PlayerProfiler is home to the award winning redraft rankings and tools. Our Player Rankings are second to none, and the World Famous Draft Kit contains detailed player write ups and cheat sheets to help You dominate fantasy drafts! Check it out. Below, Ted Chmyz highlights his top-10 takeaways from Week 7 fantasy football.
Heading into Monday Night Football, Week 7 was one of the worst fantasy football weeks we’ve seen in a long time…for receivers, anyway. Amon-Ra St. Brown is currently the only receiver to have surpassed 20 half-PPR points, while not a single receiver scored multiple touchdowns. Running backs didn’t have that issue, as seven RBs hit paydirt at least twice. This isn’t a particularly actionable piece of data, but it is interesting. Without further ado, let’s get into some useful stats from this week’s action.
Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 7
1. At Least Firing Robert Saleh Helped Breece Hall
Over the first five weeks of the season, things weren’t great for Breece Hall. Expected to see truly elite usage, Hall was seeing “just” at 74.1-percent snap share, 57.5-percent rush attempt share, and 14.2-percent target share, as Braelon Allen consistently cut into his workload. Especially with the rookie looking legitimately great in his opportunities, it seemed unlikely Hall would be able to deliver on his first round draft price.
However, things have changed in New York. The Jets fired Robert Saleh (replaced with Jeff Ulbrich) and removed Nathaniel Hackett as their play-caller (replaced with Todd Downing). Under the new regime, Hall has gone back to a true bell cow, playing 84.2-percent of the Jets’ offensive snaps, with an 83.3-percent rush share and a 20.3-percent target share. In simpler terms, Hall has 41 touches over the last two weeks. Allen has six. As long as this continues, Hall is arguably the RB1, while Allen is purely a handcuff.
2. Injured Backs Returned To Reduced Roles
If I had a nickel for every running back that returned to the field this week after missing Week 5 and Week 6 with a groin injury only to see a reduced workload, I’d have two nickels. Which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it happened twice.
One of these incidents wasn’t too surprising, as Zamir White was already losing his job to Alexander Mattison before he missed two weeks with a groin injury. That became official in his return this week, as he carried the ball just three times to Mattison’s 23. White also played just 13.3-percent of the Raiders’ offensive snaps. He’s droppable in all formats, while the elite usage may be enough for Mattison to maintain flex value even on a terrible Vegas offense.
A similar backfield coup occurred in New York this week, as rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. out-snapped the returning Devin Singletary 37 to 12. Tracy had just one more carry than Singletary, six to five, but ran 25 routes to the veteran’s six and saw three targets to his one. This situation isn’t as clear-cut as the one in Vegas. This was a bad game script for the Giants, and Singletary hasn’t been anywhere near as inefficient as White — he’s likely not going to fade away completely. For now, however, Tracy is clearly the more valuable back for fantasy purposes.
3. Sam LaPorta is Droppable
I came into the season down on Sam LaPorta, but even I didn’t expect things to go this badly for the reigning TE1. Seven weeks into the season, LaPorta ranks No. 32 among tight ends in target share. That’s behind Johnny Mundt, Austin Hooper, and Will Dissly, to name just three of the 31 tight ends more involved in their team’s offenses than LaPorta.
If we look just at total targets, LaPorta is actually even worse off, falling to No. 33. His Route Participation rate is down from last season, at 66.2-percent, but the real problem is that he simply isn’t being targeted when he does run routes. He has a putrid 11-percent target per route run rate. Even Cardio Cade Otton was at a 13-percent target-per-route rate in 2023.
LaPorta isn’t necessarily a must-drop, as being on the Lions’ dominant offense does mean he has more theoretical upside than most wasteland TEs. But he certainly doesn’t deserve to be ranked as a top-12 TE heading into Week 8, and holding a bench tight end is a bad call in most formats. Don’t be afraid to drop him…it might actually benefit you if one of your leaguemates picks him up and starts him.
4. The Russell Wilson Effect
Maybe, just maybe, Mike Tomlin knows more about the two quarterbacks he’s spent months working with than Twitter analysts do. Despite Justin Fields having led the Steelers to a 4-2 record (and playing better than he has in the past, for what it’s worth), Tomlin started Russell Wilson Sunday Night. Despite facing the Jets’ defense, Wilson immediately posted 10.0 adjusted net yards per attempt — Fields had failed to reach even 8.0 across his six starts.
Most importantly, Wilson avoided negative plays, with a 12.5-percent pressure-to-sack rate (Fields was at 20.5-percent) and zero turnover-worthy plays (Fields had one interception and six fumbles, three of which were lost). Pittsburgh’s offense also set new highs in yards (409) and points (37).
Wilson likely won’t play quite this well going forward, and we may see Fields again at some point. But the most important fantasy takeaway for now is that Wilson greatly improves the outlook for the rest of the Steelers’ players. George Pickens, especially, ranks No. 3 in the league with a 50.6-percent Air Yards Share for the season. With a more efficient passer (who happens to be a great fit for his skill set) under center, he could push for legit WR1 numbers. Najee Harris also found new life over the last weeks, and he gets an extra boost because Wilson will not vulture red zone rush attempts as Fields did.
5. The Drake Maye Effect
Drake Maye has played just two full games, but he is already only 155 passing yards behind Jacoby Brissett (who started five games) for the season. The third overall pick also has more than twice as many passing touchdowns as the veteran (five to two). Numbers against the Jaguars’ defense probably should only count for half, but it’s still undeniable that the third overall pick is a huge improvement for New England’s offensive production.
So far, Hunter Henry has been the biggest beneficiary, with back-to-back weeks over 11 half-PPR points — not many tight ends have done that this season. Henry also posted an 81-percent route participation rate in Week 7, the highest number on the team and easily his highest number since Week 2. He’s worth adding if you need TE help.
Meanwhile, Maye should be able to support a fantasy relevant wide receiver, but it’s hard to tell who that will be. Second-round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk is struggling with drops and trending in the wrong direction in terms of route participation. Kayshon Boutte has led the team’s WRs in routes each of the last two weeks, but he’s yet to see more than three targets in a game. DeMario Douglas is the best target-earner of the group, but only plays in three-WR sets (he also saw limited snaps this week due to an illness). Douglas is probably the best bet to provide flex value (especially in PPR leagues), but I’m still holding out hope for Maye elevating Boutte, Polk, or even veteran Kendrick Bourne to real weekly contributor status.
6. The Anthony Richardson Effect
Unfortunately, this blurb is not going to be as positive as the previous two. Anthony Richardson has elite physical tools and may yet grow into a great NFL quarterback, but he is currently a huge anchor weighing down the fantasy value of the Colts’ offense.
In his four full games, Richardson has attempted 97 passes with a 61.9-percent catchable pass rate. That computes to 15.0 catchable targets per game. 39-year-old Joe Flacco, in his two starts in the same offense, averaged almost exactly twice as many catchable targets, 30.4 (41 attempts per game on a 74.4-percent catchable pass rate).
It’s not hard to see the effect this has on the Colts’ pass-catchers. Josh Downs and Michael Pittman have combined to play six games with Flacco under center for the majority of the game and six games with Richardson. In those 12 individual games, they have scored double-digit half-PPR points six times…all six came with Flacco. I wouldn’t recommend starting any Colts receiver with Richardson under center.
7. Nick Chubb Returns
Over a year after suffering a devastating knee injury, Nick Chubb returned to the field for the first time on Sunday. The four-time Pro Bowler played just 35.1-percent of the Browns’ offensive snaps, but he easily led the team with 11 rushing attempts. He also even saw three targets, tied for the 16th-most he’s seen in 78 career games — this may be nothing, but it may be a sign the Browns plan to involve him more in the passing game than he has been in the past.
On the downside, Chubb’s efficiency didn’t look great (albeit in an absurdly small sample). According to NextGenStats, he posted just a 27.3-percent success rate and was slightly below his expected rush yards. PFF also gave him just a 55.6 PFF Grade. This isn’t particularly surprising for a 28-year-old coming off a brutal injury. But it’s a very bad sign for a player who has previously relied on outlier-level efficiency for fantasy success. Chubb’s efficiency and usage are both worth keeping in focus as he continues to work his way back, but he’s looking more likely to be a volume-based RB2 or flex on a bad offense (which may get better with Watson out) than the elite RB1 he was in years past.
8. Amari Cooper Shines in Bills Debut
This was actually a bit of an L for me, as I firmly believed Cooper would play a limited role and not provide much fantasy production after having joined the Bills halfway through the week. He did play just 33.3-percent of snaps but made the most of them with four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown (even if Keon Coleman had to tell him what route to run on his touchdown play).
Bills WR Keon Coleman literally had to demonstrate to Amari Cooper what route to run because he didn't know the play before catching his first TD in Buffalo 😂 pic.twitter.com/rGSMphRct7
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) October 20, 2024
He obviously won’t maintain his 42-percent target per route run rate as he starts playing a full snap share, but Cooper is clearly going to be able to earn targets in this Bills’ offense. I originally thought this deal made him a locked in WR2, but there’s a chance the veteran pushes for WR1 consideration as Josh Allen‘s top target.
9. Davante Adams Makes Jets Debut
Already familiar with Nathaniel Hackett’s scheme (and Aaron Rodgers, of course), Adams was able to jump right into an essentially full workload in his debut for the Jets. He posted a 90-percent route participation rate, one route behind Garrett Wilson for the team lead. However, Adams actually had a less productive outing than Cooper, catching just three of his six targets for 30 yards.
The most important question is whether Adams will overtake Wilson as the Jets’ top receiver, still lingers. Wilson did see more targets, nine-to-six, but a one-game sample less than a week after Adams arrived isn’t exactly conclusive. I’ve been skeptical of Wilson as a truly elite talent … but I’ve also been skeptical of the idea that Adams will immediately return to All Pro form upon exiting Las Vegas. Perhaps I’m just a hater, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this ends in a fantasy nightmare scenario where neither receiver establishes themself as the clear No. 1 and both are inconsistent fantasy options.
10. San Francisco’s Injury Woes Continue
In Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and the emerging Jauan Jennings, the 49ers have one of the best wide receiver trios in the league. On Sunday, those three receivers combined for just two catches for 23 yards. Jennings was ruled out before the game with a hip injury, while Deebo lasted just four snaps thanks to an illness. Brandon Aiyuk lasted the longest in this game, but also suffered the worst injury, as he is feared to have torn his ACL.
Assuming the worst (that Aiyuk is out for the season), the 49ers’ offense changes dramatically. If he has been dropped in your league, Jennings is absolutely worth adding, as we all saw what he did when given a full-time role earlier this season. Rookie Ricky Pearsall, who made his debut on Sunday, is also intriguing.
However, the big winners are Deebo and George Kittle. Kittle has taken advantage of the 49ers’ WR availability issues with an absolutely scorching start, providing the consistency he has lacked in years past. Aiyuk missing extended time locks him in as a top-tier TE1. Meanwhile, Deebo’s historical numbers without Aiyuk are absolutely bonkers. Assuming he gets over his illness, he could be a legit WR1 as the 49ers’ undisputed top target.
See all PlayerProfiler articles here.
