Targets and a mono-free QB. Herndon is set to smash in 2020 as Sam Darnold's favorite target with the upside to be a Top 5 tight end and fantasy league-winner, especially in tight end premium leagues.

Three Sophomore Tight Ends to Stash in Dynasty Startups

by Neil Dutton

The poster child for the 2020 sophomore tight end breakout is Green Bay's Jace Sternberger. There are many intriguing reasons why this is the case. There is the shallow nature of the Packers passing game for a start. The team famously did little to strengthen their receiving corps this offseason, either via the draft or free agency. They signed Devin Funchess, who then chose to opt out of the 2020 season, leaving Davante Adams without any serious competition in the passing game. Foster Moreau faces significant obstacles to increased playing time in 2019. Though Jason Witten should only last a season in Sin City, while the expected salary cap squeeze in 2021 may impact Darren Waller's future with the team. The Raiders can release him and save the entirety of his $6.27 million salary for the season. Moreau may be able to make some noise as a touchdown-dependent player in 2020, but he can make the Raiders tight end spot his own in 2021.

Contract Year Players Who Are Fantasy Bargains in 2020

by Neil Dutton

With Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, Keenan Allen should still command plenty of looks. He was inside the top ten with 831 (No. 10 among qualified wide receivers) Completed Air Yards and 368 (No. 9) Yards after the Catch despite playing with a quarterback in Phillip Rivers who finished outside the top 15 with a 7.2 (No. 16) Accuracy Rating. We have a unique opportunity to take a player who may be one of the last true target hogs at the wide receiver position as a low-end WR2. That is a bargain. Gerald Everett wasn't as flashy as Tyler Higbee, but before the injury that opened the door for Higbee, he was having a pretty good season. He finished the year with a 14.5-percent (No. 9) Hog Rate. The fact that he only scored two touchdowns obviously hurt him a great deal from a fantasy point of view, but despite this, he put in four top 12 scoring weeks between Weeks 4-10. Plus, and this does bear mentioning, he is super athletic.

Two More Athletic Tight Ends to Target Late in Fantasy Drafts

by Neil Dutton

Blake Jarwin's efficiency metrics hint at a player that deserves far more opportunities. He was inside the top ten at the position in 2019 with 8.9 (No. 6) Yards per Target, 2.37 (No. 8) Yards per Pass Route, and a 10.7-percent (No. 8) Target Premium. He has a clearly demonstrated chemistry with his quarterback Dak Prescott, enjoying a 6.7 (No. 4) Target Quality Rating and giving Prescott a 126.6 (No. 5) QB Rating whenever he looked his way. Finally, a Cowboys tight end to get excited about. In two games without Greg Olsen last season, Ian Thomas averaged seven targets per game and 10.5 PPR points per outing. He would have done even better if he had benefited from any degree of chemistry with his quarterbacks. Thomas and the Panthers have an upgrade at quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, who was No. 2 in the NFL in 2019 with a 7.8 Accuracy Rating. When the Panthers reach the red zone, he'll be the player Bridgewater will be looking for. There is no doubting Thomas in 2020.

Five Big Veteran Losers from the 2020 NFL Draft

by Neil Dutton

The last time the Green Bay Packers spent a first-round pick on an offensive skill player was back in 2005 when they surprisingly selected Aaron Rodgers. Fast forward 15 years and, in one of the deepest wide receiver classes in living memory, Rodgers must have been secretly hoping that drought would come to an end. It did, but not in a way that Rodgers would have wanted. Instead, the Packers threw away a fourth-rounder to move up and select Jordan Love, his eventual replacement. The Detroit Lions have tried to tell us how they feel about Kerryon Johnson, but we just won't listen. They don't want to use him as an every-down workhorse. They want a running back committee. Still, we write and speak about how good it will be when Johnson is finally handed the keys to the Lions rushing attack. The team's early-second round selection of D'Andre Swift should finally convince the Kerryon truthers that this is not going happen.

Five Big Veteran Winners from the 2020 NFL Draft

by Neil Dutton

Dak Prescott was exceptional in his 2019 contract season. His +22.8 Production Premium ranked No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks, but the Dallas Cowboys have not yet locked him down with a long term contract, for reasons best known to themselves. Instead, Prescott must prove himself again whilst sitting on the franchise tag in 2020. Drafting CeeDee Lamb gives the Cowboys and Prescott arguably the best wide receiver trio in the NFL. There will be no excuses for him in 2020. While Green Bay's moves, and the organization's apparent desire to switch to a run-based offense, are not exactly good news for Aaron Rodgers, the lack of any high pedigree pass-catching reinforcements is great news for the incumbent receivers on the Packers. Primarily, Davante Adams. He was No. 4 in wide receiver Hog Rate in 2019, enjoying a 30.3-percent share of the Packers targets. This workload may be similar in 2020, albeit with fewer total targets.

Van Jefferson Rookie Profile and Fantasy Football Outlook

by Neil Dutton

Van Jefferson's inability to take part in the athletic drills at the Combine means that we have only his college production to judge him by. To be frank, it's not great. Film grinders have long been a fan, complimenting him on his many pro worthy traits. His route-running ability chief among them. He may well be a route-running savant, but the fact remains that he will be 24 years old when the 2020 season begins and spent four years in college. The 2020 wide receiver draft class is, as has been mentioned on countless occasions across countless platforms, historically deep. Therefore, there's a strong likelihood that teams that miss out early may look to correct this in the later rounds. Jefferson's route running skills, allied to NFL pedigree, should certainly see him taken. Though an awful lot would have to go right for him, and wrong for other players, for him to emerge as a fantasy-relevant contributor at the NFL level.

Stephen Sullivan Rookie Profile and Fantasy Football Outlook

by Neil Dutton

If there is one position in the NFL for which a lack of production at the college level does not immediately send out danger signs, it would be the tight end spot. There have been many instances over the years of players who played hardly a down of college football, or not a single one in some cases, that have gone on to be dominant performers at the NFL level. The fact that Stephen Sullivan did not put up gaudy numbers at LSU should not immediately mark him as one set to fail at the next level. Especially when one considers his stellar athletic profile. It is more likely than not that Sullivan will have to wait to be drafted in the NFL Draft. He is certainly more athletic than some of the other leading members of this draft class, but he has played tight end for one year and was hardly a full-time player in that year. There is much he still has to learn about the position. As such, he's not a player that I would advise aggressively targeting in rookie drafts.

Hunter Bryant Rookie Profile and Fantasy Football Outlook

by Neil Dutton

Hunter Bryant’s path to NFL production is as a move tight end, to be utilized in the passing game. His college production tells us this tale. In his first two seasons with Washington, he reeled in 33 of his 39 targets (84.6-percent) for 569 yards and two touchdowns. In his breakout 2019 season, at the age of 20 (82nd-percentile among qualified tight ends), he showed that he can handle a larger workload and be productive. Although his efficiency did dip a tad, as evidenced by his 63.4 percent Catch Rate. Bryant is one of the younger players in this draft class. Research has told us that tight ends who play their rookie season at 21-years old have a high chance of producing as top-12 fantasy performers in their careers. He's a player that may well be worth a late-round rookie selection or free agent pick up. Unless your league awards fantasy points for run blocking clearly, in which case, steer clear.

Adam Trautman Rookie Profile and Fantasy Football Outlook

by Neil Dutton

The 2020 tight end crop is not top-heavy with talent, but there are a few intriguing prospects. None more so than Adam Trautman. He boasts a 38.1-percent (97th-percentile among qualified tight ends) College Dominator Rating. These numbers are buoyed by a truly dominant final year in 2019, where he reeled in 70 receptions for 916 yards. He also scored 14 touchdowns after scoring 17 in total during his first three seasons. Trautman had a decent outing at the NFL Scouting Combine but didn’t melt any faces. His 4.80 (46th-percentile) 40-yard dash was 13th out of 17 tight end attendees. One area in which he did excel was in the 3-cone, where he paced all comers with a 6.78 time. This, coupled with a 4.27 short shuttle, gives him an 11.05 Agility Score. That earned him a place in the 95th-percentile at the position.

How 2020's Top Free Agents Fared in 2019

by Neil Dutton

Having a career season in the very year that their contract is due to expire is the dream for most quarterbacks. By this rationale, Dak Prescott's dreams came true in 2019. He set new career marks with 4,901 (No. 2 among qualified quarterbacks) passing yards and 30 (No. 4), finishing with 78 (No. 5) Deep Ball Attempts and a 48.7-percent (No. 2) Deep Ball Completion rate. It's not Prescott's fault the team chose to overpay for a running back last year. That bill has now come due. Ryan Tannehill attempted a mere 23.8 passes per game but was aided by the incredible efficiency of his teammates, benefiting from a +21.60 (No. 1) Supporting Cast Efficiency Rating. Though it should be noted that he paced his position when it came to True Passer Rating and Play Action Completion Percentage, while also posting top-six numbers in terms of Pressured Completion Percentage and Clean Pocket Completion Percentage. The Titans would be crazy to let Tannehill walk after all he achieved.

First-Round Prospects to Watch for at the NFL Scouting Combine

by Neil Dutton

Ohio State's J.K. Dobbins may be the best pick of this particular bunch of rookie running backs. Dobbins rushed for 2,003 yards in 2019, adding to his tally as the second-most productive back in the nation between 2017 and 2019. He has been pegged as a complete player at his position, and a strong showing in the Combine's athleticism drills should make him the first back taken in the draft. Listed at 5-10, 216-pounds, his 40-yard dash time will be one to wait for. Like the running backs, there are a host of wide receivers that may hear their names called within the first 32 picks. A strong Combine showing would certainly aid them in this goal. CeeDee Lamb of Oklahoma is sure to be among the first wideouts taken. Lamb had 3,292 yards in his three years as a Sooner at an absurd 19.0 yards per reception average. He also has some special teams experience, with 54 punt returns in his career. We should be looking with great interest at his 40-yard dash time.

The 2019 Quarter Pole Rookie Report

by Neil Dutton

Kyler Murray has a -12.23 (No. 29 among qualified quarterbacks) Supporting Cast Efficiency rating, and has suffered through 10 (No. 5) Dropped Passes. Still, he has gone some way towards meeting expectations as a runner. He is inside the top five in all of the key quarterback rushing categories, include Carries, Red Zone Carries and Rushing Yards per Game. The 2019 rookie wide receivers were the talk of the NFL after Week 1, when Marquise Brown, Terry McLaurin and A.J. Brown all posted 100-yard debuts. McLaurin has established himself as a starter for Washington with a 93.5-percent (No. 9) Route Participation rate. His 35.2-percent Dominator Rating is No. 18 in the NFL.

Opportunity Squeeze: 3 players set up to miss expectations in fantasy football

by Neil Dutton

Unless you play in auction leagues, you very rarely get the opportunities to pick all of your favorite players when drafting fantasy football teams. Therefore, drafts are all about finding the right players for your team at the right price. Eric Ebron was No. 1 among all tight ends touchdowns scored and led his position in Hog Rate with 18.6 percent, and end zone target share with 35.6-percent. He certainly benefited from the absence of fellow tight end Jack Doyle. Ebron scored more fantasy points in games in which Doyle played, rather than those he missed.

These players are coming back from major injuries shrouded in uncertainty

by Neil Dutton

Every single player injured during the last season of NFL football is "ahead of schedule" in their recovery. Whether they could actually "play tomorrow if needed" or they (or their team) are merely indulging in some blue sky thinking, only they can say for certain. With this in mind, we'll take a closer look at three players who all saw their 2018 campaigns cut short. In one case that players absence nearly brought his team and quarterback grinding to a halt. We shall also look at their present ADPs. A terrific bargain could be in store.

Chasing Vacated Carries: Exploiting the NFL's Greatest Running Game Voids

by Neil Dutton

The Jacksonville Jaguars spent the fourth overall selection on Leonard Fournette in 2017. After the 2018 season, with Fournette still on the roster, they have a whopping 59.3 percent of their total carries left up for grabs. Fournette looks like the biggest winners of the still young NFL offseason. Chris Warren led the NFL in rushing yards during the 2018 preseason, racking up 292 yards on 58 attempts. However, his underwhelming 16.2-percent College Dominator Rating on 8.5 rushes per game for Texas combined with lackluster athletic profile suggests Warren is incapable of shouldering a primary back workload in the NFL.

Chasing Vacated Targets: The best teams with available passing game opportunities

by Neil Dutton

The Steelers signing Donte Moncrief as a free agent isn't a resounding vote of confidence in second-year player James Washington. Moncrief profiles as a player who would play a similar role and cannibalize Washington's passing game opportunities. Some fantasy football analysts will tell you that Bruce Arians has never used a tight end in his offense, but Arians has never had a tight end who commands targets like O.J. Howard before.

3 Players Who NFL Free Agency By Default

by Neil Dutton

There are many teams, after the first and possibly second wave of NFL free agency, that on paper are much better than they were at the end of last season. But there are a host of players who should feel like they have "won" free agency thanks to a lack of activity by their team. Washington coach Jay Gruden has already talked up Trey Quinn and believes that he could be a candidate to replace Jamison Crowder as the team's primary slot receiver. Quinn will have to show that he can stay healthy for a long period of time, but he is now a defacto starter.

Breaking Down Daniel Jeremiah's Latest NFL Mock Draft

by Neil Dutton

D.K. Metcalf's fit in Buffalo just makes so much sense. Blessed with a cannon for a right arm, Bills quarterback Josh Allen just flat out loves to throw the ball deep. He averaged 5.4 deep ball attempts per game last season, a rate only exceeded by Patrick Mahomes and Joe Flacco. Daniel Jeremiah wrote prior to the Combine that he thought T.J. Hockenson was the "safest player" in the whole draft, and Hockenson's Combine performance did little to disabuse him from this notion. Hockenson was another winner from the Combine and could be the answer to the Texans tight end woes that have plagued them throughout the O'Brien era.

Biggest Tight End Winners from the NFL Scouting Combine

by Neil Dutton

The 2019 tight end class had their chance to impress the scouts and NFL evaluators in Indianapolis this past weekend. Noah Fant's freakish athletic traits were known to some way back in August, but he made sure everyone who watched him this weekend was aware of them. Kahale Warring put up decent numbers over the weekend, placing among the top four in the vertical jump, the broad jump and the short shuttle. He also demonstrated impressive speed with a 4.67 40-yard dash, the fourth fastest of the entire NFL Scouting Combine.

Searching for the Next George Kittle

by Neil Dutton

Ian Thomas looked like a rookie in his first five games. But his production (as well as his opportunities, it should be stressed) showed marked improvement down the stretch. Between Weeks 13 and 17, he played at least 76 percent of the Panthers offensive snaps in every game. Chris Herndon was a relatively unimpressive from both a production and athletic perspective. Herndon hadn’t exactly covered over this with a prolific career at the University of Miami, but he showed enough as a rookie to perhaps convince the Jets that they finally have something at the position.

Are you ready for the greatest tight end season of all time?

by Neil Dutton

When the 2018 regular season comes to an end, Rob Gronkowski will have delivered the greatest tight end season of all time. Gronkowski owns the single-season record in receiving yards (1,327 back in 2011). Oh, and receiving touchdowns too (17, also in 2011.) So how can he possibly hope to top all of this? Can Rob Gronkowski reel in these targets at his career average (15.1 yards per reception)? If so, he would smash his own yardage record. As we already know, if Gronkowski plays in more than ten games, he usually scores at least ten touchdowns. Could he seriously threaten his TD record as well?

State of the Tight End Union – NFC Edition

by Neil Dutton

While lightly used, seeing only 39 targets, O.J. Howard was one of the most efficient playmakers of all tight ends. He led all tight ends in Air Yards, Target Premium, Yards Per Target, and Fantasy Points per route among others. Evan Engram's performance as a rookie was one of the few bright spots of the New York Giants 2017 season. Since the dawn of the 21st century, only one rookie tight end has had more receptions and receiving yards than Engram.

State of the Tight End Union - AFC Edition

by Neil Dutton

The Jaguars do have 141 vacated targets from last season, as per the RotoUnderworld World Famous Draft Kit, and Seferian-Jenkins should certainly see a good chunk of them. The current makeup of this Jaguars team means a true breakout is unlikely in 2018. Jared Cook is intent on making people think this year will be THE year he truly breaks out. Well, we're heading into year ten and still waiting. To his credit, Cook did actually lead the Raiders in receiving yards with 688 in 2017.

Why DaeSean Hamilton is a discount Calvin Ridley

by Neil Dutton

The popular consensus is that to get Calvin Ridley, you'll have to pull the trigger in the first round, but a similar player to Ridley will still be there when rounds three and four come around. His name is DaeSean Hamilton. Both Ridley and Hamilton have three years of dominant production on their college résumés, and at age-23, have logged the requisite hours playing to position to become the NFL Draft's signature route-running technicians.

3 tight end breakout candidates flying way under the radar

by Neil Dutton

The 2017 rookie tight end class produced several players who are at the very forefront of the forthcoming Tight End Renaissance that will be hitting the NFL very soon. These three first-year performers offered a hint as to what they can bring to their offenses last season. Boasting an incredible 86th percentile Burst Score, a 94th percentile Agility Score, and 88th percentile Catch Radius, Stephen Anderson is poised to break out in 2018. Anderson's 13.7-percent Hog Rate was No. 7 among NFL tight ends, making him a better value than the hype-soaked Trey Burton in Chicago.

The deepest, most intriguing tight end stashes for fantasy football dynasty leagues

by Neil Dutton

A cursory look at the leading producers at tight end over the last few years shows a number of players plying their trade on a different team to the one that drafted them / gave them their initial chance in the NFL. We will look at three players who may struggle to establish a significant role on their current team. Formerly of Princeton, Seth Devalve has the pleasure/misfortune of playing for the same team as the almost uber-athletic David Njoku, which would logically cap his upside. He also had the misfortune of having Hue Jackson as his head coach in 2017, a man quite incapable of calling plays designed to take advantage of both/either of his top two tight ends.

Luke Willson just became a top fantasy football sleeper in NFL free agency

by Neil Dutton

The Lions signed former Seahawk Luke Willson to a one year, $2.5 million contract. This signing has attracted very little fanfare, but fantasy owners should at least be aware of it happening. The Lions lined up in 11 personnel, with a single tight end, 75-percent of the time in the last two seasons. That single tight end should be Luke Willson in 2018, who looks the part of a top sleeper in fantasy football leagues.

Why dynasty leaguers must stash Austin Carr before he breaks out

by Neil Dutton

Austin Carr posted a 46.8 percent College Dominator Rating, good for a place in the 92nd percentile, and after posting a 10.77 Agility Score (93rd percentile) this makes him an ideal option for the Saints in the slot. The Saints need a quality slot wide receiver, and Austin Carr has the skills to be a target hog in New Orleans. With exceptional lateral quickness, a solid history of college production, and Drew Brees throwing him the ball, why can’t Carr be a fantasy WR2?

A great Tight End Renaissance is coming to the NFL

by Neil Dutton

David Njoku, Evan Engram, O.J. Howard, George Kittle, Jonnu Smith and Gerald Everett averaged a 26.2-percent College Dominator Rating, dwarfing the college production of Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz, and Jimmy Graham. The next evolution of NFL tight end has arrived. The advanced metrics prospect profiles of younger players from David Njoku to Austin Seferian-Jenkins suggest the league is on the verge of a great TE Renaissance. There college production, however, is dwarfed by that achieved by six rookies drafted in 2017, namely David Njoku, Evan Engram, O.J. Howard, George Kittle, Jonnu Smith and Gerald Everett .

Why George Kittle is the tight end your fantasy team needs in the late rounds

by Neil Dutton

Kittle's measurables compare favorably to some of the most prominent players at his position. Kittle's demonstrated speed, burst and agility at the NFL Scouting Combine, summarized by his 124.1 (88th-percentile) SPARQ-x Score, was superior to Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Zach Ertz. Kittle enjoyed an understated rookie season. 260 of his 515 receiving yards came after contact, the 7th most at the tight end spot. The same was true for his Kittle's 8.2 yards per target was equally impressive. Incidentally, Kelce managed 8.5, while Ertz trailed them both with 7.5.

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