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In all fantasy formats – Underdog, FFPC and Redraft – we are looking to leverage ADP to our advantage. We win fantasy championships by drafting sure studs at the top of drafts and then filling out our rosters with late round ADP values. To manipulate ADP, drafters should understand the things that push ADPs down. ADP is built off perception. Uncertainty, ambiguity, unknowns and negative offseason narratives are all factors that act upon ADP and provide value deltas.
We should target players with suppressed ADPs, especially when there are other factors that will encourage production for them in the coming season. Below, we go through the big ADP wins from 2023 at wide receiver, identifying what suppressed ADPs and led to significant value gains. Then we identify some deeply discounted WRs in 2024 drafts.
2023 ADP Values at Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen | ADP: WR19, PPG Finish: WR3
Drafters perennially undervalue Keenan Allen and even more so now that he has changed teams and enters an ambiguous trio of wide receivers in Chicago. He is also 32 years old, causing drafters to pump the brakes even more. The veteran has not finished outside the top-13 PPG wide receivers since 2014 (not including 2016 where he was injured in Week 1).
Allen played 13 games last season, running 100-percent of the routes. He also earned a target on 29.9-percent (No. 3) of his routes and scored 21.5 fantasy PPG.
Puka Nacua | ADP: WR83, PPG Finish: WR6
Puka Nacua came out of nowhere in his first season in the NFL to post a WR6 finish in PPG. Counterpart Cooper Kupp was recovering from injury coming into the 2023 season, but drafters were still taking the veteran at WR12. The rest of the Rams roster was an afterthought, which ended up being a big mistake. Nacua recorded one of the best rookie receiving seasons ever. He was available on the waiver wire in many leagues, rewarding fantasy gamers who snatched him up after his 21.9-point (No. 10) finish in Week 1.
Nico Collins | ADP: WR54, PPG Finish: WR7 + Tank Dell | ADP: WR76, PPG Finish: WR18
Two seasons ago, Nico Collins recorded 1.77 (No. 44) YPRR while running routes across from Brandin Cooks and with Davis Mills under center.
Last season, C.J. Stroud elevated Collins and the whole Texans offense. The rookie QB powered a 3.24 YPRR season for Collins and a 2.36 YPRR season for Tank Dell. The two receivers finished in the top-20 at the position in PPG, proving a proficient quarterback distributor is worth his weight in gold for his pass-catchers.
Mike Evans | ADP: WR35, PPG Finish: WR10
Fantasy gamers are fatigued with Mike Evans. All he does is go out and put up 70-plus catches, 1,000-plus yards and 15-plus fantasy PPG seasons like it’s his job. It very much is his job, and he has done it with the best in the game under center (Tom Brady). However, he’s also performed well with Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield. Evans’ WR35 ADP last season was silly. He’s never finished lower than WR25 in PPG.
Michael Pittman | ADP: WR39, PPG Finish: WR14
The alleged curse of the running quarterback had Michael Pittman down at WR39 last season. But he was the top option in a Shane Steichen-designed offense. That is the same Steichen who was the OC for an Eagles offense that produced two top-24 wide receivers in AJ Brown and Devonta Smith in 2022. Pittman has now recorded three straight top-24 wide receiver seasons with Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, and Gardner Minshew last year.
2024 Deep ADP Discounts at Wide Receiver
Rashee Rice | Underdog ADP: WR41 (69 overall), FFPC ADP: WR40 (81 overall)
It happens every year: looming suspensions suppress ADPs. It is unknown thus far what Rice’s sanctions from the NFL will be, but Rice was among the elite wide receivers in all the numbers that matter in 2023. He was No. 12 in Targets Per Route Run, No. 10 in YPRR, No. 7 in Red Zone Targets and No. 9 in Route Win Rate (min. 20 routes per game). He is the obvious buy in the KC offense. Yet, he is the fourth Chiefs pass-catcher off the board in Underdog drafts (3rd at the FFPC). Take advantage of the uncertainty.
Keenan Allen | Underdog ADP: WR33 (53 overall), FFPC ADP: WR34 (69 overall)
Keenan Allen is very likely to see the most target volume from rookie QB Caleb Williams in 2024. Allen has earned 9.5 targets per game over his entire career. That’s 11 seasons. At some point it has to stop, but don’t fade his target-earning ability, even now. He was still cooking DBs with a 44.3-percent (No. 16) Route Win Rate (43.3-percent against man, No. 10) in 2023. Allen can easily return his seventh straight top-12 WR season and make this ADP look embarrassing.
Ladd McConkey | Underdog ADP: WR42 (121 overall), FFPC ADP: WR39 (80 overall)
The Chargers offloaded everyone who could catch a pass from their roster this offseason, including the top three targets from the last few seasons: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Gerald Everett. The new regime then drafted Ladd McConkey in the second round (2.02) of the NFL Draft. He is the most highly drafted of the Chargers pass catchers.
Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston, are both less athletic than the incoming rookie, who ran a 4.39 40 at the NFL Combine, Justin Herbert can make multiple pass catchers relevant in fantasy. Drafters are still worried Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman are going to run the ball at historic rates and not rely on Herbert.
Diontae Johnson | Underdog ADP: WR44 (73 overall), FFPC ADP: WR40 (75 overall)
Drafters have soured on Diontae Johnson after he recorded a No. 39 WR finish in both of the last two seasons. The year before that (2021), Johnson was WR8 with 17.2 PPG on 169 targets (10.6 per game). Drafters are also pushing Johnson’s ADP down based on concerns about Bryce Young and a Carolina offense which was No. 29 in Dropback EPA, per rbsdm.com. Johnson is going to be the target hog in the Panthers offense. He has never earned less than 24-percent of his team’s targets in his five years in the league.
Christian Watson | Underdog ADP: WR45 (73 overall), FFPC ADP: WR38 (79 overall)
Fantasy gamers are worried about Christian Watson even though the Green Bay offense is one of the most potent in the league. Watson could easily be the Pack’s most productive receiver.
Watson was the downfield threat last season, with a 14.8 Average Target Distance (No. 6). His Catchable Target Rate was 58.5-percent (No. 91), however. If the offense adjusts and gives Watson more shallow looks and/or his chemistry with Jordan Love improves, Watson could easily notch a top-12 WR season. He scored five touchdowns while only playing half the regular season games in 2023.
Xavier Legette | Underdog ADP: WR65 (138 overall), FFPC ADP: WR71 (183 overall)
Johnson is going to be the target hog in Carolina, but Xavier Legette is the next best option in the Panthers passing game. His value is being weighed down by his prospect profile. True, he only had one year of college production, but it was an electric one. Legette recorded 1,255 yards in his final year at South Carolina and looked every bit as athletic as his testing shows. His 40-yard Dash, Speed Score, and Burst Score are all 89th-percentile or better. If the Panthers offense takes a significant step forward, Legette will benefit.
Ja’Lynn Polk | Underdog ADP: WR66 (139 overall), FFPC ADP: WR73 (188 overall)
2024’s other best bet for a rookie breakout is Ja’Lynn Polk. We’re talking about a second round NFL Draft pick who could be the Alpha on a receiving corps with not much else going for it. If the Patriots’ new rookie quarterback and the third overall Draft pick, Drake Maye, is a good NFL quarterback, someone is going to score fantasy points. Polk is the best bet.
See Joel’s breakdown of the deeply discounted running backs of 2024 here: Deep Running Back ADP Values | Underdog, FFPC, Redraft Fantasy 2024
