This is the Air Yards Report Week 13! Find out which players led Week 12 in Air Yards and how YOU should use Air Yards when setting your fantasy lineups.
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What are Air Yards?
Air Yards measure how many yards the football travels past the line of scrimmage on a passing play. Some Air Yards come from completed passes and some are incomplete passes. They are not a perfect measurement of future fantasy success but a tool that we can utilize to help us make lineup decisions.
This season, we will parse through the Air Yards metric to help identify players who you should prioritize as starters in your fantasy lineups, players who disappointed but are likely to bounce back based on their Air Yards, and players you should feel free to fade despite voluminous Air Yards.
Air Yards Standouts Who Shined in Week 12
Nico Collins | Houston Texans — 106 Air Yards (9th Overall)
Nico Collins scored 20.2 fantasy points after catching five receptions for 92 yards and a touchdown. This was the most amount of Air Yards he saw in a game since his return from his hamstring injury and the first time he topped 100 Air Yards since week 4. Needless to say, C.J. Stroud‘s WR1 is back. He is in line for another smash spot this week against the hapless Jaguars secondary.
Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos — 104 Air Yards (10th Overall)
Quick. Where does Courtland Sutton rank among all wide receivers in targets this season? If you guessed fifth, you’d be correct, but let’s be real your guess was likely a lot lower. Sutton has failed to see less than eight targets a game since Week 8. During this time, he has failed to finish lower than WR26 and has three finishes as a top 6 wide receiver or better. Sutton will look to continue his bounce back season against the Browns this Sunday and is a no brainer start in all formats.
Players Who Disappointed but Will Bounce Back
George Pickens | Pittsburgh Steelers— 143 Air Yards (2nd Overall)
George Pickens saw a bunch of Russell Wilson moonballs last Thursday against the Browns but only scored 8.8 fantasy points after catching four receptions for 48 scoreless yards. Expect much bigger things this week in a game that could shoot out against the Bengals.
Pickens is No. 3 in the league among wide receivers with 1,141 total Air Yards and is the only thing going in the Steelers passing attack as evidenced by his 43.5-percent Air Yards Share (no. 5 among qualified receivers) and 29.1-percent Target Share (no. 5 among qualified receivers)
Marvin Harrison Jr. | Arizona Cardinals— 74 Air Yards (28th Overall)
Things haven’t gone as envisioned for Marvin Harrison Jr. when he was drafted as a top 5 pick by the Cardinals. He has clearly taken a back seat to Trey McBride as the Cardinals top target getter. The veteran tight end out targeted MHJ 15 to 6 last week. However, Harrison has out gained McBride by over 100 yards the past four games. While McBride will likely continue his PPR dominance, it is only a matter of time until the MHJ spike week.
Air Yards Player to Fade
Josh Palmer | Los Angeles Chargers – 202 Air Yards (1st Overall)
Josh Palmer led the league in Air Yards last week and led the Chargers in targets against an exploitable Ravens secondary. However, Palmer failed to capitalize on the opportunity scoring only 6.8 fantasy points.
This game is a clear abnormality for Palmer as his prior season high in Air Yards in a game was 79 in Week 9. Don’t bank on Palmer seeing this type of opportunity moving forward.
Tight End to Prioritize
Hunter Henry | New England Patriots — 76 Air Yards (4th Overall)
Hunter Henry has seen at least eight targets in four of his last six games. Despite a tough matchup against the Colts this week, Henry remains a preferred TE1 play.
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