Welcome back to Lucid Streams. Our goal here is to help you find emergency help that’s potentially available on the waiver wire or on the back of your bench when you’re scrambling for options due to injuries or plain old poor drafting at wide receiver and tight end. We also want to equip you with the tools to go out on your own and find the best fantasy football sleepers yourself in case the options listed here each week aren’t available to you. Our goal is to find WRs who have at least a reasonable chance to contribute 10+ PPR points to your lineup this week and TEs who can chip in at least seven points in PPR.
Last week was a nightmare for fantasy scoring overall, and it was particularly difficult at the WR position. Only 31 WRs in the entire league managed to top our 10-point threshold for a winning recommendation. That’s the definition of swimming upstream, folks. It’s no surprise that only one of my recommendations made it to the promised land of 10+ points, Quentin Johnston. The news was much better at TE, though, where four of our five TE recommendations hit the proverbial jackpot of at least seven PPR points (no TE premium).
The Process
What we are looking for each week is to find the players most likely to pop for one of several reasons. They may have an increased role in their offense due to the misfortune of a player ahead of them on the depth chart, or they may be facing a defense that will have trouble defending them due to a positional mismatch. Maybe that’s a chronic problem of the defense, or maybe it’s due to injuries in the coverage units, which will allow a unique opportunity for success by our streamer. At the intersection of high opportunity and low rostership is where we want to pan for gold in the stream. Remember, these are recommendations for those who are really in a bind for a starter and should not be played over anyone you’d normally start.
We’ll use a variety of tools to help us, including schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the WR and TE positions. If you’re not familiar with this metric, it removes the variance that can skew fantasy points allowed by a defense due to the quality of the passing attacks they’ve faced. For example, if Defense A has faced four top-tier passing offenses in the first four weeks while Defense B has faced only weak passing offenses over that same period, it could appear that Defense B is better at defending WRs than Defense A, when in reality, Defense A might be the tougher matchup. The further we get into the season, the more relevance this analysis has.
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Streaming Wide Receivers Week 11
Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers haven’t had to do a lot of passing lately, but this week I’m betting on a shootout with the Bengals. Cincinnati has the sixth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed vs. WRs, and the Chargers are going to need all hands on deck this week.
DeMario Douglas, New England Patriots
Drake Maye has been an under-the-radar success from the 2024 QB draft class, looking not only better than Jacoby Brissett but also significantly better than anyone the Patriots have trotted out at QB since Tom Brady took his talents to Tampa Bay. Douglas is seeing the benefits of that upgrade and now gets to face a beatable Rams pass defense.
Mike Williams, Pittsburgh Steelers
With another week of learning the Steelers’ offense under his belt, Big Mike Williams will help himself to a bigger slice of the receiving pie against the Ravens’ league-worst defense vs. WRs. The Ravens can put points on the board against any defense, so the Steelers may have to fill the air with footballs to keep up. Big Mike is a fantastic fit with Russell Wilson‘s deep-ball theatrics.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, New Orleans Saints
Few players have been as boom or bust over the years as MVS, so it’s a bit terrifying to recommend him following one of his patented boom weeks. Unfortunately for the Saints, though, they have few other decent options in their passing attack. The Browns offer a defense that’s been beatable by opposing WRs, so if you need to swing for the fences, at least you know it’s in MVS’s range of outcomes to hit big.
Honorable Mentions
- Elijah Moore: We’re going to stick with the Browns-Saints tilt and take the other side with Moore. The Saints’ pass defense is atrocious, and this is a narrative-street special revenge game for his QB, Jameis Winston.
Streaming Tight Ends Week 11
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
There’s a decent chance that Dalton Kincaid will be held out of this week’s tilt with the Kansas City Chiefs due to a knee injury. That has Knox landing squarely on our streaming radar, as he’s been heavily used in the passing game when Kincaid misses time. It doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs are the third-easiest defense for opposing TEs to solve.
Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins
At this point, it’s fair to assume it’s just willful stubbornness that’s keeping Jonnu Smith under 30-percent owned in Yahoo leagues (and most other non-TE-premium platforms) because he’s been quietly startable in four of the past five weeks. Tyreek Hill has a bad wrist, Jaylen Waddle is unstartable, and Jonnu Smith is one of the few bankable options in this offense.
Will Dissly, Los Angeles Chargers
Dissly is the most reliable of the unreliable TE options at Justin Herbert‘s disposal. If that sounds like I’m damning him with faint praise, you are correct. However, as previously noted, this week is likely to involve a shootout with the Bengals, the not-so-proud owners of the schedule-adjusted eighth-worst defense vs TEs. Dissly is worth a shot if you’re in a jam.
Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders
This is our narrative-street special in the TE department, as Ertz has an opportunity for a revenge game against his former Eagles team. The Eagles are the best defense in the league vs. TEs, but Ertz is still worthy of consideration here, given he’s a big part of the Commanders’ offense.
Honorable Mention
- Tyler Conklin: This week’s opponent for the Jets, the Indianapolis Colts, are the second-worst team in the league against TEs. Conklin’s hard to trust any week, but he’s generally performed well against teams that struggle vs. TEs.
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