The landscape is ever-changing in dynasty fantasy football leagues. One area that demands particular attention is the aging quarterbacks, where the dynamics differ significantly from other positions. Unlike running backs and wide receivers who often experience a sharp decline in production after reaching their thirties, quarterbacks can defy conventional wisdom. In this article, we delve into dynasty fantasy football’s age apex quarterbacks, and which fantasy football trades you should make at their current price tag.
Check out my other articles in this series: Dynasty Running Backs Past the Age Apex, Dynasty Wide Receivers Past the Age Apex
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys | Age: 29
Dak Prescott, despite his youth and potential, may not offer the long-term fantasy value that many managers anticipate. With a decline in rushing production, and a notable decrease in fantasy points per game over the past two seasons, Prescott’s ceiling is as a low-end QB1. Considering his high value, fantasy managers could make a strategic move by selling Prescott to upgrade to more promising young quarterbacks.
Prescott’s rushing production has steadily decreased in recent years, failing to surpass 200 rushing yards in a season since 2019. Moreover, he has recorded only eight rushing touchdowns over the last four years. This is a significant drop from his early career success. At 29 years old too, it is unlikely that his rushing production will return to previous levels.
Although Prescott remains a reliable passer, his fantasy ceiling is likely capped as a low-end QB1 most years. This is evident from the decreasing fantasy points per game he has produced over the past two seasons. While he can provide consistent numbers, his overall upside may be limited compared to other quarterbacks with more dynamic rushing abilities or superior offensive situations.
Dak Prescott Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Given Prescott’s current high value in fantasy football leagues, managers can take advantage of his market worth to upgrade their quarterback position. Trading him for promising young talents like Trevor Lawrence or Lamar Jackson, who offer long-term potential, can be a savvy maneuver. Explore adding on a young WR2 such as Jordan Addison or Jerry Jeudy to complete the deal.
2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook: Sell
Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings | Age: 34
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Kirk Cousins, often underrated in dynasty fantasy football leagues, has consistently finishing among the best fantasy quarterback over the last several seasons. While lacking rushing ability, his situation, affordability, and potential for increased passing volume make him an attractive buy for contending teams.
Cousins has proven himself as one of the most reliable fantasy quarterbacks, finishing as a top 12 option for three consecutive seasons and ranking as the QB6 in 2022. The Vikings’ adoption of a pass-friendly offense, led by head coach Kevin O’Connell, has led to an increase in passing opportunities for Cousins. He set a career-high with 643 pass attempts in 2022, with the potential to push closer to 700 in 2023.
Kirk Cousins Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
With Dalvin Cook‘s departure as well, the Vikings are likely to rely more on Cousins’ arm. With only Alexander Mattison of note in the backfield at the moment, this bodes well for Cousins’s fantasy outlook.
Compared to other quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Cousins offers a more affordable option without sacrificing production. His relative affordability makes him an enticing acquisition for dynasty managers. Cousins’s value as a buy in dynasty leagues though is primarily for contending teams. While his age and the Vikings’ potential desire for change in the future are worth considering, his immediate potential and affordability make him a valuable asset.
2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook: Buy
Russell Wilson – Denver Broncos | Age – 34
Russell Wilson, despite a dip in performance in 2023, presents a compelling opportunity for dynasty fantasy football managers. With a track record of consistent top 10 fantasy finishes and a new head coach in Sean Payton, Wilson’s current low ranking and discounted value make him an intriguing buy. While his rushing upside has diminished, his arm talent remains intact, and a run-first scheme under Payton could rejuvenate Wilson’s fantasy production.
For eight consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2020, Wilson finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Prior to 2023, he had never recorded a QBR ranking lower than No. 15 in the league, underscoring his consistent success over the years.
With the arrival of head coach Sean Payton too, Wilson is poised to benefit from a more effective offensive game plan. Payton’s track record of success and ability to design innovative schemes can boost Wilson’s fantasy value. Coming from a run-first scheme in Seattle, Wilson should be comfortable in Payton’s system, potentially leading to more efficient production.
While Wilson’s rushing production has declined, there is no indication that his arm talent has diminished. His Accuracy Rating has notably dipped in the last two seasons, however this has more to do with decision making rather than ability. With the potential for a revitalized offensive scheme and a talented pass-catching arsenal, Wilson possesses the upside to return to QB1 territory in fantasy leagues.
Russell Wilson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Due to his recent performance decline, Wilson is available at a historically low price in dynasty leagues. Contending teams can explore sending a late first-round pick or offer a promising up-and-coming wide receiver like Christian Watson to acquire Wilson. Such a trade provides an opportunity to secure a potential QB1 at a discounted cost.
2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook: Buy
Derek Carr – New Orleans Saints
Age – 32
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Derek Carr‘s move to the New Orleans Saints after eight years with the Raiders presents an opportunity for dynasty fantasy football managers to consider selling him. He is coming off a subpar season, characterized by poor performance across nearly every statistical category. Carr’s limited upside, lack of rushing production, and potential decline as he enters his 30s make him a sell candidate. Despite the scarcity of the quarterback position in superflex leagues, it is still possible to find value by trading Carr.
Carr’s 2021 season was arguably his worst since his rookie year, as evidenced by various statistical indicators. He ranked No. 23 in True Passer Rating and No. 20 in fantasy points per drop back. With only one season surpassing 30 touchdowns in his career and ranking No. 2 in interceptions over the last two seasons, Carr’s recent performance raises concerns about his fantasy outlook.
Derek Carr Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
His fantasy ceiling is also capped due to his limited skill set and lack of rushing production. Without the ability to contribute significant rushing yards or touchdowns, he relies heavily on his passing performance to deliver fantasy points. With his inconsistent play and the aforementioned statistical declines, it is unlikely that Carr will experience a significant uptick in fantasy production or emerge as even a valuable QB2 in the future.
While Carr’s recent performance and potential limitations may have diminished his value, the scarcity of the quarterback position in superflex leagues can still yield reasonable trade opportunities. By shopping Carr, fantasy managers can seek a return of assets like a late first-round pick or a promising player such as Jerry Jeudy, enhancing their roster’s long-term potential.
