PlayerProfiler is home to the award winning redraft rankings and tools. Our Player Rankings are second to none, and the World Famous Draft Kit contains detailed player write ups and cheat sheets to help You dominate fantasy drafts! Check it out. Below, Bradley Stalder breaks down premium fantasy football flex plays for fantasy Week 5.
In this weekly flex plays article, we identify three players outside the top 50 projected FLEX starters who will “win” the FLEX. How do we define “winning” the FLEX position? If a player earns at least 12.5 points in half-point PPR scoring, that’s a “win.” Anything less than that will be a loss. One player outside the top 100 in projected points for the week is my long-shot, double-or-nothing score. Throughout the season, I’ll offer both players I think will “win” the FLEX each week and update how I did last week as accountability.
Week 4 Record: 1-2
Running Records 5-7 , 42-percent
Dontayvion Wicks | WR, Green Bay Packers
Dontayvion Wicks is rostered on 35-percent of teams and projected to start on 2-percent of them. Wicks projects as the 55th-highest FLEX player for Week 5. If there was ever a “handcuff” upside wide receiver, Wicks is that player. In three career games exceeding 70-percent snaps, Wicks averages 18.7 fantasy points per game in half PPR. Christian Watson is expected to miss some time with an ankle sprain. That should clear a pathway for Wicks to earn significant snaps, just like he did in Week 4.
The Packers travel to take on the LA Rams, and are three-point favorites. The Rams secondary allowed Jauan Jennings to catch 11 passes for 175 yards and three TDs in Week 3. With a 48 point game total, there should be fantasy points aplenty. Wicks ranks No. 3 among WRs in total TDs, No. 11 in target rate, and No. 19 in Average Target Distance. Wicks is clearly a player who will step up when called upon, and against a Rams secondary that is ranked in the bottom four in PFF coverage grade, this sets up nicely for another Wicks spark-boom game.
Chase Brown | RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown is rostered on 75-percent of teams, but only projected to start on 9-percent. He projects as the 71st-highest FLEX player for Week 5. Brown earned 17 touches in Week 4’s victory over the Carolina Panthers. He ranks as the 4th-highest PFF graded rusher so far this season, and No.2 behind Tank Bigsby in rush yards per attempt and also No. 2 in yards after contact per attempt. Brown’s 47.4-percent Juke Rate ranks No. 1 among running backs, indicating his shiftiness and inclination to avoid being tackled.
The Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens with the highest game total of 50.5 on the slate for Week 5. Both the Bengals and Ravens are coming off games having scored 30-plus points each as a team. With the Bengals not favored in this matchup, look for Joe Burrow to dump off routinely to both Zack Moss and Chase Brown. Burrow is on pace to have the lowest ADOT of his career, having targeted one of Moss or Brown at a 20-percent clip on the season. Fire up Brown as the Bengals ride the hot-hand and their most efficient running back.
Josh Downs | WR, Indianapolis Colts
Josh Downs is rostered on 30-percent of teams, and projected to start on 1-percent of them. Downs projects as the 74th-highest FLEX player for Week 5. Target Share, Target Share, Target Share. That’s the name of the game for Josh Downs, as he’s earned 32-percent of targets since returning from injury in Week 3. The encouraging part for Downs is that regardless of who starts in Week 5 – Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco – he will command a heavy dosage of targets. It’s clear that Downs is the 1B for the Colts in the passing game. But, if Flacco starts for the Colts, Downs becomes a must-start given the veteran QB’s tendency to push the ball downfield.
The Colts travel to Jacksonville where they face a reeling Jaguars team, who are staring down four losses to start the season. The Jaguars may be favored at home by 2.5, but with a respectable 46.5 game total, there is a pathway for shootout potential. The Jaguars rank as the 6th-worst PFF graded coverage team to start the season, and have allowed 24-315-1 to the leading slot receiver of teams through the first four weeks (12.4 ppg).
Deep Cut: Tyler Allgeier | RB, Atlanta Falcons
Tyler Allgeier is rostered on 48-percent of teams and projected to start on 2-percent. Patterson projects as the 114th-highest FLEX player for Week 5. Allgeier actually out-rushed Bijan Robinson in Week 4. No, that is not a misprint. And no, Arthur Smith is not the head coach of the Falcons anymore. Raheem Morris came out and said that he “doesn’t care about stats.” Yikes. Allgeier set a season-high with 41-percent of snaps and 53-percent of rush share in Week 4. Expect the Falcons continue to ride the hot-hand of Allgeier on a short Week against Tampa Bay on Thursday Night.
Allgeier, by most efficiency metrics, has outplayed Robinson thus far. Allgeier has better yards per attempt, PFF rush grade, yards after contact per attempt, and elusiveness rating. Let’s not forget that Allgeier rushed for over 1,000 yards in his rookie year after starting the season slowly for the Falcons. Robinson is also nursing a hamstring (and/or an ankle) injury which limited his practice on Tuesday. He is also nursing a shoulder injury entering Week 4’s contest. Whatever may be ailing Robinson may pave the way for a useful fantasy day for Allgeier.
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