In evaluating pass-catching performance, target-earning metrics can be key factors to see how much of an offensive role a player is earning. Target Share shows how many passes of a team’s total a player is earning. Targets per route run, or Target Rate, breaks that down further and measures a player’s target-earning efficiency. These stats together help identify trends in player usage and potential fantasy breakouts or regressions. In Week 11, I check up on the target trends of key players fantasy managers drafted and diagnose late-season trends heading into the playoffs.
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Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey
To start things off, let’s take a look at Christian McCaffrey‘s usage since his return. A receiving running back his entire career, this season off Achilles issues is no different. McCaffrey’s Target Share lands at 20.0-percent, seeing 12 total targets in the two games he has played.
The only reason he has yet to cross the 20-point threshold in fantasy has been a lack of touchdowns. With Brandon Aiyuk out for the season and George Kittle dealing with injuries, McCaffrey is locked in as a top target out of the backfield. If you have had him stashed, you are enjoying a target-earning fantasy RB1.
Austin Ekeler & Brian Robinson
The Commanders backfield has actually been fruitful to fantasy managers who roster either of them. Between the two, Austin Ekeler is the receiving back, getting a 13.0-percent (No. 7) Target Share. Brian Robinson profiles as the rusher, seeing a 5.8-percent Target Share. Though Ekeler is the clear pass-catching option, Robinson has been dealing with injury. When both played Weeks 1-4, neither had more than four targets. Ekeler is the target-earner and FLEX option while Robinson earns enough targets to assist his rushing volume and keep him as an RB2.
Wide Receivers
DeMario Douglas & Kayshon Boutte
The youth movement has taken over in the Patriots offense, with Drake Maye leading the way. Two of the top wideouts he has thrown to are DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte. Since Maye took over in Week 6, Douglas has 36 targets and Boutte has 29 targets in six games. While it hasn’t conveyed into crooked high fantasy points yet, both have sizeable shares of a growing offense. Douglas is the slot/screen guy, while Boutte takes more downfield targets. Douglas and Boutte rank as a WR4 and WR5, respectively.
Courtland Sutton
Ever since Courtland Sutton‘s zero-target Week 7, he has been one of the highest-volume target earners in the league. Sutton’s 38 targets in the last four games have yielded four straight fantasy finishes of at least 14 fantasy points and two top six finishes. He is Bo Nix‘s big target on the perimeter, ranking No. 11 among receivers in Receiving EPX. With a favorable matchup in Week 12 against the Raiders, Sutton can be fired up with WR2 upside.
Courtland Sutton first 5 games:
14.0-yard average target depth
42% catch rate
13.2 yards per catch
5.5 yards per targetLast 6 games:
12.6-yard average target depth
73% catch rate
13.2 yards per catch
9.6 yards per target— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 18, 2024
Tight Ends
Will Dissly
The Chargers offense has installed Will Dissly as a top pass-catcher in recent weeks. He has six targets in each of his last two games and a season-long 17.3-percent (No. 13) Target Share. Throw in a 39.7-percent (No. 1) Target Rate and Dissly’s usage led to an 18-point game last week, good for TE6 on the week. Though Dissly is usually not on the field for more than 65-percent of snaps, he is one of Justin Herbert‘s favorite receivers over the middle of the field while Hayden Hurst has been inactive. Fire up Dissly as a low-end TE1 over the brutal Week 12 bye week.
Pat Freiermuth
Though Russell Wilson has injected some life into the Steelers offense, Pat Freiermuth has not been a big part of it. He has seen over three targets four times this season, all coming in the first four weeks. Since then, Freiermuth has gotten two or three targets each game, leading to a 13.7-percent (No. 19) Target Share on the season (pending Week 11 TNF).
He is still a top-three receiving option on the team, but the passing game runs through George Pickens while Darnell Washington is involved at tight end and the running game is a big part of the Steelers offense. Freiermuth is benchable moving forward.
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