Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 5

by Edward DeLauter · Value Plays

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score. The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each players Value Score so as to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on Draft Kings.

Again, we will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards Value Plays priced at $5,500 or below on Draft Kings.

(Sorry for the delay this week. Was without electricity for parts of the past two days which wouldn’t have been so bad if this was the 18th Century. Unfortunately, this is the year 2020, but rejoice, we have Air Yards data)

PAYING UP

Calvin Ridley – DK: $7,500

Air Yards Value Score: 100

Air Yards: 640 (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 38.0-percent (No. 9)
Unrealized Air Yards: 362 (No. 2)

The reality that the second highest priced receiver on the slate is a value is testament to Calvin Ridley‘s production this season. Averaging over 20.1 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Game, Ridley leads the entire league in Air Yards with over 120 more than than the receiver who is second on the list. Additionally, Ridley is also near the top of the league in Unrealized Air Yards, meaning that he should have even more production. Coming off a Week 4 goose egg, recency bias may contribute to fewer rostering Ridley across the platform. Don’t fall for this trap.

Marquise Brown – DK: $6,300

Air Yards Value Score: 97.32

Air Yards: 456 (No. 7)
Air Yards Share: 43.6-percent (No. 3)
Unrealized Air Yards: 271 (No. 4)

Marquise Brown enters Week 5 with a 17.5 (No. 1) Average Target Distance mark and 12 (No. 2) Deep Targets. With an ADOT this high, variance is bound to happen.

Brown has failed to haul in the deep ball to this point, averaging only 10.0 (No. 55) Fantasy Points per Game with 271 (No. 4) Unrealized Air Yards. This is bound to change as long as Brown continues to see this opportunity. Look for him to make a Week 5 splash against Bengals.

TOP-10 VALUE PLAYS

No. 10) Christian Kirk – DK: $4,700

Air Yards Value Score: 49.55

Air Yards: 236 (No. 40)
Air Yards Share: 32.0-percent (No. 15)
Unrealized Air Yards: 169 (No. 20)

Christian Kirk returned from a groin strain in Week 4 and finished second among all Cardinals in Air Yards behind target hog DeAndre Hopkins. Kirk finishing first or second among the Cardinals receivers in Air Yards has been a repeated theme thus far this season with little fantasy success. The 10.9 (No. 44) fantasy points that he scored last week was his highest weekly output thus far this season. If Kirk doesn’t produce in a juicy Week 5 matchup against the Jets, he may have to look out for the surging Andy Isabella to eventually take his role.

No. 9) Chris Hogan – DK: $3,000

Air Yards Value Score: 54.84

Air Yards: 227 (No. 43)
Air Yards Share: 23.5-percent (No. 43)
Unrealized Air Yards: 163 (No. 21)

Speaking of the Jets, if you’re a Jets receiver that is projected to be active in Week 5  and your name isn’t Jamison Crowder or Braxton Berrios, you are minimum priced on DraftKings. Chris Hogan finds himself on the list in part for this reason. He is also on the list as a result of consistent usage in the Jets offense. Hogan has seen at least 50 Air Yards or more in each of the last three games. He even finished as the fantasy WR30 in Week 2 against the 49ers.

Check out Chris Hogan on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Hogan makes for a fine dart throw at minimum price. However, a more intriguing option who doesn’t score high on the Air Yards Value Index, since he was only active last week, is Jeff Smith. He out-snapped and outgained Hogan in Air Yards in Week 4 against the Broncos, and is also minimum price.

No. 8) Jerry Jeudy – DK: $5,400

Air Yards Value Score: 55.05

Air Yards: 357 (No. 18)
Air Yards Share: 27.0-percent (No. 34)
Unrealized Air Yards: 199 (No. 13)

Jerry Jeudy finally realized some Air Yards last week with a spectacular catch over Pierre Desir for a touchdown. However, the rookie is still adjusting to the NFL with 199 Unrealized Air Yards on the season. Set to be the Broncos primary receiver in Week 5 with Noah Fant listed as doubtful, Jeudy will look to exploit a Patriots defense without top corner Stephon Gilmore and hopefully realize even more Air Yards.

No. 7)  T.Y. Hilton – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 55.26

Air Yards: 277 (No. 30)
Air Yards Share: 31.7-percent (No. 17)
Unrealized Air Yards: 156 (No. 23)

T.Y. Hilton has yet to finish higher than WR51 on the week in fantasy points. While injuries to other members of the Colts receiving corps have funneled more Air Yards Hilton’s way, the veteran has failed to capitalize on the opportunity. Additionally, the Colts run-centric offense has lead to a precipitous decrease in the Air Yards going Hilton’s way. He has failed to clear over 50 Air Yards in each of the past two weeks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Px5dHtUIE9o

At this point, it is fair to say that Hilton’s days as a reliable fantasy scorer are well behind him despite the opportunity he is seeing.

No. 6) John Brown – DK: $4,800

Air Yards Value Score: 57.76

Air Yards: 333 (No. 22)
Air Yards Share: 27.0-percent (No. 34)
Unrealized Air Yards: 175 (No. 17)

John Brown disappointed in Week 4, posting only 8.2 fantasy points and drawing only 36 Air Yards. He previously lead the Bills in Air Yards ,but has now ceded that honor to Stefon Diggs. Brown will likely underperform as he continues to play through a calf injury. However, when he gets healthy, he should be in a prime position to smash with the opportunity he is receiving.

No. 5) Michael Gallup – DK: $5,400

Air Yards Value Score: 60.52

Air Yards: 406 (No. 13)
Air Yards Share: 26.1-percent (No. 37)
Unrealized Air Yards: 179 (No. 15)

The last time Michael Gallup made this list was in Week 3 when he helped win someone the Millie Maker. He was above the salary threshold last week, but is now priced below $5,500 on DraftKings after a dud Week 4 performance .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N0tAmYh4ZU

Gallup continues to be a focal point of the Cowboys offense, amassing 406 Air Yards on the season. He is now priced lower than CeeDee Lamb. With almost 150 more Air Yards than the precocious rookie, this makes him a great value.

No. 4) Tee Higgins – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 60.80

Air Yards: 345 (No. 20)
Air Yards Share: 28.0-percent (No. 31)
Unrealized Air Yards: 234 (No. 10)

Tee Higgins‘ precipitous climb up the Air Yards Value Index is a reflection of his increased role in the Bengals offense. Essentially from Week 3 on, he has significantly eaten into A.J. Green‘s opportunity despite being out-snapped by the former Pro Bowl wide receiver who is now dust.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YE9Ibp3zksM

Higgins has 131 more Air Yards than Green over the past two weeks. Unlike Green, has been productive with the opportunities he has seen this season, averaging 13.5 (No. 30) Fantasy Points per Game. Look for this trend to continue in Week 5.

No. 3) Damiere Byrd – DK: $3,00

Air Yards Value Score: 77.24

Air Yards: 253 (No. 36)
Air Yards Share: 29.7-percent (No. 26)
Unrealized Air Yards: 119 (No. 34)

Damiere Byrd saw 150 Air Yards last week from likes of Brian Hoyer and Jared Stidham. His Snap Share in the Patriots offense has continued to grow each week, seeing 100-percent of the snaps in Week 4 against the Chiefs. Byrd has also posted at least 13.0 fantasy points in the weeks that he has drawn more than 10 Air Yards. While that stat may be somewhat deceiving, his role in the Patriots offense is not. He makes for an intriguing stone cold minimum Week 5 dart throw.

No. 2) Darius Slayton – DK: $4,800

Air Yards Value Score: 84.2

Air Yards: 360 (No. 17)
Air Yards Share: 36.5-percent (No. 11)
Unrealized Air Yards: 150 (No. 25)

Darius Slayton is the number one wide receiver on a Giants offense that is struggling. However, with a Week 5 matchup against Dallas’ sieve-like defense, the Giants offense may not be struggling for much longer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMmCHsRtUwQ&ab_channel=ThePodfather

With 150 Unrealized Air Yards, Slayton has the potential to boom in Week 5 and makes for a great tournament stacking option.

No. 1) A.J. Green – DK: $4,800

Air Yards Value Score: 98.37

Air Yards: 483 (No. 3)
Air Yards Share: 31.7-percent (No. 17)
Unrealized Air Yards: 377 (No. 1)

A.J. Green‘s spot on the list is where someone would use the word “REDACTED” or something like that. He appears poised to be replaced on this list by Tee Higgins in the near future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBN9xu64iw4&ab_channel=ThePodfather

The ghost of A.J. Green should be nowhere near fantasy lineups.

Good luck to all in Week 5. May all your Air Yards be realized.