Welcome to the Week 16 DFS Cash Game breakdown and picks article! If you’re new to this article or DFS cash games, please check out my ’10 Rules to Live By’ article.
Happy Holidays everyone! We are really in the home stretch here. The big season long contests are in their playoff seasons rewarding players with millions of dollars. The Best Ball Tournaments are in the elimination rounds and our beloved season long leagues are in the semi finals. Exciting times!
Let us not forget about DFS though. We are down to the last three weeks of the season. This is an interesting week with the majority of the games falling on Christmas Eve. There is nothing better than sweating out a big win with your entire family around the Christmas Eve dinner table. Of course, there is nothing worse than losing out on tens of thousands of dollars because of some garbage time touchdown Uncle Bobby is cheering for because it just helped him win his toilet bowl, but I digress.
On to the week 16 DFS Cash game picks!
Week 16 DFS Cash Game Picks:
QUARTERBACK
Justin Fields
FanDuel: $8300
DraftKings: $7100
Quarterback ended up being pretty easy to pick out this week. Justin Fields pops well ahead of the rest of the field on both sites. I would expect his ownership to be around 70-percent which is extremely high for a cash game quarterback. Now, I would never shy away from playing someone because they are highly owned in cash games. It’s just worth noting that the margins will be thin this week between winning and losing.
The reason Fields is such a standout play is the Cardinals have the No. 31 ranked pass defense in DVOA. Fields being a running quarterback can also exploit their No. 30 ranked DVOA run defense as well. If you can’t stomach taking a quarterback that plays for the Chicago Bears, I’d either pay up to Dak Prescott or down to Nick Mullens.
Running Back
Ty Chandler
FanDuel: $6900*
DraftKings: $5500
With Alexander Mattison out last week, Ty Chandler had a fantastic week going 23-132-1 on the ground. There was also some explosiveness to his game with him breaking off a 30-yard run. Whether Mattison is in or not, I would feel safe playing Chandler on DraftKings at his price. The star next to his salary on FanDuel is to note it is a lot closer if Mattison is in and playing. If Mattison is out, I am plugging him in. If Mattison is in, well then, I will have to give it some more thought and run the updated projections at that point. With this being a noon game, you will have a clear picture of what is happening Sunday morning and will be able to adjust accordingly.
Rachaad White
FanDuel: $7700
DraftKings: $7400
The PlayerProfiler darling Rachaad White is back here where he belongs. He was championed as a buy all offseason and he has absolutely delivered.
There is zero competition for the carries in Tampa Bay, and I absolutely love that when it comes to cash games. There is also a narrative out there that White is inefficient and only a volume guy. While I can find some stats that back that up, there is also a stat I love called Yards Created. It just so happens that White has 1,005 Yards Created (No. 2) on the season. He is the No. 1 play on FanDuel this week and should be in your lineups on both sites.
Bijan Robinson
FanDuel: $7100
DraftKings: $7500
Bijan Robinson has not delivered the breakout rookie season we all hoped for. With that being said, he has been solid and has seemed to be gaining traction here down the stretch. There is quite a bit of competition for the No. 3 spot here depending on the site.
If I had to pick one guy to play on both sites, it would be Robinson. On DraftKings other options are Breece Hall at $6100 and Jonathan Taylor (If Moss is out) at $7200. Devin Singletary is another great salary saver if Dameon Pierce is out. Lastly, if you for some reason have a Cowboys affliction, Tony Pollard is fine as your last piece in.
WIDE RECEIVER
Calvin Ridley
FanDuel: $6800
DraftKings: $6300
It’s actually been pretty difficult to pick a first option at wide receiver this week. With Christian Kirk going down, Calvin Ridley has established himself as the clear No. 1 in Jacksonville.
Dontayvion Wicks
FanDuel: $5400
DraftKings: $4300
Last week, Jayden Reed was the top player in my model. This week he is banged up. If he sits, Dontayvion Wicks will make for a great play. It appears the Packers are favoring him over Romeo Doubs. We don’t have a lot of other stats and information on Wicks at this point, so we just have to go off what we do have.
Last week, even with Reed in for the majority of the game, Wicks had seven targets that he turned into 6-97-0. With Reed and Watson out, you would have to think that last week’s stat line is his floor.
The Discount Shopping Bin
You used up all your money on your more expensive presents. It looks like this week on DraftKings particularly you will have to buy at least one cheap wide receiver for your lineup.
Jameson Williams Stats & Metrics Profile
Enter Jameson Williams, $3700. Over the last four weeks he has actually started to become a contributing player on the Detroit Lions. He is nowhere near living up to expectations, but this has been an improvement. Jonathan Mingo at $3600 is the next option. His targets regressed last week, but the two weeks prior he had nine and 10 targets respectively. The cheapest and riskiest option is Treylon Burks at $3100. Similar to Williams, he has yet to live up to expectations, but he did catch all three of his targets last for 61 yards. That doesn’t sound great, but when he is averaging 20 yards per reception, it doesn’t take a huge amount to pay off that price tag.
TIGHT END
Trey McBride
FanDuel: $7000
DraftKings: $5700
It has been a pleasure to watch Trey McBride‘s breakout. On DraftKings, McBride is way too cheap for his production. On FanDuel, I’ve been finding myself in the 5,500 range most weeks, so McBride feels a bit more expensive over there. But again, for his production he is well worth it.
Trey McBride NFL Career Stats
McBride has put up some great yardage stats. However, when looking at his touchdown numbers, there is actually still significant upside still left on this bone. He only has two touchdowns all year. McBride is getting it done with receptions and yardage though and has had back-to-back games above 15 FanDuel and 20 DraftKings points. Marquise Brown is also going to be out this week further boosting up McBride’s projections.
DEFENSE
New York Jets
FanDuel: $5000
DraftKings: $3100
The Jets do grade out as the top defensive play on both sites. On DraftKings they are THE cash game defense to play. Washington has been a team we have targeted all year with our defenses. They give up a lot of sacks and like to slang the rock which can lead to more opportunities for interceptions and fumbles. It is hard for me to pay up to 5,000 on FanDuel. It is surprising the model is liking them at that price point. I probably will end up needing to save some money for cash games but will definitely mix them in tournaments.
Digging a little deeper here, on FanDuel I would actually look to the other side of the same game. Washington’s defense is only $3800 on FanDuel. The Jets are starting Trevor Siemian. Siemian is the guy who hasn’t been able to beat out Zach Wilson on a regular basis. Enough said. Lastly, Seattle at $3500 would be my punt defense if I really need to find a few hundred more in salary.
Conclusion
With the smaller slate this week of nine games, there is going to be significant overlap in lineups. I still maintain you want to play the best plays and let those small parts of the field knock themselves out by trying to get too cute.
For tournaments this week, I’ll double down on Fields. Chicago is a dumpster fire, and I could easily see a lot of scoring in that game even with the Cardinals down some weapons. A few weeks ago, if this game was on the schedule, my target would have been the Vikings/Lions game. However, that Vikings defense has really kept things in check, and I have not seen anything I like so far from Nick Mullens. Have a great time enjoying football with your families and friends and best of luck this week!
