This is NFL Best Bets Week 17! Here, we provide our best game line bets for the NFL slate each week on sportsbooks.
Each week’s article features picks on either the moneyline, spread, game total, or team total. For each bet, we will provide a wager size recommendation (note: 1 unit = 1% of your gambling bankroll). It’s important to keep your exposure disciplined and stick to the recommendations. It is always worth line-shopping at the time you place your bet so that you can get the best value available online.
In Week 16, we witnessed two brutal beats on the way to two losses. The Vikings lost T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison midgame and still had a chance to not just cover the spread but win outright on their final possession. However, a fourth Nick Mullens interception did Minnesota in for good and they fell by six. On Monday Night Football, we got a great read on the Ravens and 49ers defenses having a slugfest early. However, Brock Purdy put up too poor of a performance to watch our “under” survive as he threw four picks on the way to the Ravens converting short-drive touchdowns all game long.
Let’s get back on track with these two bets on the books for Week 17.
1 Unit: Panthers +6.5 (-108, DraftKings)
The Carolina Panthers have been the worst team in the NFL this season. This is mostly thanks to their No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young performing as one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. However, after firing head coach Frank Reich, they have played a bit more inspired. They have gone 3-1 against the spread. Additionally, they nearly won outright in a shootout in Week 16.
In that four-week span, Carolina’s defense ranks No. 12 in rush EPA per play allowed. That does not bode well for a Jaguars offense that might need to rely more on the run with wide receiver Christian Kirk out, wide receiver Zay Jones questionable, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence questionable. If Lawrence is ruled out after playing through injuries over the last few weeks, this line will likely not close at 6.5. Even if he plays, he will have to do so against a Panthers defense that ranks No. 12 in pass rush win rate. This season, Lawrence ranks No. 27 in completion percentage and No. 23 in catchable pass rate under pressure.
Carolina’s Offense
Of course, the biggest concern for Carolina has been their offense. However, over the last four weeks, Young has been trending up ever so slightly. Young ranks around the middle-of-the-pack among qualified quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play and success rate. In that span, he also leads the league in air yards per attempt. Carolina’s coaching staff is allowing him to let it fly downfield. That’s tough news for a Jaguars defense that No. 26 in dropback EPA per play allowed since coming off their Bye in Week 10. Additionally, the Jaguars have allowed the No. 12-most air yards per attempt this season.
Vegas is rightfully not extremely high on either offense in this matchup. That just means this is too many points for the team that has recently been showing signs of life. Since the 2018-19 season, underdogs in games with a total less than 42.5 are 203-146-10 against the spread. This is good for a 58.2% win rate.
1 Unit: Bengals +7 (-110, DraftKings)
The Cincinnati Bengals have taken a ride on a roller coaster of emotions this season. Franchise quarterback Joe Burrow played through injuries to open the season, got off to a slow start, then brought the team back on track, only to get re-injured and get ruled out for the remainder of the season. Under new quarterback Jake Browning, Cincinnati pulled off some wins against playoff-caliber teams. However, in Week 16, Browning was finally exposed against a motivated Steelers defense and was blown out of the building in a 34-11 loss.
The real identity of the Bengals is likely somewhere in between the magic from a few weeks ago and the bludgeoning they suffered last week. Browning has posted a 6.6 accuracy rating, 79.1% true completion percentage, and 87.5% catchable pass rate. All of these metrics would put him in league-leader territory if he qualified.
He has been very capable in his few starts. This is especially when Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins play together. Now, Browning faces a Chiefs defense that ranks No. 17 in EPA per play allowed since coming off their Bye in Week 11. With Chase’s status trending up for Week 17, now would be the time to buy low on Cincinnati before the books potentially jack up the prices on their offense.
Who are the Chiefs?
On the other hand, we know exactly who the Chiefs are. This Chiefs team has the worst group of pass catchers Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have had in their career together. In addition to taking a step back on defense, no wide receiver other than Rashee Rice has posted a replacement-level season and cannot be trusted to take advantage of Cincinnati’s weaknesses in their secondary.
In Patrick Mahomes‘ NFL career, he is 32-39-2 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 points or higher. Although he is still arguably the league’s most talented quarterback, his supporting cast is still poor. Additionally, the books continue to give way too much unearned respect to their present roster. The Bengals are still playing for a playoff spot. Therefore, it is the right bet to count on them for a bounce back fight to at least keep the game within a possession.
