Why Does No One Care About Kyle Trask?

by Shervon Fakhimi · Dynasty Leagues

Everyone needs quarterbacks in dynasty superflex leagues. You can never have enough, yet you can hardly ever acquire them either. Luckily, I found the best value dynasty quarterback that you can get on the cheap. What if I told you that a quarterback who lit up the SEC got drafted to one of the best offenses in the NFL and a team whose starting quarterback has already planned an escape hatch from the organization? Sounds interesting, huh? Then allow me to ask another question: why does no one care about Kyle Trask in dynasty formats?

The Tom Brady Situation

Remember when Tom Brady (finally) retired? Well, what if I told you that was a ploy to move to Miami? It was reportedly a done deal that Brady was going to take his talents to South Beach alongside former New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton. This was until former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores sued the Miami Dolphins and the NFL for racism in hiring practices as well as alleging tanking at the behest of Dolphins owner Stephen Ross. With so much attention aimed at the franchise, the block became too hot for the Dolphins to pull off this seismic move.

Broadcasting

Negating the fact that Tom Brady tried to continue his football career elsewhere, Brady’s future in Tampa Bay is still cloudy. Reported friction between Brady and former Bucs head coach Bruce Arians led to Arians stepping down once Brady returned. Brady did return, but he did so with just one year left on his contract. After this season, Brady can do whatever he wants. If he wants to go to the Dolphins, no one can stop him. If he wants to retire and do something like, let’s say, broadcasting, he can do so. Wait, did I say something about broadcasting? Remember when he signed a record-breaking broadcasting deal with FOX that pays him $37.5 million a year?

The Facts

Look, Tom Brady has beaten time for many years now. It’s never wise to bet against him. He might have three hall of fame careers in one. If he wants to keep playing in Tampa Bay until he’s 50, he likely will have every chance to. But it’s factual that he not only had an exit plan before returning and a new career path (one more lucrative than his current job that doesn’t require him to get hit) already lined up for him. He can’t play forever, right? 

College Production

Working in Kyle Trask‘s favor, Tom Brady may not be long for Tampa Bay after this season. Working also in Trask’s favor is how well he played in college. Though Trask was a backup throughout his high school career, and began his career in Gainesville behind Felipe Franks, Trask balled in his two seasons as a starting quarterback. He isn’t mobile but is a stellar pocket passer. In two years as a starter, he racked up 7,224 yards and 68 touchdowns while throwing just 15 interceptions.

More Stats

Trask finished No. 5 in QBR among all Division I college quarterbacks in 2020 behind Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Matt Corral, and Zach Wilson. Only Mac Jones bested Trask in Expected Points Added. Trask also finished No. 9 yards per attempt average in 2020. Trask wasn’t as prolific in 2019, but he did finish No. 10 in the nation in QBR that year and played well enough to force Franks to transfer to Arkansas. It certainly helped Trask to play with future pros like Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney, Van Jefferson, and Dameon Pierce amongst others. However, production like that in the SEC is great no matter what.

Kyle Trask Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Trask played well enough to warrant a second-round selection by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Granted, it was the last pick of the second round, but that’s an important distinction from getting drafted in the third round. If you read my NFL Draft Losers article a month ago, you’d remember that the success rate of quarterbacks drafted in the third round even getting the chance to start is minuscule. 

Round Two Draft Capital Matters for Quarterbacks

Second-round picks are given more leeway. Since 2010, 11 quarterbacks have been drafted in the second round. Outside of Kyle Trask, only Christian Hackenberg failed to start at least ten games in their NFL career. Every second-round pick in that time has not only made at least ten career starts but has at least one season with at least ten starts. Some flame out spectacularly (Deshone Kizer and Jimmy Clausen), others have looked like franchise quarterbacks at some point in time (Derek Carr, Jalen Hurts, Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garoppolo, Geno Smith), and then there are those who toil in the middle (Brock Osweiler, Drew Lock). 

The Lesson

The point is second-round picks are at least given the chance at some point in their career to see what they have. Not only has Trask shown in college he has plenty of game to warrant a look if and when Brady retires, but it would also make financial sense for the Bucs to give him a shot. Trask is still on his rookie contract for two more years after the 2022 season. The best window a team has to compete for Super Bowls is while a good quarterback is on his rookie contract to allow the team to load up elsewhere while the quarterback’s salary is cheap. They know better than us how well Trask has performed in practice and developed.

Their plan, before Brady initially retired, was to hand Trask the reins in 2023. With Brady back and another year to groom Trask, they can follow their plan. With Tampa being title contenders again in 2022, it seems unlikely they will have the ammo to find one of the better quarterbacks in this upcoming class. When Brady leaves, it looks like Trask will be the guy.

Supporting Cast

It is far from a guarantee that Kyle Trask will be good if he gets to start. It will help Trask immensely that he’d walk into a loaded cast of skill players when that chance comes. 2023 marks the last year of Mike Evans‘ contract, but he will be at Trask’s disposal. He will be 30 then, but an extension seems more likely than Evans moving on from Tampa. Chris Godwin and Russell Gage both signed three-year contracts in 2022.

Chris Godwin Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Leonard Fournette did too, and the Bucs drafted Rachaad White in the third round. Tampa did lose offensive linemen but got more back in free agency and the draft. Tampa has finished in the top six in pass attempts since Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich arrived in 2019 and have averaged 662 pass attempts a year. Trask is and will be an unknown, but he would walk into an elite situation that could prop him into a legitimate fantasy quarterback sooner than later.

Conclusion

In a recent dynasty startup draft I did, I drafted Kyle Trask at the round 19-20 turn from the 12 spot. In a Patreon dynasty league with The Podfather and PlayerProfiler cohort Cody Carpentier, I didn’t even know Trask was a free agent for a month before I added him on waivers with a $1 bid. Trask’s dynasty value is dirt cheap. Perhaps things turn differently, but I’m of the belief that Brady leaves the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after this season and that Trask takes over after.

If that does indeed happen, Trask suddenly becomes the head of a highly effective and star-studded fantasy offense that has bred fantasy success for its quarterbacks over the years. The reward is much more worth the risk for the cost to acquire Trask, which would be a future third-round pick at most at the moment. Get ahead of your league and acquire a young future starting quarterback before they catch the scent.