PlayerProfiler is home to the award winning redraft rankings and tools. Our Player Rankings are second to none, and the World Famous Draft Kit contains detailed player write ups and cheat sheets to help You dominate fantasy drafts! Check it out. Below, Seth Diewold breaks down the fantasy RBs on his Must Draft List in 2024 redraft and Underdog best ball.
Must Have Fantasy RBs for 2024 (Rounds 1-10)
In another year, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson could be candidates to be the 1.01 overall. In fact, some have made the argument for these running backs being selected higher than their current ADPs in Underdog drafts (Robinson’s ADP is 6.9 and Hall’s ADP is 8 overall). Both are set up in fantastic situations in 2024. My bold prediction is that one of these two running backs is going to be the consensus 1.01 this time next year. Let’s dive into the advanced numbers to determine which of these two running backs is going to be my selection here.
Bijan Robinson | Underdog ADP: RB3 (8 overall)
Last year, Robinson ranked No. 3 in targets amongst running backs and No. 19 in carries. We like this ratio from a fantasy football perspective. However, we can almost throw last year out the window because there is a new coaching staff and a new quarterback in town. Enter Kirk Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Robinson comes from the McVay coaching tree, and Cousins is coming from Minnesota and head coach Kevin O’Connell, who is also a protege of McVay’s. Both coach and quarterback should have a familiarity with the system, but what does that mean for the lead running back in fantasy?
If history serves us well, it bodes well for Robinson’s usage in the offense. Dating back to 2017, when McVay took over as the head coach of the Rams, he has tended to lean heavily on a bell cow back.. Todd Gurley ranked top-5 in Opportunity Share in 2017 and 2018 and ranked No. 9 in that category in 2019. Last year, Kyren Williams ranked No. 4 in Opportunity Share amongst running backs. To be fair, Zac Robinson was not the offensive coordinator for the Rams in 2023, but he has coached for the Rams in some capacity since 2019.
Last season, Bijan ranked No. 31 amongst running backs in Opportunity Share. Needless to say, that has a chance to be not just be top-5, but No. 1 in all of football. If this happens – and it has a good chance of happening barring an injury – Robinson is going to be a fantastic pick where he is currently going in fantasy drafts.
Breece Hall | Underdog ADP: RB2 (7 overall)
What about Breece Hall? Last season, with Aaron Rodgers being hurt for the entire season, Hall went on to finish as the RB2 overall in total fantasy points and the RB6 in fantasy points per game. Hall scored nine touchdowns despite ranking No. 33 amongst running backs in red zone touches (29, only one was a goal line touch). That speaks to just how bad the Jets offense was moving the football. In fact, the Jets ranked dead last in the NFL in red zone scoring, as they converted just 32.4-percent of their red zone attempts into touchdowns (Team Rankings).
Even if Rodgers is an average quarterback, it would do wonders for the Jets offense. Additionally, the Jets overhauled their lackluster offensive line in a major way this offseason. They signed OT Tyron Smith and OG John Simpson in free agency. They traded for OT Morgan Moses, and drafted Olu Fashanu in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. That is a vast improvement over last year’s group. The improvements give Hall a chance to finish as the RB1 overall.
Both Robinson and Hall are must haves, especially since they are both currently being drafted in the middle of Round 1. However, the edge goes to Breece Hall. Hall showed us what he could do on a bad offense with terrible quarterback play last season. To a certain extent, Robinson did too, but Hall was able to prove more than Bijan, and there isn’t a running back as prominent as Tyler Allgeier in the backfield. Hall only has Israel Abanikanda, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis behind him. Two are rookies in 2024.
Travis Etienne | Underdog ADP: RB11 (45 overall)
Etienne proved he could be a new age version of a bell cow running back in 2023. He ranked No. 6 in opportunity share, No. 4 in carries, and No. 7 in targets amongst running backs while ranking No. 6 amongst running backs in snap share. As a result, he finished as the RB 3 overall and the RB 7 in fantasy points per game. The Jaguars didn’t add a significant running back to take touches away from him, although there are rumors that they want to decrease Etienne’s volume.
Even if this is true, Etienne is still going to see significant volume in an offense that likes to push the pace. Jacksonville ranked No. 2 in pace of play last season and No. 6 in team pass plays per game. Last season, Etienne saw a 12.1-percent target share out of the backfield, which ranked No. 12 amongst qualified running backs. Make no mistake about it, Etienne is going to rank top 10 amongst running backs in targets and will likely get a 10-percent plus target share even if his volume goes down.
Rachaad White | Underdog ADP: RB15 (62 overall)
To be honest, I’m not sure what’s going on with Rachaad White’s ADP. Last season, White finished the season as the RB4 in fantasy points scored and the RB10 in fantasy points per game. The case for White is volume, which he should get plenty of once again in 2024. Dave Canales is gone, but new offensive coordinator Liam Coen has a history with the Rams, who have shown the propensity to feature one running back.
The Buccaneers will have Bucky Irving (drafted in Round 4 in the 2024 NFL Draft), Chase Edmonds, and Sean Tucker behind White on the depth chart. No running back on the Buccaneers roster significantly challenged White for playing time last season, and the Buccaneers haven’t done much to add to their running back room to challenge White in 2024.
James Cook | Underdog ADP: RB13 (58 overall)
I’m intrigued by James Cook this season. He is coming off a season where he finished as the RB12 overall and the RB19 in fantasy points per game. The problem is his upside is going to be limited as long as he is in a Josh Allen offense. However, that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be in line for a ton of volume in 2024.
The reason I believe the Bills are going to use Cook more is because they lost Gabriel Davis and Stefon Diggs. Those two wide receivers accounted for 241 targets in the offense. The Bills drafted Keon Coleman and signed Curtis Samuel in free agency, but I highly doubt those two receivers alone will account for all of the vacated targets in the Bills offense. Cook’s role could grow in 2024 as a weapon out of the backfield.
Last season, Cook ranked No. 23 in Snap Share, No. 18 in Opportunity Share, and No. 10 in Weighted Opportunities amongst running backs. Additionally, Cook ranked No. 19 in targets, No. 22 in Red Zone Touches, and No.24 in touchdowns amongst running backs. Also, the Bills lost Latavius Murray, who was their second leading rusher other than Josh Allen in 2023. The Bills did draft Ray Davis in Round 4 of the NFL Draft, but the Bills running back depth chart features Cook clearly at the top, with Ty Johnson, Ray Davis, Darrynton Evans, and Frank Gore Jr. behind him. It would not shock me to see Cook’s role increase as this offense evolves in the post-Stefon Diggs era.
D’Andre Swift | Underdog ADP: RB26 (93 overall)
Last season was the worst statistical season of D’Andre Swift’s career, at least from a fantasy perspective. Weirdly, it was the first season in which he played 16 games or more. Swift ranked as the RB20 overall and the RB24 in fantasy points per game. Additionally, he recorded career lows in receptions, receiving yards, and total touchdowns. In 2023, Swift was the poster boy for why we don’t care as much about carries as we do targets in fantasy football.
Now Swift moves to another good, albeit crowded, situation in Chicago. But how do we know that Swift’s 2024 season will be better than his 2023 season with the Bears? For starters, he is, by all accounts, the main guy in Chicago. Sure, Roschon Johnson is there and so is Khalil Herbert, but these are Day 3 running backs that don’t possess the upside that Swift brings as a playmaker and a pass catcher. However, the arguments against Swift are: a.) it’s a crowded offense, and b.) what if Caleb Williams is bad in Year 1?
I’ll admit, it’s hard to project a rookie quarterback going forward, but I’m not as worried about Williams. He is ultra-talented, and he is entering a situation with an unbelievable supporting cast. The Bears also have an under-the-radar offensive line that they have steadily added to in the years leading up to the Bears selecting Williams. This includes drafting Darnell Wright in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Wright is the starting right tackle.
Jaylen Warren | Underdog ADP: RB25 (89 overall)
I realize Jaylen Warren is in time split with Najee Harris, and it could be that the coaching staff in Pittsburgh wants Harris to succeed. The problem is Warren is the better running back. Warren ranked No. 6 in Target Share, No. 6 in True Yards Per Carry, No. 7 in Yards Per Touch, No. 1 in Juke Rate, and No. 3 in Breakaway Run Rate amongst running backs in 2023. Harris ranked No. 33 in Target Share, No. 36 in True Yards Per Carry, No. 39 in Yards Created Per Touch, No. 22 in Juke Rate, and No. 10 in Breakaway Run Rate. In every category that we care about for fantasy football, Warren is the better running back.
The only thing that can get in the way of Warren succeeding the way we want him to is the Pittsburgh coaching staff opting to use a less talented Harris, especially in red zone situations. Harris did rank No. 8 amongst running backs in Red Zone Touches last season. I would expect that trend to continue in 2024. However, that doesn’t take away the fact that Warren is the better pass catcher out of the backfield.
The good news is that the Broncos primary running backs (Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaje Perine) were targeted 150 total times out of the backfield last season. Granted, Russell Wilson, the new Steelers quarterback did miss two games at the end of the season, but it’s fair to say that the Steelers running backs should be getting a good number of targets. Warren is the most qualified running back to earn a good majority of them.
Zack Moss | Underdog ADP: RB27 (94 overall)
Zack Moss is an interesting case because the Bengals are now entering a world where they no longer have Joe Mixon. In his time with the Bengals, Mixon thrived on volume. Over the last three seasons, Mixon has averaged 253 carries, 62 targets, and 12 total touchdowns. That’s insane volume, and Mixon has been a steady top-12 running back as a result.
Enter Moss into the equation. Moss projects to be the primary running back in Cincinnati with Chase Brown serving as a pass-catching threat as well. This is likely going to be more of a committee, but honestly, Moss is the better running back with more experience in the NFL. He should be the back that earns the lion’s share of the opportunities. Even if gets 70- to 80-percent of the workload Mixon received during his time in Cincinnati, Moss would be well worth his ADP.
Read Seth’s article on how to build a dynasty super team here: How To Build A Dynasty Team the Right Way
