Fourteen weeks into the NFL season, DFS grinders now have a significant data sample to examine ahead of each week. Looking to Week 15, advanced stats and metrics point to a few distinct edges we can exploit in this slate of games. Here are a few value plays and GPP targets for the DraftKings’ Week 15 Main Slate.
Jameis Winston ($6,900) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Interceptions aside, Jameis Winston continues to play a valuable role at the quarterback position for fantasy football. With Tampa Bay leading the NFL in overall pass attempts, his 86 deep balls also pace the league. While he also leads the league with 54 Danger Plays, he brings a deceptive rushing floor. He ranks sixth in carries (53) and seventh in rushing yards (225). With immense volume and low-key rushing prowess, he deserve GPP consideration every week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpqBYTE_V2A
Winston draws a strong Week 15 matchup against the Detroit Lions. On a per game basis, Detroit ranks 30th in passing yards allowed (276.5). Two weeks ago, this Detroit defense even allowed Mitchell Trubisky to pass for 338 yards. With a total set at 46 points and a strong matchup in his favor, Winston is a strong quarterback to target in Week 15.
Chris Carson ($7,500) – Seattle Seahawks
The primary beneficiary of Rashaad Penny‘s torn ACL, Chris Carson stepped back into his feature-back role in Seattle. No stranger to a voluminous workload, Carson averaged 19.9 carries and 3.4 target per game in Seattle’s first eight weeks. He also showed solid efficiency, forcing 77 (No. 3 among qualified running backs) missed tackles, equating to a 27.4-percent (No. 13) Juke Rate.
Check out Chris Carson on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Looking to Week 15, Carson faces a weak Carolina run defense. The Panthers rank 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (139.2). In their last two games, Carolina allowed Derrius Guice, Adrian Peterson and Devonta Freeman to record 129, 99 and 84 rushing yards, respectively.
Todd Gurley ($6,000) – Los Angeles Rams
Seemingly over his mysterious arthritic knee condition, the Rams decided to turn Todd Gurley into their bell-cow in recent weeks. He has handled at least 20 touches in each of the last two games, while averaging 79-percent of the team’s snaps since their bye. He also displayed increased efficiency with 14 missed tackles forced in the last two weeks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeCSbuiuhrk
This week, Gurley draws a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys as one-point favorites. The Cowboys remain a middling matchup, but they allowed over 100 yards rushing to the Bills and Bears in back-to-back weeks. With Gurley finally seeing bankable volume, he remains a strong play at $6,000.
Tyreek Hill ($7,500) – Kansas City Chiefs
Quiet of late, Tyreek Hill looks likely to come in lowered owned than DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Godwin this week. Still playing a major role in the Chiefs offense, Hill owns 41-percent of Kansas City’s Air Yards and 22-percent of their targets. Hill also stands out from an efficiency perspective. His 2.13 Target Separation mark ranks No. 4, and his 116.0 QB Rating When Targeted ranks No. 10.
This week, Hill faces a tough matchup against the Denver Broncos. However, the Broncos have shown vulnerability to elite wide receivers in the past. Last week, DeAndre Hopkins notched seven catches for 120 yards and a score in this matchup. With a 19-target game only a few weeks ago, Hill remains a strong GPP play.
Deebo Samuel ($5,800) – San Francisco
Battling A.J. Brown for 2019’s top rookie receiver, Deebo Samuel stands out as a strong tournament play this week. Used in dynamic ways in San Francisco, Samuel saw eight targets and a pair of rushing attempts last week. From an efficiency perspective, Samuel owns a 1.91 (No. 8) Target Separation mark, creating easy pitch-and-catch opportunities for Jimmy Garoppolo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nog1ZAZT7zY
Samuel faces a weak Atlanta Falcons secondary this week. In particular, he projects to face Isaiah Oliver on a majority of his routes. So far this season, Oliver has allowed 789 receiving yards in his coverage. With this game total set at 48-points, Samuel provides a solid access point to this potential shootout.
Justin Watson ($3,700) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A potential bargain bin stacking option with Jameis Winston, Justin Watson may be the primary beneficiary of Mike Evans‘ season-ending hamstring injury. After Evans played only 23.4-percent of Tampa Bay’s snaps, Watson recorded a 55-percent Snap Share. On his increased playing time, he notched five catches for 59 yards and a score on eight targets. He also received three red zone targets, increasing his touchdown equity.
Justin Watson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Watson next faces a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 30th in passing yards allowed per game (276.5). This defense allowed Mitchell Trubisky to throw for 338 yards on Thanksgiving two weeks ago. With Winston providing far more upside, Watson is a potential GPP dart throw just above minimum price.
Hunter Henry ($5,200) – Los Angeles Chargers
Hunter Henry has been quiet, with only seven total targets in his last two games. Despite the drop in production, he ran at least 18 routes in each of those games. Playing 31.3-percent of his snaps in the slot, he creates major mismatches for opposing defenses. Looking at efficiency metrics, Henry’s +23.3-percent Target Premium ranks third among qualified tight ends.
This week, Henry draws a tantalizing matchup against a weak Minnesota defense. On the year, the Vikings have allowed the fifth-most receptions to enemy tight ends (79). Unlike previous years Minnesota actually presents a middling matchup for opposing offenses. However, with tight ends doing much of the damage, Henry remains a strong mid-priced GPP option.
