Welcome back to Lucid Streams. Our goal here is going to change now that we’re into the fantasy playoff weeks. No longer will we dig through the players at the bottom of the barrel for fantasy football sleepers. Sure, if there are options that can help you in a given week that are likely on the waiver wire, we’ll point those out to you. Mostly, though, we are shifting our focus to finding underappreciated players who might be better plays than some of the players you’d normally start, as well as steering you away from any players that might let you down and force an early playoff exit.
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Wide Receiver Starts Week 16
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
Rookie WRs require patience on our part, as they often struggle to put up enough fantasy points to crack starting lineups for much of their inaugural season. Approaching the end of his rookie season, we are starting to see signs that Worthy is gaining the trust of Patrick Mahomes. In Week 15, Worthy earned 11 targets against a tough Browns defense, scored on a rushing play, and nearly scored twice more on receptions. With blistering speed, Worthy is a threat to put up a crooked number every week. If your lineup needs an injection of upside to pull an upset against a stronger team, Worthy is a worthy choice.
Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Speaking of rookie WRs who are finally starting to put it all together and become credible fantasy threats, McMillan has emerged as the No. 2 downfield option in the Buccaneers’ aerial attack behind only Mike Evans over the past two weeks. He’s scored three TDs over that span, and this week he faces off against a Cowboys secondary that is in absolute shambles due to injuries and poor play. Bankrolling the Buccaneer offense has worked all year, so we’re going to recommend McMillan proactively.
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers
Jennings has failed to crack 10 fantasy points in three of the last four games, so why am I recommending him as a start? Let’s look at his three recent failures. The first was against the Packers with Brock Purdy sidelined. The second was the snow game in Buffalo. And the third was last week, BUT Jennings had nine targets and 131 air yards in a game where Purdy struggled mightily. We’re going with the larger body of work (the rest of Jennings’ season), which says he’s actually good at football AND the second-best receiving option on the team, behind only George Kittle.
Wide Receiver Sits Week 16
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
This one comes with a big asterisk: If Geno Smith can’t play, Sam Howell will strangle Metcalf’s fantasy production. You already know that Metcalf has struggled to put together anything more than just-barely-acceptable fantasy scores. The main reason is poor offensive line play, causing Seattle to prioritize quicker-developing routes, which steers directly away from D.K.’s skill set. Sam Howell‘s superpower at QB is getting sacked, and that’s even if he enjoys good offensive line play. Seattle’s poor line plus Minnesota’s strong pass rush is a recipe for utter disaster if Geno can’t play in Week 16.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
Here’s another WR we must avoid solely because of a QB change. Jameis Winston can have some awful games, but at least he’s going to throw the ball downfield a lot, sometimes even to his own players. But with the announced QB change from Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, there is no floor that’s too low for the Cleveland passing game. DTR, as we’ll call him for the sake of brevity, has played four games with 24+ pass attempts; he has yet to crack 200 yards passing. There’s just no way you can play a WR in a fantasy playoff game under those circumstances.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
If you drafted MHJ, your frustration level is already higher than the draft pick you used to get him, which was undoubtedly very high. It’s always tempting to “start your studs,” but MHJ has in no way, shape, or form earned this level of deference in your lineup. Kyler Murray is not playing well, and Carolina has actually been fairly stingy to opposing WRs, so there’s just no reason other than sheer stubbornness to keep jamming MHJ in your lineup if you have a decent alternative.
Tight End Starts Week 16
Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars
I would have made Strange my top recommendation last week if this article had been written after we knew that Evan Engram was going to Injured Reserve. Volume matters, and Strange rode 12 targets to check in as the TE2 overall last week. Expect the Jaguars’ passing attack to continue to flow through Strange and Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 16. Additionally, the Raiders’ defense struggles so badly against TEs that even Kyle Pitts earned some fantasy points against them this past week. Strange days indeed.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
Here’s your TE Hail Mary play of the week. Okonkwo earned 10 targets last week, and this week his QB upgrades to Mason Rudolph. He also faces a Colts defense that struggles to contain TEs. If you’ve got a solid TE starter, then you don’t want to gamble on this sort of situation. But if you are staring at nothing but ugly choices, grabbing “Chig” off the waiver wire could be your best hope of a solid game.
Tight End Sits Week 16
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Please see Jerry Jeudy (above) for the full pretzel logic here, but there’s one additional factor. Njoku, if he plays at all, is coming off of a hamstring injury. These are the kinds of risks that we want to avoid with money and/or bragging rights on the line.
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
Please ignore this advice if Aidan O’Connell returns as the Raiders’ starting quarterback this week. But if we are treated to another week of Desmond Ridder as the starting QB, you simply cannot start Brock despite his amazing performance this year. If you require further convincing, just re-watch the disaster that was the Raiders’ passing offense this past Monday night.
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