Week 13 wasn’t our best, with only 50-percent of our calls producing quality performances. While Lamar Jackson, Leonard Fournette, Davante Adams and Travis Kelce scored among the top-12 at their positions, Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Chark and Zach Ertz fell short of expectations. To be fair, Ertz was battling through injury, but we vow to be better in Week 14. Speaking of Week 14, we have 10 more lock-button players primed for success. These players should be in your lineups based on usage, opportunity, matchups, advanced stats and metrics. Let’s assume PPR scoring with four points per passing touchdown.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans
Matchup: Broncos
The Broncos have been among the toughest defenses on opposing quarterbacks this season, but Deshaun Watson just scored 21.9 (QB9) fantasy points against New England’s stifling defense. He has a full complement of healthy weapons and will once again be at home. Both Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes have equally difficult road matchups and cost considerably more as the QB1 and QB2 on both DFS platforms. Watson, on the other hand, is priced at just $6,500 (QB7) on DraftKings and $7,700 (QB11) on FanDuel, making him an easy lock-button play. Stack him with Will Fuller in tournaments.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
Matchup: Raiders
Two weeks ago, we declared it officially Derrick Henry season and he hasn’t disappointed. Henry has four-straight weeks of top-four finishes with 631 total yards and seven touchdowns over that span. He became just the fifth running back in NFL history to rush for at least 145 yards and a touchdown in three consecutive games. He will look to become the first to do it in four straight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NsWqZJBFA8&t
Henry is top-three in carries, rushing yards and total touchdowns. He leads the NFL in Yards Created and is fourth in Breakaway Runs. Henry is eighth in Juke Rate and sixth in Evaded Tackles. The Titans are 2.5-point favorites against the Raiders, who have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to running backs. Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon and Le’Veon Bell have all had top-10 performances against the Raiders over the last four weeks. Henry is a lock to add to that list.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons
Matchup: Panthers
Devonta Freeman hasn’t exactly been the most efficient running back this season, but all of the stars are aligned for him to have a good Week 14. The bellcow usage is there, he had 21 touches and played 67-percent of the snaps in his return from injury in Week 13. He has seen 17 targets over his last three games and ranks 13th among running backs in targets and receiving yards, ranking ninth in receptions. This game has the third-highest over/under with the Falcons three-point favorites at home. The Panthers have allowed the third-most rushing yards and the second-most fantasy points to running backs. His price of $5,400 (RB26) on DraftKings and $6,000 (RB33) on FanDuel makes him a very appealing play.
D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers
Matchup: Falcons
It was three weeks ago that we touted D.J. Moore as the lock-button wide receiver play of the week against the Falcons. He caught eight passes for 95 yards in that game despite Kyle Allen throwing four interceptions. Well here we are again, the Panthers and Falcons will have a rematch of their Week 11 matchup and Moore is again set up for a big day. Moore has been among the most consistent wide receivers since his slow first month of the season. He has caught at least six passes and scored as a top-20 wide receiver in seven of his last eight contests. He is top-five among receivers in targets, receptions and receiving yards, ranking 10th in fantasy points per game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ4sbNIjjKM&t
The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most passing yards and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. This game has the third highest over/under of Week 14 so the Panthers should score more than the three points they were able to muster in Week 11. Moore is priced as the WR20 at $7,100 on FanDuel and the WR11 at $7,000 on DraftKings.
DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins
Matchup: Jets
If there was any remaining doubt that DeVante Parker was a reliable fantasy play, it evaporated after his Week 13 performance. Parker beat up on the Eagles secondary, catching seven of his 10 targets for 159 yards and two touchdowns. He finished the week as the top scoring wide receiver. Parker has scored among the top-31 in nine straight games and in the top-10 in two of the last three. He has received double-digit targets in each of the last four weeks and has seen a Target Share of at least 22-percent in all but one game since Week 6.
Check out DeVante Parker on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Since Ryan Fitzpatrick took back the starting job in Week 7, Parker is third among wide receivers in fantasy points per game. Parker is fifth in Deep Targets, ninth in Target Distance and seventh among wide receivers in total touchdowns. He is top-10 in both Target Premium and Dominator Rating. Parker is eighth in Contested Catch Rate, a skill he showed off with multiple highlight reel grabs against the Eagles. The Jets have allowed the sixth-most touchdowns to wide receivers and 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Parker scored 15.7 fantasy points against them in Week 9.
Jack Doyle, TE, Colts
Matchup: Buccaneers
Jack Doyle is certainly not the sexiest option on the slate, but with the injury-depleted weaponry in Indianapolis, his floor is as sturdy as they come. With Eric Ebron on injured reserve and T.Y. Hilton nursing a calf injury, Doyle saw a season-high 11 targets in Week 13 and played on 94-percent of the snaps, also a season-high. He ran 34 routes, second-most among tight ends. The result was six receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown to finish as the TE2. Week 14 presents a matchup against the Buccaneers, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Doyle is the TE9 on both platforms at $4,600 on DraftKings and $6,300 on FanDuel.
Other Locks:
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens at Bills: An every week lock button no matter the matchup.
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles vs Giants: Sanders has played between 84 and 87-percent of the snaps over the last three weeks without Jordan Howard. He has taken 73-percent of the running back carries and 100-percent of the backfield targets over that span.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos at Texans: Sutton showed us he is quarterback-proof by finishing as the WR6 in Drew Lock’s first start. He will look to repeat that performance against a Texans defense that has allowed 36.9 fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
George Kittle, TE, 49ers at Saints: The Saints have allowed Jaeden Graham, Greg Olsen and Cameron Brate to finish among the top-eight tight ends over the last three weeks.
