This is Week 17 NFL Best Bets! Here, the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly—a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In Week 16, our picks went 1-3. This was a rare stinker of a week in this regular season. Looking for a bounceback this week, we return with four best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Tipton. These picks come with odds that you can only get at BetOpenly.
As a reminder, BetOpenly has launched peer-to-peer player props. You now can also get better odds than you can at a traditional sports book. A traditional sportsbook charges 10-percent juice on average. When you see a player prop for -110 at another book, you will generally see that prop at BetOpenly for +108 to +100. That is massive savings and a value you cannot get anywhere else.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly, and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads). Additionally, bettors can combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail them with discipline. Please, stick to your normal wagers. Don’t chase wins or losses. Play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 17 Picks
Jared Goff (DET) OVER 0.5 interceptions (-104)
Jared Goff has only cleared this line in one of his last five games. However, in that span, he still has five turnover-worthy plays. On the season, he has struggled when facing defenses with playmaking potential. He has at least one interception in five of seven games against teams ranking in the top-14 in PFF coverage grade and two of four games against teams in the top-13 in pressure rate. The Dallas Cowboys rank No. 12 and No. 4 in those metrics, respectively. Goff’s pass attempt line is at 35.5 for good reason. Detroit has to throw the ball to have a shot in this game. Goff has thrown an interception in five of his nine games with at least 35 pass attempts.
You have to pay -120 juice on most sportsbooks for this prop. On BetOpenly, you can get this play for nearly-even money.
Cincinnati Bengals Spread +7 vs. Chiefs (+100)
The Cincinnati Bengals have taken a ride on a roller coaster of emotions this season. Franchise quarterback Joe Burrow played through injuries to open the season, got off to a slow start, then brought the team back on track only to get re-injured and get ruled out for the remainder of the season. Under new quarterback Jake Browning, Cincinnati pulled off some wins against playoff-caliber teams. In Week 16, Browning was finally exposed against a motivated Steelers defense and was blown out of the building in a 34-11 loss.
The real identity of the Bengals is likely somewhere in between the magic from a few weeks ago and the bludgeoning they suffered last week. Browning has posted a 6.6 accuracy rating, 79.1-percent true completion percentage, and 87.5% catchable pass rate. All of these metrics would be in league-leader territory if he qualified. Browning has been very capable in his few starts, especially when Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins play together. Now, he faces a Chiefs defense that ranks No. 17 in EPA per play allowed since coming off their Bye in Week 11. With Chase’s status trending up for Week 17, now would be the time to buy low on Cincinnati before the books potentially jack up the prices on their offense.
Who Are the Chiefs?
On the other hand, we know exactly who the Chiefs are. They are a roster that is comprised of the worst group of pass catchers that Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have played with during their career together. In addition to taking a step back on defense, no wide receiver other than Rashee Rice has posted a replacement-level season and cannot be trusted to take advantage of Cincinnati’s weaknesses in their secondary.
In Patrick Mahomes‘ NFL career, he is 32-39-2 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 points or higher. Although he is still arguably the league’s most talented quarterback, his supporting cast is still poor, and the books continue to give way too much unearned respect to their present roster. The Bengals are still playing for a playoff spot, and it is the right bet to count on them for a bounce back fight to at least keep the game within a possession.
Trevor’s Week 17 Picks
Rachaad White (TB) OVER 91.5 rush+rec yards (-121)
In the upcoming NFC South matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints, all eyes will be on Rachaad White as he looks to surpass 91.5 rushing and receiving yards. The Buccaneers’ running back has been making waves in all season, and this weekend’s game could be a defining moment for him. Let’s delve into the reasons why White is poised to have a stellar performance against the Saints.
In White’s last ten games, he has averaged 17.2 rushing attempts, four receptions, and has beat this line eight out of ten times. This impressive form, coupled with the Saints’ defensive struggles, suggests that White could be in for a big game on the ground. Furthermore, his ability to contribute in the passing game adds another dimension to his potential impact on the game.
Carolina’s RBs
Carolina recently had Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders each go for (87-74) on the ground against the Saints and even the non-catching Derrick Henry had (56) receiving yards against the Saints this season. Tampa Bay’s offensive line has been steadily improving, which bodes well for White’s chances of breaking through the Saints’ defensive front. Tampa has one of the better pass blocking matchups this week. With Mayfield still at the top of the league in checkdowns, we expect White to break one in this game.
The Buccaneers’ playoff aspirations are as follows: with a win against the Saints, the Buccaneers can clinch the NFC South title and secure a playoff berth. This added motivation could propel White to perform at an even higher level, as he looks to help his team achieve its ultimate goal. This line is currently -140 at most sportsbooks, but you can get at BetOpenly for -121.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) OVER 6.5 receptions (-140)
Death, Taxes, and Michael Pittman with eight receptions a game in 2023. In the ever-evolving landscape of the NFL, few things are certain. One of those few certainties is the consistent performance of Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman. This week, as the Colts face off against the Las Vegas Raiders, we’ll take a look at why Pittman is poised to have more than 6.5 receptions in this pivotal matchup. Before taking a vicious illegal hit in the Steelers game, Pittman was well on his way to his seventh straight game with more than 6.5 receptions.
Despite the presence of promising rookie Josh Downs and veteran Alec Pierce, the Colts have yet to establish a clear WR2 to complement Pittman. This lack of a consistent secondary receiving threat means that quarterback Gardner Minshew will likely continue to target Pittman heavily. The Colts do get Jonathan Taylor back this week. However, with the recent struggles in the running game, it’s no secret that they’ll be looking to exploit the Raiders’ pass defense. The Raiders’ secondary has been less than stellar this season. They are allowing an average of 226.9 passing yards per game. However, more importantly, they give up a 71.8-percent catch rate. This vulnerability in the Raiders’ defense is a golden opportunity for Pittman to shine again for the Colts.
Pittman’s Production
In the past two seasons, Michael Pittman has consistently led the Indianapolis Colts in receiving yards. This season, he has already accumulated 99 receptions for 1,062 yards and four touchdowns. His performance has been a bright spot in an otherwise challenging season for the Colts. The last ten games he is averaging 11.4 targets and 8.2 receptions in spite being knocked out against the Steelers after only four receptions. Pittman has a 30-percent target share. We do not expect to see any less with the former Trojan this week returning from a concussion.
With the Colts fighting for a playoff spot, and the Raiders looking to play spoiler, this game carries significant weight for both teams. The Colts will be looking to their star receiver to make an impact and help secure a victory. This line is going to close at 7.5 and is currently priced better at BetOpenly than any other market.
