There are many questions facing fantasy gamers in 2024. Perhaps one of the more underrated questions is which wide receivers are worthy of being selected in the middle rounds. What is the Ladd McConkey fantasy outlook in his rookie season? What about Diontae Johnson? Which player should you draft in fantasy football for 2024?
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Diontae Johnson – Dan Williamson
Currently being drafted at nearly identical ADPs in Underdog best ball contests and just over a round apart in FFPC’s Best-Ball Tournament, you’d think that there would be some underlying evidence supporting the premise that these two players will be of nearly equal value to your fantasy teams. I can assure you. This is not at all the case. Ladd McConkey may be a second round NFL Draft pick who gets to play with a quality NFL QB. Diontae Johnson is joining a new team after a disappointing year catching passes from one of the worst QBs in the NFL. However, Johnson is the player you want to be drafting in 2024.
McConkey, who I’m sure the Chargers were delighted to select as the 2.02 in the 2024 NFL draft, is entering a passing offense that’s long on questions and appears to be short on answers. With Jim Harbaugh as head coach and Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator, we can presume this offense will tilt heavily towards the run. Roman has presided over an offense that ranked bottom five in pass attempts in nine of his 10 years as an OC. Roman also regularly ranked in the bottom five of NFL offenses in use of 11-personnel and rarely ever used 10-personnel, which are the two offensive packages that make use of a slot receiver.
Bad News
That’s bad news for McConkey, whose bread and butter comes in the slot. So, we have to wonder just how often he’ll even be on the field. The good news is he should be used to standing on the sideline as that’s where he spent most of his time at Georgia. While he was an efficiency monster in college, McConkey ranked near the bottom on nearly any volume or market-share stat you care to look at. Combine that with Roman’s history, and we have a situation that should be setting off alarm bells in our head. If you draft him, you can maybe console yourself with how well McConkey blocks.
Diontae Johnson, on the other hand, has been a target magnet in his career. If we throw out last year where he missed several games with a hamstring injury, Johnson earned 144, 169, and 147 targets in the previous three years. You won’t find many other players available this deep in a draft with a target-earning history that good who aren’t clearly in the decline phase of their careers. Johnson just turned 28 this summer. Therefore, he’s still in his prime. Furthermore, he’s joining the Dave Canales-led Panthers. Canales has presided over career years by both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Those two QBs were left for dead. Therefore, pause just a minute before you tell yourself that Bryce Young, the 2023 1.01, is already dead. Johnson is exactly the receiver Canales needed to resuscitate Young’s career.
Training Camp
Indeed, the reports out of training camp are that Johnson and Bryce Young have been showing great chemistry together. There aren’t really any other options to be the target hog in this offense either. Adam Thielen is more suited for a rocking chair than a major role as a WR. Legette is far too raw to take on that much responsibility. Mingo looked totally lost last year. Even if this offense leans heavily into the run game, as it likely will, Johnson should be good for 8+ targets a game. This would put him in the 140-target range for a fourth time in five years. If Adam Thielen can be the overall WR17 with a line of 103-1014-4 line as a 33-year old, Diontae Johnson can do at least as well. Drafting Johnson is pure profit. Drafting McConkey will lead to pure misery.
Ladd McConkey – Brendon Booth
Making the case for a rookie WR to perform in fantasy is a difficult endeavor. Historically, rookies tend to not acclimate to all of the aspects of the NFL receiving game in year 1. It takes time to learn the playbook, develop an advanced route tree, learn the speed of the game, and develop a rapport with the quarterback room. On top of all that, rookie wide receivers in their early 20’s are still developing physically and are competing against defensive backs who are, literally, grown men that know the game.
Over the last four seasons, only six rookie WRs have achieved a 1,000-yard season. Zero of those players have been second round picks. Only one of them, Puka Nacua, wasn’t drafted in the first round. Only three second rounders have even eclipsed 800 yards.
Breaking the Mold
However, if there is any rookie WR that is in the perfect position to break the mold, it’s Los Angeles Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey. McConkey may have history against him, but the second rounder makes up for that in talent and situation. One of the troubles in projecting rookie seasons is situation. Often, rookies have superior WRs ahead of them. Ladd finds himself in a Chargers WR room that is bereft of top-tier talent. McConkey’s target competition consists of 2021 third rounder Josh Palmer, 2023 first round disappointment Quentin Johnston, and DJ Chark. In comparing draft capital, which is a high corollary to performance, McConkey comes up short to Johnston by a negligible 13 picks, less than half of a draft round. That difference will be made up for in talent.
Rookie Comparisons and Analytics
Among the 2024 WR rookie class, Ladd McConkey finished third in first downs per reception, second in yards per route run vs. zone coverages, fourth in yards after catch per reception, and fourth in missed tackles forced per reception. To put that into perspective, McConkey is the type of receiver that becomes the quarterback’s best friend. He is a zone beater that always gets open.
His analytical model comps based on college production include Nico Collins, Diontae Johnson, and George Pickens. All of whom are currently their teams WR1. McConkey isn’t just a slot receiver, either. He lined up outside 70-percent of the time. Digging into his route tree, McConkey had success rates of 83-percent on out routes, 79-percent on post routes, and over 81-percent on slants and curls. He also has a QB that excels at an elite level in making the kinds of throws that McConkey excels at catching.
What About Greg Roman?
If there is any aspect of McConkey’s game that gives me pause, it’s Greg Roman, the Chargers’ offensive coordinator. The book on him is that he wants to run the ball a lot. Roman has never had a quarterback like Justin Herbert before, however. Additionally, in Roman’s last two seasons in Baltimore, they passed the ball at a rate of over 53-percent. He also doesn’t have the receiving talent at TE that he had in Baltimore, and he has supported WRs in the 140+ target range before.
It is not out of the question that it happens in 2024. Bottom line, McConkey is a great route runner that separates and has excellent hands. His efficiency and a path to WR1 on the Chargers will equate to elite fantasy performance. McConkey’s Underdog ADP is three picks below Diontae Johnson. While I fully expect both to far outplay their draft position, I prefer the upside of McConkey in all formats.
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