I have drafted around 300 Underdog best ball teams since the Big Board dropped in late January. There are a ton of players who I love at their current ADP and a ton of players I just can’t click the draft button on at their current ADP. In this article, I’m going to be giving you players on both sides of the coin.
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Players I LOVE at ADP
Garrett Wilson | Overall ADP 11.2, WR8
I truly think Garrett Wilson belongs in that tier of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. We have seen the talent. We have seen him produce when he has just average QB play. And now that Aaron Rodgers is back and healthy (hopefully), it’s time to click the button on Wilson and feel great about it.
I’m taking Wilson over A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua and Breece Hall, all of whom go ahead of him in the first round.
Josh Allen | Overall ADP 33.9, QB1
Drafting Josh Allen in the mid to late third round feels like an absolute steal right now. I don’t understand how he was going in the middle of the second round last year. He paid off that price by finishing as the QB1 overall, but then his ADP falls to the third round in 2024?
I think drafters last year wanted to stack Allen with Stefon Diggs who was a first round pick, so it was just chalk to draft Allen in the second round. For 2024, Allen’s pieces are very easy to stack up and one of them is going to be a huge value when it is all said and done. Don’t overthink it, just draft Josh Allen!
Cooper Kupp | Overall ADP 34.7, WR24
Are we 100-percent sure Puka Nacua is the WR1 on the Rams right now?
In a format like Underdog centered around “upside,” Cooper Kupp in the third or fourth round feels like stealing. The WR1 overall finish is well documented. He has produced when he’s been on the field since then as well. The only problem is he’s struggled to stay on the field.
At the end of the day, Cooper Kupp is 100-percent a guy who can beat you. If he can play 15-plus games in 2024, it feels like he’s going to finish a lot closer to Puka than his current ADP would suggest.
Evan Engram | Overall ADP 76.0, TE8
In 2023, Evan Engram led ALL tight ends in targets and receptions and it’s like no one cares! Not to mention Calvin Ridley‘s 136 targets are also vacated from the offense. And yes, the Jags have added Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis to the receiving corps, but I wouldn’t classify them as “target earners.”
They feel a lot more like one trick ponies who can beat you deep or beat you with size, not guys who are going to command an abundance of targets like Engram will this season. As a guy who was the TE6 in average points per game last year, you should feel great about making him the cornerstone of your tight end room in any draft.
Alvin Kamara | Overall ADP 67.2, RB17
Here is a list of players who Alvin Kamara (RB6) finished ahead of in average points per game: Jahmyr Gibbs, Rachaad White, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Isiah Pacheco and many more!
New Orleans lost Michael Thomas and added Taliese Fuaga in the first round of the Draft this offseason. Those are both positive for Kamara. Yes, he’s getting up there in age, but so are all of the other running backs who he outproduced last year and are currently being drafted ahead of him. If you are a “Zero RB” drafter, Kamara is the perfect target for that build in the fifth round.
Noah Fant | Overall ADP 187.6, TE24
For the record, this is my first year really being a Noah Fant Stan, and I’m not just in, ALL IN!
The new OC hire of Ryan Grubb in Seattle is what has me the most excited about Fant. Grubb is going to save this offense from the depths of heavy 12-personnel and give it a modern look by passing the ball out of 11-personnel. Not only that, Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly are gone. And the new regime sought out Fant and re-signed him to a two-year, $21 million deal! That’s a pretty sizable amount of money if you ask me.
The talent is there. The opportunity is there. And as a guy you can scoop up for free in the 16th round or later, why not take the shot? I will have at least 30-percent exposure to Fant this season.
Players I HATE at ADP:
Puka Nacua | Overall ADP 9.3, WR6
Puka Nacua is a really hard click for me at his current price given the fact I just don’t know if he’s the clear cut No. 1 wide receiver in the Rams offense. Like I said before, it feels like if Kupp can just stay healthy, he’s going to still be very much involved and is someone I could 100-percent see outscoring Puka.
You shouldn’t completely fade anyone in the first round. Nacua is a guy who can beat you, but he will almost certainly be my least drafted player from the first round.
Sam LaPorta | Overall ADP 28.4, TE1
This one is almost strictly about price and not so much about the player. For me, it comes down to would you rather have Sam LaPorta in the beginning of the third round? Or would you rather have Travis Kelce in the fourth round, Trey McBride in the fourth, Dalton Kincaid in the fifth, Mark Andrews in the fifth, Kyle Pitts in the sixth or George Kittle in the sixth?
It just feels like the odds of one of those tight ends outscoring LaPorta are pretty likely. Like I said with Nacua, you still want to be exposed to LaPorta, but I will be A LOT more exposed to those other elite tight ends.
Ladd McConkey | Overall ADP 70.2, WR39
This is an ADP I just really don’t understand whatsoever.
I get that Ladd McConkey is in the Chargers offense and that he’s connected to Justin Herbert, but this is an offense that we project to be a lot more run heavy and be in a lot more 12-personnel than in previous years.
Also, what would be considered a good season for McConkey? Something similar to what we are projecting from guys like Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, and DeAndre Hopkins? Well I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but all of those guys I just listed currently go after Ladd McConkey on Underdog.
McConkey has never had a season with more than 800 yards or 60 receptions. Yet he’s being drafted like he’s the clear-cut WR1 on the Chargers. Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston are still going to be heavily involved. I also think D.J. Chark is a lot better than people give him credit for.
Romeo Doubs | Overall ADP 112.1, WR53
I really think this could be a year where Romeo Doubs sees a major reduction of his role in the Packers offense. When Christian Watson is healthy, he’s the Alpha in the offense. Jayden Reed is always going to command targets out of the slot. And everyone’s favorite sleeper in Dontayvion Wicks (who goes after Doubs) could just straight up steal Doubs’ spot.
Plus, with guys like Tyler Lockett, Brian Robinson, Rashid Shaheed and Devin Singletary all going around Doubs’ ADP, it makes clicking on Doubs just that much tougher. He feels like a perfect candidate for the “He had good numbers last year, but didn’t come anywhere near paying off that price this year” award.
Cade Otton | Overall ADP 170.5, TE20
A player who’s not priced as high as my other “fade” candidates, but I would rather click on Darnell Washington at his ADP than Cade Otton at his.
This brother didn’t even have 500 receiving yards in 2023 and only caught four TDs. Yes, he did catch 47 passes which I guess is *okay* for a tight end, but with the additions of Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irving in this offense, I think those numbers could sink even more.
When you can draft guys like Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant, Isaiah Likely and Tyler Conklin all after Otton’s ADP it makes clicking on Otton that much harder. He is a a player I am ABSOLUTELY fading this season.
If you want to experience my player takes in real time, I stream EVERYDAY on YouTube @PPRTyler.
Read Alex Regan’s RB sleepers article here: Fantasy Sleepers at RB – 5 Running Backs Due for a Breakout Season
