In evaluating pass-catching performance, target-earning metrics can be key factors to see how much of an offensive role a player is earning. Target Share shows how many passes of a team’s total a player is earning. Targets per route run, or Target Rate, breaks that down further and measures a player’s target-earning efficiency. These stats together help identify trends in player usage and potential fantasy breakouts or regressions. Week 1 brought a few interesting numbers that aren’t trends yet, but bring fantasy-useful takeaways to get ahead of the curve. This is the Target Share Report from Week 1!
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Running Backs
Justice Hill
The Ravens used quick, short throws to get Lamar Jackson going behind a weaker offensive line in Week 1 against the Chiefs. Justice Hill was a beneficiary of this and the pass-favorable Game Script. Finishing with eight targets, Hill had a 20-percent Target Share. His 57-percent Target Rate was tops among backs running more than six routes. However, there will be Game Scripts that give Lamar more time to throw downfield or to rely on Derrick Henry.
Hill will be heavily involved when the Game Script calls to pass. This makes him a top waiver target and a good back to have on the bench. Hill is trending up, buy now and use him for prospective competitive games for the Ravens (against the Cowboys, Bills, Bengals, Steelers, etc.).
Chase Brown
In an underwhelming Bengals loss, Chase Brown finished with six touches for 23 yards. He ceded the bulk of the workload to Zack Moss, who saw nine carries and four targets to Brown’s three and three. As a receiver, Brown had a 10.3-percent Target Share and 33-percent Target Rate. Moss was involved as well, with a 13.8-percent Target Share and 28.6-percent Target Rate. Brown did not have a favorable share of pass-catching opportunities, running nine routes to Moss’s 15. This happened in a close loss to the Patriots as well, indicating this is the Bengals’ preferred allocation for high leverage situations. With Moss’s workload capping his pass-catching chances, Brown is trending down. You are best off holding him as you won’t get much for him in a deal and is at the least too valuable a handcuff to be let go to waivers.
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp
Once again seeing bonkers usage, Cooper Kupp is already a value from draft position. Puka Nacua‘s knee injury resulted in Kupp being the primary target once again, and he will continue to be for at least the next four games. Week 1 saw a 43.8-percent Target Share and 41-percent Target Rate (No. 3 among qualifying WRs) for Kupp. Redraft managers should either hold him or float some trade offers while you still can.
Cooper Kupp’s 21 Targets in Week 1 tied Davante Adams (2023) for the highest target total in a single game since 2016.
Last season only three players (Adams x2, ARSB & Keenan Allen) had games with 20 or more targets.
It is officially Cooper Kupp SZN
pic.twitter.com/mvk4sSUdJA— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) September 12, 2024
The upward trend will continue for a good chunk of the season with Nacua out. While we’re on Rams receivers, I’ll note Tyler Johnson saw the same number of targets with less routes run than Demarcus Robinson. Johnson is the cheaper fantasy value and will be utilized heavier if given more opportunity.
Christian Kirk
In a low pass-volume day for the Jaguars, Christian Kirk caught just one of four targets in Week 1. His Target Rate and receiving yards were both No. 3 among the Jags’ pass-catchers. Though the low volume indicates Kirk has low opportunity, there is context that makes him a good buy. Trevor Lawrence threw just 21 passes, a number that would have been by far his lowest in 2023.
Kirk tied for first in Target Share on the team and operated as the primary slot receiver. Though his value has fallen after Week 1, Kirk earned targets similar to his 2023 levels, when he finished as a WR3. His value was high-end WR4 entering the season, and this low-volume Jaguars game is a chance to buy low on a guy who has higher finishes ahead.
Tight Ends
Isaiah Likely
The first game of the NFL regular season saw Isaiah Likely make his mark on the fantasy world. He had a 30-percent Target Share, totaling 11 Targets with a 46.2-percent Target Rate (highest among tight ends running at least 10 routes.). His usage dominated Pro Bowl teammate Mark Andrews‘ 6.5-percent Target Rate, though context is needed. The Chiefs defense bracketed Andrews, taking him out of more plays.
He is also a month removed from a car accident. The Ravens offense saw Lamar Jackson under heavy pressure behind a shaky offensive line. Andrews will be integrated more as the season goes on against worse defenses and Likely is un-likely to peak at this performance often. Likely is a redraft waiver add for half your FAAB, but also a good sell high candidate in deeper leagues where opposing managers will be looking for tight end support.
Cole Kmet
Shane Waldron showed how he would use the tight ends throughout preseason and proved it again in Week 1. Cole Kmet had just one target, good for a 12.5-percent Target Rate. Gerald Everett also received one target but ran 15 routes to Kmet’s eight. The offense had a bad day overall, but Kmet saw much lower usage compared to the past couple seasons. It’s not trending to be a high-volume season for him with the offense still settling and Everett a factor. Kmet can be cut in shallower leagues, though deeper, tight end premium leagues see some value from him.
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