Underdog Fantasy ADP | Risers and Fallers (6/12/23)

by Jonathan Lange · Best Ball Plays & Strategy
Week 2 Fantasy Football

The summer is in full swing. When you aren’t taking a cool dip in the pool, or giving your yard the freshest cut in the neighborhood, we know it’s time draft on Underdog! This article is the first in a series where I will look at the constantly changing Underdog Fantasy ADP. I have compared players ADP from June 1 through June 10, so we can see how much the ADP has moved over the past ten days. Let’s dive right in!

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Riser: Alexander Mattison (Up 14 Spots)

ADP as of 06/01 – Pick No. 81 pick (mid to late Round 7)

ADP as of 06/10 – Pick No. 67 (mid Round 6)

After a lengthy stretch of inactivity, we finally saw what everyone expected. The Vikings and Dalvin Cook parted ways. The presumed RB1 in Minnesota is Alexander Mattison. Mattison has performed well in spot starts. However, there is skepticism in the fantasy community about his ability to produce fantasy points over the course of 18 weeks.

This is eerily identical to when Mike Davis went to Atlanta in 2021. The fantasy community was drafting him near the same range as Mattison. That season, Davis rushed for only 500 yards, and Cordarrelle Patterson overtook the job. Also, Ty Chandler has moved up nine spots but remains an Round 18 selection. I’m staying far away from Mattison in all drafts and all formats.

Riser: Rondale Moore (Up 21 spots)

ADP as of 06/01 – Pick No. 158 (early Round 14)

ADP as of 06/10 – Pick No. 137 (early to mid Round 12)

Rondale Moore has been rocketing up Underdog drafts mostly because of two obstacles no longer in his way. The first of those is DeAndre Hopkins. Kliff Kingsbury is the other. Moore truthers rejoice that there’s a new coach in town that might understand that Moore is built for the slot. Kliff never could commit him to the slot, and it hurt his statistical output. Hopkins’ absence clears up 96 targets from last season.

Moore’s in a prime spot to produce this season. He has had productive games when he’s allowed to operate as the primary slot receiver. Moore will have quarterback troubles until Kyler Murray comes back, so buyer beware! Still, he’s flashed enough in his two years in the league to prove that in the right situation he can be productive. The hype is real.

Riser: Tyquan Thornton (Up 20 Spots)

ADP as of 06/01 – Pick No. 184 (early Round 16)

ADP as of 06/10 – Pick No. 164 (Late Round 14)

This one was a surprise to me, honestly. Thornton got hurt in the preseason last year which put a damper on his rookie season. Additionally, he never strung together consistent fantasy production. Thornton only had two games where he finished as a WR3 or better. But the offseason puff pieces have fueled the ADP for the Thornton hype train.

Pair that with the arrival of offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and at such a late cost it’s easy to burn a late pick on Thornton. I’d much rather take Wan’Dale Robinson who is being drafted later. There are many other players at different positions such as Sam LaPorta, Kenny Pickett, Gus Edwards, or Chuba Hubbard that likely have a better chance to outproduce him in 2023. It’s hard to get excited about a straight-line burner like Thornton in an offense that already lacks creativity.

Riser: Jerome Ford (Up 12 Spots)

ADP as of 06/01 – Pick No. 179 (late Round 15)

ADP as of 06/10 – Pick No. 167 (late Round 14)

Jerome Ford has quietly lasted through nearly the entire offseason and emerged as the primary handcuff for Nick Chubb. Ford hasn’t made many major impressions at Browns camp. However, it’s important to note that the team decided to move on from Kareem Hunt and later elected to not bring in anyone. Sure, Demetric Felton is there, but he is more of a pass catching back that would be unable to carry the load in the event of an injury. The rise in ADP is absolutely justified. Additionally, it’s a great process to grab a handcuff late in best ball drafts.

Riser: Elijah Moore (Up 7 Spots)

ADP as of 06/01 – Pick No. 97 (early Round 9)

ADP as of 06/10 – Pick No. 90 (early to mid Round 8) 

Once thought to be dead and buried with the Jets organization, Elijah Moore is alive and well with the Cleveland Browns! The Browns traded for the wide out to fit a need as they are wanting to operate a pass first offense. However, they had little depth behind Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Moore finished his rookie season with three games as a WR1. This didn’t last, sadly. Chemistry issues with Zach Wilson and disagreements with the coaching staff put him in the doghouse. This ultimately led him to the dog pound! The hype is legitimate for Moore!

Faller: Josh Downs (Down 12 Spots)

ADP as of 06/01 – Pick No. 175 (mid-Round 15)

ADP as of 06/10 – Pick No. 187 (mid-Round 16)

Josh Downs was selected in the third round of the NFL Draft by the Colts. While fans loved his tape coming out of North Carolina, the excitement clearly took a hit as the receiver fell out of Round 2 of the NFL Draft. The reason for the ADP drop is simple. A knee injury has kept him out of OTA’s.

There hasn’t been much made public about the injury. Therefore, keep an eye out for any news coming out of Indianapolis on his knee. The ADP drop is large. However, he goes so late in drafts, it’s barely noticeable. He could become a key cog in this offense but his health is a concern.

Faller: Trey Lance (Down 9 Spots)

ADP as of 06/01 – Pick No. 184 (early Round 16)

ADP as of 06/10 – Pick No. 193 (early Round 17)

After being burned last season, it’s hard to find fantasy gamers excited to select Trey Lance in any format this season. His injury and uncertainty were baked into his ADP. However, the latest news responsible for the drop in June falls solely on the restructured arm of Brock Purdy. Purdy completed a surgical repair of his UCL rather than a complete restructure. This puts him on pace to be available to start in late August. This is Tough luck for Lance because he never did anything wrong. Lance is a complete wildcard to take at the end of your draft.  Sure, there is a chance he could be traded. Unfortunately, I’m afraid history will repeat itself and we shouldn’t expect much from Lance this season.

Faller: Kyler Murray (Down 15 Spots)

ADP as of 06/01 – Pick No. 152 (late Round 13)

ADP as of 06/10 – Pick No. 167 (late Round 14)

This ADP drop is very understandable. Kyler Murray has dropped more than a full round due to the timing of his ACL recovery. We’re looking at him returning in the middle of the season, but the great fear here is that Arizona is not a very good team. Why would they rush him back and eliminate their potential of having a top five draft pick? It’s rare to find a quarterback as talented as Murray this late, and I would smash the draft button in Round 14 for a shot at a top 8 quarterback for the second half of the season.

Faller: Michael Mayer (Down 10 Spots)

ADP as of 06/01 – 189th pick (late 16th round)

ADP as of 06/10 – 199th pick (mid-17th round) 

In early June, we heard reports that the Raiders can elect to void all of Jimmy Garoppolo‘s contract if he is unable to pass a physical before the start of the season. He had foot surgery that he is currently recovering from. Once the fantasy community got wind of this it affected nearly all Raider skill position players, but most notably Michael Mayer. Mayer not only has to adjust as a rookie in the NFL learning the game, but he could be stuck with Aidan O’Connell, Brian Hoyer, or another quarterback that is currently a free agent. The ADP slide is real, but again, at such a late price tag of Round 17, he can be an acceptable draft pick if you need to select a tight end late at the end of your draft. All the negativity could go away if Garoppolo proves he is healthy.

Faller: Jeff Wilson (Down 7 Spots)

ADP as of 06/01 – Pick No. 167 (late Round 14)

ADP as of 06/10 – Pick No. 174 (mid-Round 15)

This was the smallest drop of all the fallers, but I felt it was important to end with Jeff Wilson and his teammates. Jeff Wilson fell seven spots while Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert fell six spots each. This is primarily due to the buzz of Dalvin Cook being linked to the Dolphins.

Cook is much more talented than the other three backs. But with a history of shoulder injuries, even if he were to go to Miami one of these three would step up and be able to produce fantasy points in a pinch! Even if Cook lands in Miami, one of those guys is worth a late round dart throw.

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