Welcome to the Fantasy Football Week 15 recap! I hope you survived the first week of the fantasy playoffs, either on a bye or with a first-round victory. Just like last week, this week’s takeaways will be more focused now that we are in the playoffs. Yes, Jahmyr Gibbs is probably going to win championships now that David Montgomery is done for the season. But, with trade deadlines long past, you either have him or you don’t (and you’re starting him if you’ve got him). Instead, I’ll focus on players on the fringes — either the fringes of rosters (for Add/Drop) or the fringes of starting lineups for (Start/Sit). Even with this limited scope, there are still plenty of interesting takeaways from a full slate of games, so let’s get started!
PlayerProfiler is home to award winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out.
Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 15
1. Calvin Austin is the Steelers Wide Receiver to Roster
With George Pickens out for the first time last week, no Steelers receiver played a full-time role. That changed this week, as Calvin Austin easily led the team with a 92-percent route participation rate (Pat Freiermuth was second at 81-percent, a very good number for a tight end).
The third-year receiver also led the team with five targets (a 23-percent target share), catching all five for 65 yards. That may not sound like much, but it’s not bad against a Philadelphia defense that has been shutting down opposing passing games in recent weeks. Heading into a matchup with a beatable Ravens secondary, Austin is someone to consider if you’re desperate for wide receiver help.
2. Xavier Worthy is the Only Playable Recevier in Kansas City
Don’t look now, but Xavier Worthy has arrived. The first-round rookie racked up 11 targets on Sunday (28-percent target share), catching six for 46 yards. He also added a “rushing” touchdown on a swing pass from Patrick Mahomes that traveled just barely backward. Most encouragingly for his chances of continuing to produce consistently, Worthy posted an 86-percent route participation rate, his second straight week above 80-percent after hovering around 70-percent for most of the season.
Meanwhile, no other Chiefs receiver recorded more than a 55-percent route participation rate (JuJu Smith-Schuster) or a 15-percent target share (DeAndre Hopkins). Hopkins in particular continues to put up excellent per-route numbers, but his already part-time usage got even worse on Sunday as he posted just a 48-percent route participation rate — he’s not playable until that changes, which isn’t likely to happen in this fantasy season.
Of course, all of these receivers, Worthy included, will take a big hit in value if Patrick Mahomes misses time with an ankle injury (he is currently week-to-week). Keep an eye on that situation but, even if Mahomes is in, Worthy is the only wide receiver I recommend starting from this offense.
3. There Might Not Be Any Playable Receivers in Buffalo
The Chiefs may be using a WR-by-committee approach, but at least Travis Kelce is still their clear TE1. The Bills are running their entire passing offense by committee. Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid returned this week, joining Khalil Shakir, Dawson Knox, Mack Hollins, Amari Cooper, and Curtis Samuel as potential weapons for Josh Allen. Amazingly, all seven of those players posted at least a 24-percent route participation rate on Sunday, and they all saw at least two targets … except Amari Cooper, at zero.
Of course, many players being involved is actually terrible for fantasy, where we want concentrated offenses. Khalil Shakir led the group with a 65-percent route participation rate, followed up by Knox (60-percent) and Kincaid (54-percent) — no other receiver hit even 50-percent. Shakir and Kincaid each saw seven targets (21-percent share), while no other player saw more than three.
Even with the Bills having scored over 40 points in each of the last two games, Shakir has been the only usable player in both contests. Even he finished with just 39 yards on Sunday, relying on a TD to salvage a decent fantasy day. Heading into two matchups that probably won’t be shootouts against the Patriots and Jets, I wouldn’t want to start any Buffalo players in the fantasy semifinals or championship game.
4. Start Jerome Ford Without Nick Chubb?
Eight weeks after returning from the devastating knee injury that ended his 2023 season, Nick Chubb‘s 2024 is over, as he suffered a broken foot. After Chubb’s early exit, Jerome Ford racked up 17.4 Half-PPR points, thanks mostly to an impressive 62-yard touchdown run. If we only look at snaps after Chubb exited, Ford’s usage was immaculate as he played 83-percent of the offense snaps and handled every RB touch (Pierre Strong played five snaps without a touch).
However, we should remember that we have a decent sample of what this Browns backfield looked like without Chubb from earlier in the season. In Weeks 1-6, Ford averaged just 8.5 Half-PPR points per game on a 59-percent snap share. He saw just a 50-percent RB rush share, including multiple games in which D’Onta Foreman (who was inactive with Chubb back but will likely return going forward) served as Cleveland’s primary rusher. Ford was also the lead receiving back, with an okay 12-percent target share on a 46-percent route participation rate.
Looking forward, we should expect to see similar usage to what we saw before Chubb’s return for Ford. In decent matchups with the Bengals and Dolphins, that will be enough for him to be a flex option. However, Foreman and Strong will likely both be involved, and we don’t even know who will be under center for Cleveland (more on that later). Ford is a playable, but he is by no means a must-start.
5. A Bad Day For Elite Veteran Running Backs (Except Josh Jacobs)
This has been the season of veteran running backs. Saquon Barkley (27), Joe Mixon (28), and Derrick Henry (30) all moved teams this offseason and are the three position leaders in Half-PPR points per game, and Josh Jacobs (26) and Alvin Kamara (29) both also crack the top 10. However, the first week of the fantasy football playoffs was a massacre for these running backs (except Jacobs), and likely many fantasy managers who relied on them all season.
Alvin Kamara
Kamara finished with a totally fine 15.0 Half-PPR points, but he exited with a groin injury and did not return. His outlook going forward is currently unclear. Sophomore Kendre Miller led the Saints’ backfield in Kamara’s absence and is an absolute must-add in all formats. He would be startable if Kamara misses time.
Saquon Barkley
Barkley also spent some time in the injury tent, but he finished the game … which makes it even more surprising that he put up just 8.4 Half-PPR points. The Eagles used Kenneth Gainwell in the rushing and receiving games, Jalen Hurts scored yet another goal-line TD, and Barkley failed to break off a big run, resulting in a mediocre outing. With that said, Saquon’s situation is the least concerning of this bunch. He should find room to roam against the Commanders and Cowboys over the next two weeks.
Joe Mixon
Mixon dealt with an ankle injury of his own en route to just 8.1 points, his second-lowest healthy finish of the entire season. He recorded just 23 yards on 12 carries, catching five of six targets for 33 yards to at least slightly bail out his production. Unfortunately, he is heading into back-to-back brutal matchups with the Chiefs and Ravens. Especially with the Texans’ offense as a whole struggling to find a rhythm, is it crazy to suggest that Mixon isn’t a must-start over the next two weeks?
Derrick Henry
Henry’s 6.7-point dud was the worst of this group and the most inexplicable. The King didn’t pick up any injuries. He’s been quietly game-script dependent, but this one was ideal as the Ravens dominated the Giants 35-14. But Baltimore ran the score up through the air (five passing TDs) and then leaned on rookie Rasheen Ali to salt the game away in the fourth. With very limited receiving work, Henry needs TDs or big plays to have a big day, and he found neither.
As with Mixon, I’m almost tempted to argue that Henry isn’t a must-start option — he gets the same Pittsburgh defense that contained Saquon this week. However, that’s probably just me trying to justify including this blurb when I said I wouldn’t talk about obvious must-start players. If you are in the playoffs with these veterans, the right move is probably to ride them all the way, for better or worse.
6. A Good Day For Committeee Veteran Running Backs
While Sunday saw bad outings (or bad injury outcomes) for some of the elite veteran RBs around the league, it was actually a great day for veterans in committees … and therefore a bad day for fantasy football managers. Kareem Hunt, Rachaad White, Travis Etienne, and Devin Singletary all saw significant workloads at the expense of their younger, more efficient counterparts.
Kareem Hunt vs. Isiah Pacheco
Many, myself included, expected Hunt to fade into a satellite back role as Isiah Pacheco worked his way back into the Chiefs’ offense. So far, that has not been the case. On Sunday, this duo was in a near-perfect 50/50 split: They both played 28 snaps (37-percent), recorded 13 carries and earned one target. The only separation between the two can be found in routes, where Hunt ran eight (19-percent participation) to Pacheco’s seven (17-percent), although they were both outdone by Samaje Perine (26-percent). With this usage, especially if Mahomes misses time, both Hunt and Pacheco are just fringe flex plays.
Rachaad White vs. Bucky Irving
Speaking of perfect 50/50 splits, we have the Tampa Bay backfield. White and Irving each recorded 15 carries and two targets, although White had the edge in both snaps (52-percent to 43-percent) and route participation (47-percent to 30-percent). Sean Tucker also saw seven carries, but they all came after the game was essentially over. The difference between this situation and the one in Kansas City is that the Buccaneers’ have a straight-up better offense than the Chiefs (they also don’t have to deal with Perine stealing receiving work). Where the Chiefs RBs combined for 10.6 Half-PPR points, Irving and White finished with 12.3 and 14.1 respectively. They are both start-able although their ceilings are capped.
Travis Etienne vs. Tank Bigsby
This backfield seems to have settled into a classic split of rushing back (Bigsby) vs. passing down back (Etienne). That means that Bigsby will be more involved in positive/neutral game scripts, as in Week 14 when he saw 18 carries to Etienne’s four. But Etienne will take the lead in negative game scripts: He played 70-percent of snaps and saw five targets this week. With that said, both will still remain decently involved in their respective domains regardless — Bigsby saw 11 carries to Etienne’s 14 this week, while Etienne saw four targets on a 50-percent route participation rate last week. Heading into winnable matchups with the Raiders and Titans, I prefer Bigsby, but both of these RBs are playable.
Devin Singletary vs. Tyrone Tracy
This backfield is less of an even split than the previous three. Tracy led in snaps (67-percent), route participation (35-percent to 25-percent), carries (10 to eight), and targets (four to three). However, this was still a huge step backward from last week, in which the rookie was a clear workhorse with 16 carries to Singletary’s two. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense is easily the worst of this group, which is impressive considering we just covered a team starting Mac Jones. Singletary is unplayable, while Tracy is a risky flex even with decent matchups against the Falcons and Colts to finish the fantasy season.
7. Jalen Coker Comes Back With a Bang
With Adam Thielen thriving in the slot for the Panthers since returning from IR, it was unclear where Jalen Coker would fit into the Panthers’ offense in his own return from injury. That didn’t matter on Sunday, as Coker caught four of six targets for 110 yards and a touchdown. The rookie and the veteran split time in the slot, with Thielen running 72-percent of his routes inside while Coker was at a perfect 50/50 split.
This duo also easily led the Panthers in overall route participation, posting solid numbers of 89-percent (Thielen) and 83-percent (Coker). We should note that all of this usage and production was likely boosted by the fact that Xavier Legette exited early with a groin injury. But the first-rounder is reportedly considered week-to-week, so the path is clear for Coker and Thielen to form a dynamic duo to finish out the fantasy playoffs. I wouldn’t rush Coker into your lineup for a sneaky tough matchup with the Cardinals next week, but he could be a very intriguing trophy-winning flex play when Carolina hosts the Buccaneers in Week 17.
8. Is Brenton Strange a TE1?
Pending Monday Night Football, Brenton Strange will finish as the Half-PPR TE4 for the first week of the fantasy football playoffs, just as we all expected. He led the position with a whopping 12 targets, catching 10 for 83 yards.
For the season, this was Strange’s fifth game as the Jaguars’ TE1, which he will be for the remainder of the season with Evan Engram on IR. He has averaged 8.6 Half-PPR points per game, earning a 16-percent target share on a 66-percent route participation rate. However, it’s worth noting that all of those games prior to Sunday came with Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis healthy — there is a lot less competition in this Jacksonville offense now than there was to start the year. If you’re looking for TE help, the solution may be a little Strange.
9. Usage Monsters in Tennessee Take a Step Back
The Titans have had one of the worst offenses in the league all season. However, Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley have been able to maintain fantasy value thanks to truly elite usage. Coming into this week, Ridley led all players in air yards since Week 7, as well as ranking No. 6 in target share. Meanwhile, Pollard ranked No. 6 among RBs for the season in attempt share, No. 5 in target share, and No. 6 in expected fantasy points share. They both took steps back this week.
Ridley posted just a 78-percent route participation rate, his lowest since all the way back in Week 7 and a huge drop from the 89-percent he averaged over the previous seven weeks. He also saw five targets for just a 13-percent share. This was his lowest target share since Week 4 and less than half of his average over the last eight weeks. An 13.8-yard ADOT meant he still posted a solid 33-percent air yards share, but he caught just three passes for 41 yards.
Tyjae Spears
Meanwhile, Pollard played just 45-percent of the Titans’ offensive snaps, his first time below 50-percent all season. He also posted season-lows in both route participation rate (15-percent) and targets (zero). Instead, Tyjae Spears was the preferred receiving back, racking up seven targets on a 60-percent participation rate. Pollard did out-carry Spears 17 to four, but Spears even handled two of the team’s three goal-line carries. To be fair, Pollard was banged up in this one, in and out with an ankle injury.
The Titans do still have two tempting matchups to end the fantasy playoffs, facing the Colts next week and the Jaguars in Week 17. They might also be making the switch to Mason Rudolph, who has been at least slightly more competent than Will Levis. Even still, Pollard and Ridley are risky plays as long as their usage is less than ideal.
10. The End of the Jameis Winston Experience?
Jameis Winston‘s tenure as the Browns’ starting quarterback has been epic for fantasy players. In Weeks 8-14, he averaged an absurd 43 pass attempts per game on a 9.5 ADOT. That translated into a truly ridiculous 382 air yards per game to go around for Cleveland’s pass-catchers. Over those six games, each of Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore, Jerry Jeudy, and Cedric Tillman (four games) averaged at least 13.2 Half-PPR points.
However, Winston also threw nine touchdowns in those six games, posted an EPA per play barely better than Daniel Jones, and led the Browns to a 2-4 record. Things went from bad to worse on Sunday, as he threw three picks and took five sacks before being benched for Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the fourth quarter. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski declined to name a starting QB on Monday heading into a Week 16 matchup with the Bengals.
If Winston gets another shot, the Battle of Ohio could be a font of fantasy goodness, and all the Browns’ weapons would be in play. With DTR under center, they would all be downgraded significantly (except perhaps Njoku, if he is healthy). The second-year QB out of UCLA might be a better quarterback than Winston, but he is very unlikely to bring the same level of chucking it, especially as a mobile QB with the ability to scramble.
For more articles from PlayerProfiler, check out the fantasy home page – NFL Fantasy | PlayerProfiler – Fantasy Football News & Media
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
