Welcome to the first edition of Lucid Streams. Our goal here is to help you find emergency help that’s potentially available on the waiver wire or on the back of your bench when you’re scrambling for options due to injuries or plain old poor drafting at wide receiver and tight end. We also want to equip you with the tools to go out on your own and find the best options in case the options listed here each week aren’t available to you. Our goal is to find players (fantasy sleepers) who can contribute 10+ PPR points to your lineup this week.
The Process
What we are looking for each week is to find the players most likely to pop for one of several reasons. They may have an increased role in the offense due to the misfortune of a player ahead of them on the depth chart. Or they may be facing a defense which will have trouble defending them due to a positional mismatch. Maybe that’s a chronic problem of the defense, or maybe it’s due to injuries in the coverage units which will allow a unique opportunity for success by our streamer. At the intersection of high opportunity and low ownership is where we want to pan for gold in the stream.
We’ll use a variety of tools to help us, including schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the WR or TE positions. If you’re not familiar with this metric, it removes the variance that can skew fantasy-points-allowed by a defense due to the quality of the passing attacks they’ve faced. For example, if Defense A has faced four top-tier passing offenses in the first four weeks while Defense B has faced only weak passing offenses over that same period, it could appear that Defense B is better at defending WRs than Defense A, when in reality, Defense A might be the tougher matchup.
The further we get into the season, the more relevance this analysis will have. To start the season, we’ll be using data from 2023 which may or may not continue to be accurate for 2024. However, it’s better to at least know where a defense left off at the end of last season than to know nothing at all.
Let’s get to it!
Wide Receivers
Andrei Iosivas
The second year WR for the Bengals may have a prime opportunity to take advantage of his ascension up the depth chart with Ja’Marr Chase continuing to hold-in by attending practice, but not actually practicing. We’re at a point now where even if Chase does start practicing today, he may not play a full complement of snaps. Additionally, if the hold-in continues, he may not play at all. Iosivas should see a healthy dose of targets this week against a Patriots defense that ranked No. 24 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the WR position.
Greg Dortch
The Cardinals coaching staff has been praising Dortch since training camp began, and he’s locked down a starting job. Defenses are likely to prioritize guarding Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, leaving Dortch to roam free in the slot. Buffalo had a pretty decent pass defense in 2023. However, 44-percent of the WR production they gave up came from the slot. That’s the third highest percentage in the league. If the underdog Cardinals are trailing in the second half, they should be passing often against a defense looking to shut down big plays and willing to allow plenty of short clock-draining completions in the middle of the field. As a result, Dortch is one of the better fantasy sleepers this season.
Tyler Boyd
Fantasy gamers have been sleeping on the new slot maven for the Titans. Brought over from the Bengals by new head coach Brian Callahan, Boyd is already a master of this offense. Additionally, DeAndre Hopkins is no lock to play Week 1 due to his knee injury, opening up additional targets for Boyd. The Bears are favored in this game. So, if the script plays out that way, there should be plenty of targets to go around, and Boyd has a good shot to be one of the top two target earners this week.
DeMarcus Robinson
Starting in Week 13 last year, the Rams offense was hitting on all cylinders. Demarcus Robinson was an important but underrated cog in the machine. He closed the season with five straight games of 13+ PPR points despite the fact that Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were both taking full complements of snaps.
The game with the Lions is likely to be a shootout with footballs filling the air all game long against a defense that ranked No. 30 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Robinson is one of those fantasy sleepers that is playable in a pinch this week.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz
Guess what percentage of his last 27 games-played that Ertz ended up being a TE1 on the week. Did you guess 25-percent? 50-percent? You’re still too low. Since joining forces with Kliff Kingsbury, Ertz has been a TE1 for an astounding 63-percent of his games. This is despite playing alongside the sensational Trey McBride for much of that time. Ertz is facing a Tampa Bay defense that was the No. 31 worst at defending the TE in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. As a result, we are looking at an opportunity ripe to be exploited by managers who got shut out of the elite options at TE.
Noah Fant
Forget all about last year’s nightmare season for Fant. Shane Waldron and his infuriating 3-TE rotation have departed for Chicago. Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly, Fant’s former co-hostages in the Waldron system, have also left for greener pastures. This left Fant to be the primary TE in what promises to be an exciting and pretty wide-open offense. Add in the fact that the Broncos were terrible at defending the TE position last year (No. 28 worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed), and we have a recipe for a surprisingly tasty start from Fant. Fant could be one of those fantasy sleepers that is useful all season long.
Mike Gesicki
If Ja’Marr Chase is absent or limited in Week 1 due to his hold-in, Mike Gesicki has a good chance to get off to a hot start with his new team. Gesicki could end up with the No. 2 or No. 3 most targets in this game, and that’s a level of opportunity that could yield a needful of catches and hopefully an opportunity or two in the end zone.
Hunter Henry
The Patriots offense promises to be a mess in 2024, but it may be worth holding our nose and starting Henry. The Patriots WRs have plenty to prove before they enter the fantasy circle of trust, but Hunter Henry has been a trusty option from the TE position no matter how bad the offense has been in New England since he arrived.
I’m concerned he may have to block a little more often than we’d like to see from our fantasy starter at TE, but he’s a reliable target when he does run his routes. The Bengals were the stone-worst last year at defending TEs, ranking 32nd by our metric. Henry is one of those fantasy sleepers to consider starting if you’re desperate at tight end this week.
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