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We had an absolutely packed Sunday this week, with zero teams on bye, no London game, and no Monday night doubleheader. The morning slate brought tons of late-game excitement, while the afternoon slate finished on a hilarious Hail Mary. National Tight End Day saw tight ends score 16 touchdowns. Broadcasters mentioned the fake holiday about 10 times that number. Without further ado, let’s jump right into the top fantasy football takeaways from Week 8.
Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 8
1. Cade Otton Is The Buccaneers’ WR1
Probably the biggest fantasy football question heading into Week 8 was who would command targets in Tampa Bay’s offense. Both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were sidelined with injuries. Trey Palmer, Sterling Shepard, and Jalen McMillan were all top wavier pickups heading into the week.
Instead, 2023 UDFA Rakim Jarrett led the team’s WRs with 7.3 half-PPR points (McMillan was just behind at 7.2). However, the actual big winner was third-year TE Cade Otton. Otton caught nine of 10 targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns. The former Washington Husky has always run plenty of routes in the Buccaneers’ offense. His issues with earning targets seem to have been more a result of competing with Evans and Godwin than anything else.
Going forward, Otton is firmly in the TE1 conversation, at least until Evans comes back. As for the receivers, McMillan had the most promising usage. He had a team-high 82-percent route participation rate, a 14-percent Target Share, and a 21-percent first-read target share. If you’re looking for the “Chris Godwin slot replacement,” Shepard led the team with 19 routes (54-percent) from the slot, although his 11-percent target per route run rate was not very Godwin-esque. Jarret dominated on a per-route basis, but ran just nine routes for a 17.6-percent participation rate. He’s not relevant as of yet. McMillan is the clear WR to roster, followed by Shepard.
2. Tua Saves Miami’s Fantasy Hopes
In Tua Tagovailoa‘s return to the field, the Dolphins put up 27 points. That was a huge step up from the 10 they averaged without him. The biggest winner was undeniably De’Von Achane. Achane was miserable with Tua sidelined, but has been straight-up elite when his starting quarterback is healthy.
In Tagovailoa’s three games, Achane has averaged 21.6 half-PPR points per game. He has played just 57-percent of snaps and handled 57-percent of the team’s RB rush attempts, but has posted an absolutely elite 18-percent Target Share — for the season. The only back above a 15.1-percent target share is Alvin Kamara.
As for the other Dolphin skill players, Raheem Mostert was second to Achane with 15.5 points, but it took two goal-line touchdowns for him to get there. Tyreek Hill (10.2) and Jaylen Waddle (6.5) didn’t exactly light the world on fire, either. However, Tua’s return coincided with a jump to a pass rate 8.5-percent above expected, a massive change from at least 10-percent below expected in each of the previous three games. Combine that with increased efficiency, and Tua’s rising tide should continue to lift all boats in this offense.
3. The Chargers Have Exited the Stone Age
With a pass rate 6.2-percent above expected this week, the Chargers have now been at least five-percent above expected in two straight weeks. This is a huge change from the first five games of the season, in which they averaged a pass rate 7.2-percent below expected. That was at least 3.9-percent below expected in every game.
This is particularly huge news for rookie WR Ladd McConkey. Coming into Week 8, he had an elite 25-percent target per route run rate on a solid 81-percent target share, but was averaging just 8.4 fantasy points per game. That was thanks to the team’s low pass volume and some bad luck. Both of those went away this week. He caught all six of his targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns. His 18.8-percent target share was actually his second lowest of the season, but he made the most of his opportunities.
Meanwhile, Justin Herbert posted his first top-10 finish off the season, fresh off posting his first top-20 finish in Week 7. Hopefully, the Chargers continue to lean into the passing game a bit more (or at least don’t return to league-worst pass rates). As long as they do, Herbert is back in the fantasy conversation, and McConkey is a weekly starter.
4. Do We Have a New Konami Code Fantasy Quarterback?
With nearly 30 points on Sunday, Bo Nix has now finished in the top 10 fantasy QBs in three of the last four weeks. Over that span, he has rushed for either a touchdown or 60-plus yards in every game. For the season, the rookie ranks third in the league in scrambles and seventh in designed runs. Nix has also improved in the passing game, averaging 217.5 yards through the air over the last four games compared to 165 in his first four.
I’m not entirely sold on Nix as a weekly QB1 just yet. After all, this week’s outing was against the Panthers, so we should probably only count half of those points. He’s also been fairly lucky to score four rushing touchdowns on just six rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line. But any young QB flashing this kind of upside is absolutely worth adding.
5. Drake Maye Keeps Thriving
The third overall pick was a top-10 fantasy QB in each of his first two NFL starts. And he was well on his way to a third top-10 finish before exiting early with a concussion this week. Thanks mostly to a 17-yard touchdown rush, Maye scored 11.52 fantasy points on just 30-percent of the Patriots’ offensive snaps.
In many ways, Maye’s profile is similar to Nix’s. They both have had success scrambling, but haven’t necessarily been efficient throwing the ball (Maye is at 6.7 yards per attempt to Nix’s 5.9). However, Maye has one key advantage over Nix in terms of fantasy outlook: His team is terrible. Coming into this week, the Broncos’ defense ranked best in the league in terms of EPA per play. The Patriots were fifth-worst. Nix is already pushing for QB1 consideration while playing in a very conservative offense. New England is constantly playing from behind (except against the Jets, lol), so Maye will get more opportunities to cut it loose. His concussion means he may slide under the radar for another week or two, but Maye is absolutely worth adding in most formats.
6. Christian Watson Beats Out Dontayvion Wicks
It’s been hard to get a read on the Packers’ receiving room this season. Green Bay has four talented young receivers, and three of them have missed time for one reason or another this season. However, some trends have been clear.
When he’s available, Romeo Doubs is the one WR who can be counted on to play a full snap share, averaging an 81-percent route participation rate. Jayden Reed is also used consistently when healthy, but he essentially never plays in two-WR sets, leading to a 71-percent participation rate for the season. Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks have competed for the remaining WR spot in the Packers offense.
However, Watson seems to have pulled ahead in that competition. He ran 20 routes (67-percent participation) to Wicks’ eight (27-percent participation) this week. That was a huge change from last week in which they both ran an identical number of routes. This could certainly change again, as this situation has been in flux all season. But if this usage continues, Watson is back on the table as a flex option, while Wicks is droppable in most leagues.
7. Deshaun Watson Really Was That Bad
Jameis Winston threw for 300 yards on Sunday (334 to be exact). Deshaun Watson has not done that once in 19 games as a Brown. Even against a very beatable Ravens secondary, Winston was a clear huge upgrade, although he did have a couple of his trademark inexplicable passes. He was was lucky those were not intercepted.
From a fantasy perspective, it’s suddenly much more important who the top targets are in this Browns passing attack. Unfortunately, Winston spread the ball around this week, with each of David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, and Elijah Moore seeing between seven and 12 targets.
Those 12 went to Moore, who led the group with a 27-percent target share. That said, Moore has consistently served as the Browns’ third/slot receiver. He has a 73-percent route share for the season that hasn’t changed at all with Amari Cooper‘s departure. Unless Winston throws for 300 yards every week (not impossible, but unlikely), Moore is just a deep-league option. I’m much more intrigued by Tillman, who further increased his route share to 84-percent this week. Tillman now has a 23-percent target share, 37-percent air yards share, and 27-percent first-read share in two games without Cooper. Jeudy is also relevant, but continues to struggle to earn targets on his team-leading route shares. Njoku is a locked-in TE1.
8. Jacksonville Loses All of Their Receivers
A week after the other Florida team lost their top two targets, one for the season and one for multiple weeks, the Jaguars one-upped them by losing all three off their starting WRs. Christian Kirk suffered a broken collarbone that will knock him out for the rest of the season. Stud rookie Brian Thomas Jr. will reportedly miss between two and four weeks with a chest/rib injury. Gabriel Davis also exited early with a shoulder injury, although we have yet to get an update on his status. These three receivers have accounted for 63-percent of the Jaguars’ receiving yards for the season, not to mention of their 88-percent WR routes coming into Sunday.
This situation isn’t quite as appealing as the one in Tampa for a couple of reasons. For one, Evan Engram is a legitimate target hog out of the TE position (this news does secure him as a TE1, by the way). For another, the Buccaneers’ passing offense is one of the most productive in the league, while the Jaguars are right around average.
Still, there are now targets to be claimed in this offense. The obvious add is second-year receiver Parker Washington, who was a sixth-round pick in last year’s draft. He easily led the team’s WRs in routes on Sunday after the three starters left early. I should note that Parker’s efficiency metrics, especially an 11-percent target per route run rate and 50.8 PFF Receiving Grade, are not at all encouraging. But as the Jaguars’ WR1 by default, he’s worth considering.
9. Calvin Ridley Lives
It’s tempting to dismiss Calvin Ridley‘s big game as a fluke in a wasted season for the Titans, but there are actually some very promising underlying metrics behind his 10-catch, 143-yard performance.
The Titans have rotated their receivers throughout the season, but that changed this week with DeAndre Hopkins in KC and Treylon Burks on IR. Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine both posted elite 93-percent route participation rates. Prior to this week, Ridley’s season-high participation rate was just 84-percent. He hadn’t been above 77-percent since Week 2.
Not only was Ridley on the field more consistently, but he was the first look more often, with a 41-percent first-read target share, way up from 25-percent over the first seven weeks. As a result, Ridley posted a 40-percent target share, again easily his highest of the season.
Now, I’m not saying that Ridley is a locked-in WR1 (or even WR3) for the rest of the season. It’s likely this 40-percent target share remains a season-high. He also benefited from Mason Rudolph being under center. Rudolph’s 4.40 adjusted net yards per attempt is terrible, but it’s somehow still much better than Will Levis‘ putrid 2.74. The Titans still reportedly plan to turn right back to Levis when his shoulder is healthy, which will be a huge blow to this offense’s hope of competency. Still, with a very soft schedule coming up and a suddenly elite role, Ridley may be able to force his way into flex conversations going forward.
10. Traded Veteran Receivers Disappoint
This NFL season has already seen three splashy, fantasy-relevant trades. A combined 16 Pro Bowls worth of receivers have been traded in the form of Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, and Amari Cooper. Unfortunately, those three former superstars haven’t yet lived up to expectations on their new teams. On Sunday, they scored 12.1 Half-PPR points…combined.
To be fair to Adams, most of those points were his. He finished with four catches on six targets for 54 yards. To be unfair to Adams, he was the member of this trio most expected to hit the ground running, playing with his old friend Aaron Rodgers. Before Adams was even moved, I expressed my concern that the 31-year-old wouldn’t live up to expectations on a new team. So far, it appears I was right. Adams has seen just an 18-percent target share (Garrett Wilson is at 25-percent), and posted just 1.31 yards per route run so far as a Jet. His average PFF Receiving Grade in New York is just 53.4 — that would rank No. 98 out of 102 qualified WRs for the season. Especially with the Jets’ offense as a whole struggling, Adams is looking closer to a WR3 than a WR1.
Cooper, meanwhile, posted just a 62-percent route participation rate in his second game in Buffalo, the third-most among Bills WRs. He caught just one of two targets for three yards. We can hope he’s still settling in, but he’ll need to start running more routes ASAP to be more than a boom-or-bust flex. (For what it’s worth, his own efficiency numbers aren’t much better than Adams’.)
Hope for Hopkins
Hopkins’ dud is the least concerning, as he joined the Chiefs just a few days before their Week 8 game. However, it would still have been more promising if he posted a route participation rate above 33-percent. It’s also worth noting that he ran just two of his 14 routes out of the slot. The hope that he would take over the very valuable “Rashee Rice role” may have been unfounded. The Chiefs may also continue to use the 32-year-old (who is playing through a preseason MCL injury) in a part-time role. It’s not like they need him to win games.
All three of these veteran receivers are talented, and they could easily all settle into their new situations and be reliable fantasy contributors down the stretch. But, as of right now, the concepts of these trades were more exciting than the reality.
See The Rookie Report, detailing rookie performances and usage trends from Week 8.
