Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 12: Is Noah Gray Worth Adding?

by Ted Chmyz · Fantasy Football

Week 12 is in the books, and it was another wild one. Saquon Barkley ended hopes and dreams on Sunday night, while Caleb Williams and the Bears’ revamped offense looked massively improved for the second straight week. Some guy named “Patrick Mahomes” may even be set for a late-season breakout with his second game above 20 fantasy points all season. Without further ado, let’s break down the most important fantasy football stats and storylines from Week 12’s action.

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Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 12

1. The Bears’ New Offense is Working

Last week, in their first week under new OC Thomas Brown, the Bears’ offense looked different. Plenty of things changed (more Roschon Johnson usage, more Cole Kmet snaps, more three-WR sets), but the most important changes came in the passing game. Specifically, Brown dialed up a ton of easy-button throws for Caleb Williams, resulting in his first-read target rate skyrocketing.  

That change continued this week. Through two games under Brown, Caleb is now averaging an 82-percent first-read target rate. That is not just a huge step up from his 61-percent in Weeks 1-10; it would also rank first in the league by over 5-percent for the entire season. This change is working as Williams’s adjusted net yards per attempt has jumped from 4.5 (terrible) to 6.8 (good). He’s back in the QB1 conversation as long as this keeps up.

This increase in first-read targets also dramatically impacts the Bears’ weapons, and the big winners are D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. Over the last two weeks, Allen has a 34-percent first-read target share that has converted to 11.5 targets per game — as long as this keeps up, he’s firmly back in weekly start territory. Moore’s first-read target share of 22-percent is actually behind both Allen and Rome Odunze (who also should be upgraded in this new offense), but the nature of his targets has changed dramatically. He has seen nine screen targets in the last two games after averaging just over one per game in the first 10 weeks of the season. Those nine screen passes have turned into nine receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. Ideally, we would see more down-the-field looks for DJM as well, but this screen usage gives him a massive floor upgrade. 

2. Anthony Richardson Comes Back to Earth … or Does He?

At first glance, this week was a return to form (derogatory) for Anthony Richardson. After jumping up to a 77-percent catchable target rate in Week 11, he fell back to a miserable 54-percent on Sunday. That’s even lower than his 63-percent season average, which is already easily the worst in the league.

However, there are reasons to believe this performance wasn’t as bad as that single number would indicate it. PFF gave him the fifth-highest Passing Grade (pending Monday Night Football) of the week, and I’ve seen multiple smart analysts on Twitter arguing that he actually played a solid game against a tough Colts defense.

With that said, I’m not sure I buy it. At the end of the day, Richardson has been the least accurate quarterback we’ve seen in years all season, except for last week. If this week’s bad numbers were an outlier, I’d be more willing to accept excuses (drops, throwaways, pressure, etc.). 

On the bright side for his own fantasy value, Richardson has posted 10 rushing attempts in each of his two games since reclaiming the Colts’ starting job — he averaged 7.6 in his first five full games. He is still a boom-or-bust streaming QB option, with upside for way more in games where he gets it together as a passer. However, until that happens consitently, we are back to all Colts passing-game options (including the unfortunately injured Josh Downs) being risky options each week.   

3. Rachaad White Can’t Keep Getting Away With It

With a goal-line rushing TD on Sunday, Rachaad White has now scored six combined touchdowns (four receiving and two rushing) in his last five games. According to PFF’s expected fantasy points model, he had just 2.5 expected touchdowns (0.9 receiving and 1.6 rushing) in that same span. Obviously, this level of TD scoring is unsustainable, but White’s issues go deeper than that.

On Sunday, White ran fewer routes than fellow RB Bucky Irving for the first time all season. It wasn’t close, either, as the rookie posted a 56-percent route participation rate to White’s 31-percent. This corresponded with White posting his lowest target share of the season (3.3-percent, one target) while Irving racked up seven targets. 

On the ground, White actually tied Irving with 12 carries apiece. (Sean Tucker also saw four carries, including a goal-line TD, but he played just five snaps, including only one after he fumbled early in the second quarter.) It’s great for White that he equaled Irving in carries, but he was outgained 87 to 37 on those touches. For the season, Irving laps White in both yards per carry (5.1 to 3.8) and yards over expected per carry (+0.92 vs. -0.02). I can’t imagine this 50/50 split lasts, and even if it does White doesn’t have the efficiency to make the most of it. The one thing White could hang his hat on fantasy-wise was dominating receiving work, but even that seems to be slipping. If you can get anything at all for him in a trade, do it. 

4. The Broncos’ Backfield is Useless  

In a dream matchup against the Raiders, on a day where their offense scored 29 points, Jaleel McLaughlin led Broncos RBs with a whopping total of 4.4 Half-PPR fantasy points. After him came fullback Michael Burton with 1.6 points, while Audric Estime and Javonte Williams scored 1.5 and 1.4 points respectively.

The big loser of that group this week was Williams, who underperformed his expected points massively. He led the group in snap share (57-percent), rush attempts (eight, a 42-percent RB rush share), and targets (three). But he somehow turned those eight carries into negative two yards, and caught two of three targets for only six more yards. This continued a trend for Williams of being one of the league’s worst rushers.

Looking at the rest of the backfield, there’s very little to like. McLaughlin’s usage is heavily capped (his season high in snap share is 40-percent, and his average is 27-percent), and he hasn’t shown the same juice he had as a rookie. Estime, who looked like he had taken over this backfield just two weeks ago, played just five snaps this week. No RB from this team should be in fantasy lineups going forward. 

5. The Vikings’ Veterans Are Back

In last week’s article I expressed concern about the usage for two veterans in Minnesota, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones. Hockeson’s route participation rate was stagnating in his return from injury, and Jones was ceding more and more work to Cam Akers each week. This week, both those trends reversed. 

With Josh Oliver sidelined by an ankle injury, Hockenson set a new season high with a 76-percent route participation rate. He ranked second on the team with eight targets (a 23-percent share), catching seven for 114 yards. We will have to see if Oliver’s return brings his participation back down, but Hockenson is firmly back in the starting TE conversation as long as this usage spike lasts. 

Meanwhile, Jones handled 22 of the Vikings’ 25 RB rushes, good for an elite 88-percent share. He also posted a 58-percent route participation rate, a big step up from last week, in which he had fallen down to 35-percent. I don’t think we’ve seen the last of Akers as a thorn in the side of Jones’ fantasy managers, but this was a huge step back in the right direction.

6. Noah Gray’s Big Days

The leader in Half-PPR points at the tight end position over the last two weeks is … Jonnu Smith. And then it’s Taysom Hill, even though he was on bye this week. But after those two, comes Noah Gray, who has scored over 16 fantasy points in each of his last two games.

Gray has flexed on his teammate Travis Kelce over these last two weeks. The duo is tied with eight receptions a piece, but Gray beats out the future Hall of Famer in yards per game (54 to 35) and touchdowns (four to zero). Unfortunately, that final stat points to the truth of Gray’s “breakout” — it’s just TD variance. 

Although he did see an unusually high participation rate in Week 11, Gray fell back down to a 49-percent participation rate on Sunday. That’s only slightly above his season average, and no one cared when he averaged 3.6 Half-PPR points over the first 10 weeks of the season. Don’t bother chasing the points with Gray on waiver wires this week — from a fantasy perspective, he’s off-brand Isaiah Likely, and even the original Isaiah Likely isn’t a great option. 

7. Bo Nix is On Fire

Bo Nix has finished as a top 12 fantasy quarterback in four of the last five weeks, including two top five finishes and three top seven finishes. He trails only Jalen Hurts in total fantasy points since Week 8 (he falls a few spots in PPG but is still the QB6). Making things even more impressive, the rookie is averaging just 3.4 rushing attempts for nine yards over this span, with only one touchdown on the ground. He is getting the job done with straight-up pocket passing goodness.

Now, we need to acknowledge that some regression is likely coming for Nix’s hot streak. In the five games I’ve been focusing on, the Broncos have scored 14 total touchdowns. Nix has personally accounted for 12 of them, with 11 passing TDs and the one aforementioned rushing score. Even on a team with arguably the league’s worst backfield, that distribution of TDs isn’t normal, and it’s probably going to regress. Still, what Nix is doing is undeniably impressive and worth noting for fantasy. The Broncos have a decent schedule coming up, and Nix is worth considering as a QB1 option. 

8. Jonathon Brooks Makes Uninspiring Debut

In his much-anticipated NFL debut, the 46th-overall pick in this year’s draft finished with a grand total of two carries for seven yards on five snaps. At this point, it seems very unlikely that he manages to carve out a fantasy-relevant role in time to be useable during the fantasy playoffs.

With that in mind, this blurb is actually much more about Chuba Hubbard. Brooks’ role will likely expand as he works his way into shape, but his debut couldn’t have gone any better for the Panthers’ current RB1. With Miles Sanders placed on IR and the rookie essentially irrelevant, Hubbard handled 88-percent of the Panthers’ offensive snaps and racked up 20 combined touches (16 carries and four targets). He finished with 14.5 Half-PPR points, the second most any back has put up on an elite Chiefs run defense all season. With Bryce Young looking competent and a soft schedule coming up, Hubbard could continue to provide borderline RB1 numbers down the stretch.

9. Rico Dowdle is Finally Running Away With the Cowboys’ Backfield

In the Cowboys’ shocking upset of the Commanders on Sunday, Rico Dowdle played 64-percent of the offensive snaps. That is nearly 15-percent clear of his season average and easily his highest mark of the season in a game where Ezekiel Elliott was active. He dominated usage, too, handling 19 carries to Elliott’s three while no other Dallas RB saw a carry. That 86-percent RB rush share represents a huge jump up from his average heading into Week 12, which was just 54-percent. 

Dowdle’s usage was less dominant in the receiving game, where both Elliott and fullback Hunter Luepke were involved, but he still led the backfield with a 27-percent route participation rate and three targets. 

We’ve seen this backfield shift throughout the season, but this week was a leap in the right direction for Dowdle. It comes at the perfect time, as three of the Cowboys’ next four matchups come against top six schedule-adjusted matchups for running backs (the Giants, Panthers, and Buccaneers). It might not feel great plugging Dowdle into your lineup with Cooper Rush under center, but this usage could allow him to come up clutch in some of the most important fantasy weeks of the season.

10. Is Noah Brown the Commanders’ WR1? 

Over the last four weeks, Noah Brown leads the Commanders’ offense with a 20-percent target share. His 34-percent air yards share is also the team’s highest, as are his 77-percent route participation rate and his 26-percent first-read target share. The only statistic where he doesn’t lead the Commanders is unfortunately the one that matters most: fantasy points. Terry McLaurin, thanks in no small part to his miracle 86-yard TD on Sunday, takes that crown by a solid margin.

In fact, Brown has been very disappointing given his solid usage, with just 6.1 Half-PPR points per game. His time as the team’s “WR1” has coincided with a period of down performances for the Commanders’ offense, and he is also underperforming his expected fantasy points by over 50-percent. With that said, we can’t ignore this usage. Especially with Jayden Daniels looking more like himself on Sunday, seeing consistent targets in this offense could make Brown a solid fantasy option. He doesn’t have to (and almost certainly won’t) keep out-targeting Scary Terry to be a useable player in some soft matchups in the fantasy playoffs.  

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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.