Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 3: Malik Nabers is Awesome

by Ted Chmyz · Fantasy Football

Pending two Monday Night Football games, we are now through three weeks of the NFL season. So far, it’s been a pretty rough fantasy season. Offensive production is down across the league and injuries are piling up. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t positives to take away from Fantasy Football Week 3! Let’s jump in with 10 top takeaways from Sunday’s games. 

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Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 3

1. It’s Time to Panic About Formerly Elite Tight Ends

My very first segment in this weekly article was a panic meter for elite tight ends following a disappointing Week 1 across the board. At the time, I said I wasn’t panicked at all about Travis Kelce and pointed out that Mark Andrews still saw decent usage in terms of snaps and routes. Two weeks later, I wish I had panicked harder. 

Kelce, at least, is still seeing good usage: He tied for the team lead in routes on Sunday night and was even No. 2 on the team in targets. However, he’s not producing. With three weeks in the books, he has just eight catches for 69 yards and zero touchdowns. A couple of years ago, that would be a disappointing single-game output for Kelce, let alone three weeks. You just have to keep starting him, but it’s clear that the emergence of Rashee Rice (and likely his own age) has drastically reduced Kelce’s role in KC’s offense. 

Still, Kelce’s situation is golden compared to Mark Andrews‘ problems. The former All-Pro ran a grand total of six routes on Sunday. Sure, the Ravens only had 17 dropbacks, but that’s still terrible. Andrews also saw his time on the field decrease, as he lost snaps in both 11 and 21 personnel on Sunday. Combine the game script with the fact that he already wasn’t playing in 22 personnel, and Andrews played just 33-percent of the Ravens’ total snaps. He’s not quite droppable (yet), but you should be looking to other options for your lineup in Week 4.

2. Maybe Tua Deserves Some More Credit

It was just one week, but things look grim for the Miami Dolphins’ fantasy future without Tua Tagovailoa. With a combination of Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle under center, the Dolphins managed just 205 total yards and three points. 

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for just 66 yards and 10.1 Half-PPR points on 10 targets. De’Von Achane still saw good usage, playing a career-high 74-percent of snaps and recording 11 carries and five targets … and even he managed just 7.3 points. Achane, the most efficient back in the history of the league in his rookie year, is now averaging just 3.5 yards per rush. NextGenStats has him as one of the league’s absolute worst rushers, with -1.46 yards vs. expected per carry, while SumerSports has him slightly below average at -0.68. However, efficiency in the receiving game means he still ranks No. 6 among RBs in Production Premium.

There’s a legitimate argument to be made that Hill and Waddle are both bench candidates until Tagovailoa returns. Achane’s usage and explosiveness mean he is still a must-start, but the top five ceiling he flashed in the first two weeks is off the table until Tua returns. However, if you can stomach a few bad weeks, all three may be buy-low candidates. We know that Hill and Waddle are both elite receivers, while Achane ranks No. 1 amongst RBs in Weighted Opportunities.

3. Jake Ferguson is the Only Good Tight End?   

Among tight ends with at least a 50-percent route participation rate (cutting out Isaiah Likely, Mike Gesicki, Will Dissly, and Jeremy Ruckert), Jake Ferguson leads the way with a 28-percent target per route rate. In his return from injury, he led the Cowboys in targets (11), receptions (six), and yards (95). 

We can put this another way: three weeks into the season, Ferguson has exited one game early with an injury, missed another entirely, and returned to limited snaps in a third … he’s No. 6 among TEs in targets and No. 8 in yards. Especially given that the Cowboys’ defense seems to have regressed massively, the opportunities should keep coming Ferguson’s way. In a year where every other tight end seems to be struggling to even get on the field, let alone see targets, that makes him invaluable. 

The injury and a lack of touchdowns may keep Ferguson’s price relatively low for now, but that won’t last if he keeps producing. Trade for him now, especially if you can take advantage of name value to offload an Andrews/Kelce/Kincaid/Pitts/LaPorta type in the process. There are absolutely leagues where those swaps would still come with a plus on the Ferguson side, which is an opportunity worth taking. 

4. The Andy Dalton Effect

Through three weeks of the 2024 NFL season, Andy Dalton is the only quarterback to have thrown for 300 yards and three touchdowns in the same game. With Dalton under center, the Panthers put up 36 points. Over the last four games started by Bryce Young, they had scored 13 points combined. 

Dalton’s stellar start brings hope back to the fantasy prospects of all of Carolina’s players. Diontae Johnson was the WR5 on the week, catching eight of 14 targets for 122 yards and a TD (he could have had another, too). Chuba Hubbard finished with 169 total yards and a receiving TD of his own. Adam Thielen scored a touchdown, too, although he injured his hamstring in the process.

All of this should be taken with a grain of salt, as it was against the Raiders. But it’s still a massive upgrade. Diontae is back to being a weekly starter and so is Hubbard (although watch out for the return of rookie Jonathon Brooks). With Thielen sidelined, first-round rookie Xavier Legette took over as the Panthers’ WR2 and finished with 42 yards. He is an intriguing deep-league stash. 

5. J.K. Dobbins Trends Up & Down at the Same Time

On the surface, Week 3 was bad for Dobbins. After back-to-back huge weeks, he finished with just 6.9 Half-PPR points, carrying the ball 15 times for 44 yards and catching all three of his targets for just 10 yards. His efficiency fell off, too, as the league’s most efficient back through two weeks posted 2.17 yards below expected per carry in Week 3. 

However, Dobbins’ usage was actually far better this week than it had been previously. His snap share hit a new high of 65-percent (up from 58-percent), and he saw 15 carries to Gus Edwards‘ three. That’s a massive change given that Edwards was actually slightly leading Dobbins in carries coming into this game. 

Looking forward, Dobbins’s efficiency may not rebound immediately. Justin Herbert will likely miss at least one week with an ankle issue, and the Chargers’ next matchup is with the Chiefs. But, either this week or after another potentially slow outing next week, Dobbins is a great buy-low candidate. He is now the clear lead back on a run-heavy offense and should be able to provide RB2 numbers once Herbert is back healthy. 

6. It’s (Almost) Bucky Irving Time in Tampa

Over the last three years, Rachaad White has been arguably the least efficient high-volume rusher in the league. However, he has maintained that high volume, thanks mostly to a lack of other options in Tampa Bay. As a rookie, he split time with 27-year-old Leonard Fournette, perhaps the only back less efficient than he was. Sean Tucker was unfortunately more of the same in 2023. 

But fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving has changed that. Through three weeks, he is averaging nearly three times as many yards per carry as his veteran teammate. He also saw more carries than White for the first time this week, finishing with 70 yards on his nine carries, while Rachaad went seven for 17. On Monday, Buccaneers Head Coach Todd Bowles said that Irving has earned more snaps going forward. 

However, don’t overreact too much to this change. There’s a reason Bowles is talking about Irving earning snaps: the rookie has played just 32.9-percent of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps so far this season. That number is even lower in high-value situations: Irving has a 25.7-percent snap share for passing plays and has played zero of the Buccaneers’ 12 snaps inside the 10-yard line. White is not startable with his volume down and his still-terrible efficiency, but Irving is also not a weekly play until his usage increases. 

7. D’Andre’s Time is Swiftly Running Out

Speaking of inefficient backs in the midst of losing their jobs, D’Andre Swift. Swift ranks dead last among qualified backs in traditional yards per carry and NextGenStats’ yards vs. expected. Unsurprisingly, his workload is being cut down as a result. 

Over the first two weeks, Swift was already losing out to Khalil Herbert in key short-yardage and goal-line situations, which continued in this game. However, this week, Swift also lost snaps in both passing situations and the two-minute drill to Roschon Johnson. This is an especially bad sign given that Johnson was a healthy scratch in each of the last two weeks, only active this week because Travis Homer is on injured reserve with a finger injury. The Bears are literally activating guys and immediately giving them valuable touches over Swift.

Moving forward, I wouldn’t be surprised if Swift’s workload continues to shrink. Especially once we factor in the Bears’ offensive ineptitude (they’re third worst in the league in EPA per play), he’s not a viable starting option. 

8. Josh Downs is Back, Adonai Mitchell is the Odd Man Out

Josh Downs took the field for the first time in 2024 on Sunday, returning to his role as the Colts’ primary slot receiver. As a result, rookie Adonai Mitchell found himself essentially a non-factor in Indianapolis’ game plan. Mitchell ran just two routes, fewer even than Ashton Dulin, and failed to catch his only target. He could still come on later in the season, but he’s not worth holding outside of deep leagues. 

Downs, meanwhile, played in just three-receiver sets, with Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce serving as the Colts’ primary receivers. All 16 of his routes came from the slot, and he continued where he left off as a rookie by earning five targets for an over 30-percent target per route run rate. However, Downs’ fantasy value will likely suffer from the same issue as Pittman’s: Anthony Richardson simply isn’t a consistent NFL passer. At this point, it’s hard to trust anyone on this Indianapolis offense outside of Jonathan Taylor. 

9. Malik Nabers is Awesome

I wasn’t sure whether to bother including this, but this article is “Top 10 Takeaways,” not “Top 10 Sneaky Takeaways,” so here we are. In case you somehow missed it, the No. 6 overall pick in this year’s draft has absolutely exploded over the last two weeks. He is essentially the Giants’ entire passing offense, with an absurd 58.3-percent share of the team’s air yards (no other player is at even 50-percent). 

Nabers also ranks No. 1 in total air yards, No. 1 in targets, No. 1 in route participation rate, No. 2 in target share, No. 5 in yards, and tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns … to name a few. He’s a legit top five receiver for the rest of the season, at least. 

10. Pat Freiermuth Might Survive Arthur Smith

After Week 1, things looked grim for Pat Freiermuth. He posted just a 63.3-percent route participation rate, coming off the field often for Darnell Washington and/or MyCole Pruitt. Arthur Smith, already hated by the fantasy community for constantly pulling Kyle Pitts off the field in Atlanta, seemed to be doing it again. However, that number has trended positively each week. In Week 2, he posted a 73.1-percent participation rate, and he was just one route off the team lead with 82.9-percent on Sunday.  

It is worth noting that Pruitt — who played with Smith in both Tennessee and Atlanta — missed Week 3’s game with a knee injury. There’s a chance Freiermuth’s usage will regress once the 32-year-old gets healthy. This is especially true given Pruitt’s abysmal blocking, as he is last on the team in both Run Block Grade and Pass Block Grade per PFF. 

But Freiermuth has also been solidly productive in the receiving game, ranking No. 3 on the Steelers with 1.48 yards per route run. The Steelers are also clearly lacking for receiving options behind George Pickens. Given the state of the tight end position, Freiermuth’s four receptions per game don’t seem too bad … just be ready to move on quickly if Pruitt returns and his route participation craters. 

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