Fantasy football season is upon us, and it’s never too early to talk 2024 fantasy football strategy. In this series, Theo Gremminger will break down the options at every draft position. In this article, he details the options at pick No. 3 in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
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Previous Entries
2024 Fantasy Football Strategy – What to Do with the No. 1 Pick? (playerprofiler.com)
Fantasy Football Strategy 2024 – Drafting from the 1.02 (playerprofiler.com)
The Chalk
Tyreek Hill‘s two-year run as a Miami Dolphin has been legendary. After never eclipsing 160 targets in any season as a Kansas City Chief, Hill has hit the 170 mark in back-to-back years. He has had consecutive 119 catches and 1,700-yard seasons. After CMC and CeeDee Lamb go off the board, Hill has rounded out the top 3. The argument is not “why take Hill at 3,” but rather the argument is “why is he not going No. 1 overall?” He averaged 23.5 PPG last season- one of only four players to eclipse the 20 PPG mark.
The Pivot
Hill’s only knock is his age. Despite showing no signs of slowing down and, there are always drafters who do not like seeing a three in front of a player’s age. Ageists are going to ageist. Like CMC, drafters are facing off against Father Time, and he is undefeated.
There are other options for drafters looking at younger options at the 1.03. Running backs like Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall have exceptional upside and hold more positional scarcity. There are quality WRs available at the 2.10 and 3.03, and a Robinson or Hall start provides a hammer for a Hero RB build.
Robinson would be my lean over Hall, but it is close. These two players could “break fantasy” in 2024 if it bounces their way. The RB1 overall has averaged over 80 catches per game over the last 11 seasons. Both of these young running backs finished in the top 5 among all RBs in targets, with Hall leading all RBs in catches with 76.
The Darkhorse Candidates
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase have WR1 overall seasons in their outcomes. They are high-upside picks and reasonable pivots for higher-volume drafters looking to mix it up and choose a different WR than Lamb and Hill in this range.
St. Brown was among only four skill position players to average 20 PPG or more in 2023. He is on one of the league’s best offenses in Detroit. There is little to dislike about the Sun God this season.
Chase has an opportunity to explode in production this year. Tyler Boyd is now a Tennessee Titan, and longtime RB Joe Mixon is a Houston Texan. This offense will revolve around Chase more than ever. Even more promising for his fantasy ceiling are the extended snaps in the slot. Two out of the last three WRs to finish as WR1 overall had a 50-percent plus slot share.
The Final Decision
Despite options like Robinson, Hill is the correct choice for the 1.03. He has one of the highest ceilings in all of football. Hill is a unique talent and one of the most exciting players we have ever seen in fantasy football. It just feels like we have not seen peak Miami Tyreek Hill. Despite his age, Hill is one of only a handful of players who could average 25 PPG and be the player you need to win leagues. Ageists should suck it up and click the draft button. Start watching some Cheetah highlights if you want to cheer yourself up about drafting an “older” player. You will get excited quickly.
