Unlocking the potential of weekly player volatility in fantasy football gives gamers a competitive edge. A key metric on PlayerProfiler.com, Weekly Volatility measures a player’s week-to-week fantasy point scoring oscillation. This metric can be found under a player’s game log on the right side of his profile. Using matchup and usage data combined with advanced stats, metrics and analytics to pinpoint the best matchups yields the best ROI from volatile players. With season-long leagues winding down, the focus of this article will shift to using this metric to help identify high-upside, low-owned wide receivers to deploy in GPPs.
Weekly Volatility GPP Primer
Volatility metrics play an important role in distinguishing between wide receiver archetypes and provide valuable information regarding each player’s potential. For the purpose of this article, the focus will be on the boom-or-bust, week winner archetypes playable on the DraftKings featured slate. These high-ceiling, low-floor players scare off the masses due to their fantasy scoring fluctuation, making them perfect GPP plays. Savvy gamers gain an edge by finding the player with the right mix of high volatility and low ownership percentage.
John Ross looks to rekindle his early-season fire
One intriguing play stands out among the volatile field-stretchers this week: John Ross ($4,400). He hasn’t played since suffering a Week 4 shoulder injury that landed him on injured reserve, but the Bengals activated him on Tuesday and coach Zac Taylor expects him to play against Cleveland. Casual gamers won’t touch him coming off an injury, but he’s priced for optimal roster construction and possesses lid-lifting, 100th-percentile speed in the form of a 4.22 40-yard dash. Albeit a four-game sample, Ross’ 14.8 Weekly Volatility ranks the fourth-highest among wide receivers.
John Ross Advanced Stats & Metrics Profie
With Andy Dalton back under center, Ross returns to an ideal situation. After getting benched earlier this season and in what is most likely his last season with the team, Dalton’s got nothing to lose. He and Ross hooked up for 328 yards and three touchdowns in the first four games of the season. Ross averaged 20.5 yards per reception, which would rank first over the course of the season. Two of Dalton’s three 300-plus passing yard performances this season came with Ross in the lineup.
Ross should not see any restrictions in playing time upon his return due to the nature of his chest injury. Of course, there’s always a chance the team will limit him, but all signs point to Ross playing a full complement of snaps. The matchup against Cleveland won’t be a cakewalk, but with his speed, all he needs is one play. The Browns rank No. 11 in pass defense DVOA and hold opposing receivers to an average of 32.51 DraftKings points per game. For perspective, the Bucs allow the most DK points per game (46.87).
Don’t deny Diggs in a winnable matchup
An 11.8 Weekly Volatility score puts Stefon Diggs ($7,600) at No. 8 among qualified wide receivers. He busted in primetime on Monday Night Football, catching four passes for 25 yards and scoring 9.2 DraftKings points. Diggs hasn’t recorded a boom week since before Minnesota’s bye in Week 12. Adam Thielen continues to rehab a hamstring injury and his status for Sunday is trending down. Detroit’s defense ranks among the bottom five in total yards allowed (4,777), and total yards allowed per game (398.1, fourth-most).
Check out Stefon Diggs on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
The Lions also yield the seventh-most DK points per game to receivers (39.11). Diggs’ individual matchup figures to be tougher, however, with him facing off against cornerback Darius Slay. Slay has a +37.7 (No. 11) Coverage Rating, he’s only allowed two touchdowns and his nine pass breakups rank ninth. Without Thielen, Diggs should see high volume. It’s a beatable spot, but one with enough risk to make him a solid, low-owned play.
Robby A all day
Robby Anderson‘s price ($5,100) doesn’t reflect his recent spike in production. Facing the weakest defense in the league, his price still ranks below his high point this year ($5,500). Anderson ranks among the most volatile WRs over the past two seasons. His Weekly Volatility marks of 8.2 in 2017 and 9.1 in 2018 ranked No. 19 and No. 11, respectively. Before his quarterback nightmare ended, Anderson struggled this season. He has since returned to form with Sam Darnold playing at a high level. Yet, based on Rotogrinders’ ownership projections, he’s being passed over this week. If, by the grace of the fantasy gods, his ownership stays low, he’s a dream play in a crushable matchup against the Dolphins. Miami ranks last in defensive efficiency.
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There’s nothing to overthink here. Anderson posted 18.6 and 20.1 DraftKings points the past two weeks against similarly weak Cincinnati and Oakland. He’s also scored twice in the past four games and averaged an 86.4-percent snap share during that span. No stranger to the boom/bust life, Anderson’s 7.2 (No. 46) Weekly Volatility score reflects his early-season struggles. A testament to his field-stretching ability, his 15.3 Average Target Distance ranks sixth.
Rising Fitzmagic elevates Albert Wilson
Tied to the timeless Ryan Fitzpatrick, diminutive speedster Albert Wilson ($4,000) has averaged six targets per game over his past three games. While he’s disappointed this season, it’s only a matter of time before Fitzpatrick’s renaissance rubs off on Wilson in the form of a long touchdown. He’s worth considering this week at his bargain price.
Fitzpatrick’s 37.0-percent (No. 17) Deep Ball Completion Percentage dropped significantly from his time in Tampa Bay last season due to a weaker supporting cast and penetrable offensive line. He still completed 51.5-percent of his deep throws in 2018 and his 6.2 air yards per attempt led the NFL. Further, his 8.3 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt ranked third. Dude can get the job done down the field in an efficient manner. Wilson’s 4.43 speed makes him the best candidate to haul in a long strike from Fitzpatrick.
