2023 Breakout Finder: Post-Draft Fallers
The 2023 Breakout Finder is an effort to bridge the gap between analytics and prospect tape using only college football metrics. Brought to life by Russell Clay and Nate Liss, the app can be downloaded on Google Play and the Apple App Store. Every year, through PlayerProfiler analytics, the Breakout Finder releases ratings for running backs and wide receivers of the incoming rookie draft class. If you are seeking an explanation of how the Breakout Finder model works, and how you can leverage ratings and metrics from the app to help you in your drafts, you can check out this year’s Breakout Finder Guide.
In March, PlayerProfiler’s analytics team released an initial set of breakout ratings for the 2023 rookie class. However, after the NFL Draft, ratings were updated to reflect players’ draft capital. Draft Capital is one of the strongest predictors of success, as highlighted in our 2022 research article. Below are some of the most notable post-NFL-draft fallers of the 2023 class.
As mentioned in the guide, one must note that breakout ratings are produced independently of a player’s exact landing spot. For example, the team or situation a player gets drafted to has no effect on their rating. Rather, the model seeks to provide judgment on how likely a player is to succeed based on the metrics alone. The pick number where they are drafted is what determines draft capital and has caused the latest update. This is so you are not tied to speculation on variables relating to their NFL team.
WR Kayshon Boutte
Drafted to New England Patriots, Pick 6.10
After posting one of the most impressive beginnings to a college career by a receiver in recent history, Kayshon Boutte became a true freshman breakout at just 18 years old at LSU. He ranks in the 64th percentile at his position in college target share. Additionally, he posted elite numbers after the catch. It was because of those numbers that many projected Boutte to be a first-round draft pick. However, after undergoing two ankle surgeries and producing disappointing NFL Combine numbers that placed him No. 52 of 72 receivers in the class in Athleticism Score, Boutte fell out of Day 1 and all the way into the sixth round of the NFL Draft. This makes him the biggest faller of the 2023 Breakout Finder.
The Patriots were smart to take a chance on a high-upside pass-catching weapon as late as the sixth round. However, Boutte’s fantasy outlook changes from a true toss-up (previous breakout rating over 40) to a huge question mark. His breakout rating has fallen over 30 points in this new update. Boutte now barely ranks inside the top-20 of the class.
WR Trey Palmer
Drafted to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pick 6.14
The Nebraska product Trey Palmer posted was a speedster and a target hog in college. He ranked in the 95th percentile in college target share and 99th percentile in forty-yard dash time. Palmer’s versatility to play on special teams kept him relevant as a top-20 receiver in the class in Dynamic Score. This was a reason many had him projected to go as early as the third round in the NFL Draft.
Trey Palmer Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
However, a closer peek into his profile suggested a limited catch radius and first percentile Burst Score. This data suggested that Palmer was far from a complete athlete. As a result, he ranked No. 46 in his class in Athleticism Score and dropped him into the sixth round of the draft. This caused his stock to dip and cut his breakout rating in half. Palmer still ranks inside the top 20 in the class which is a couple of spots better than Boutte.
RB Kenny McIntosh
Drafted to Seattle Seahawks, Pick 7.20
Coming into the 2023 class with an unspectacular profile, the Georgia product Kenny McIntosh ranked No. 32 among 43 running backs of his class in Athleticism Score. He used a 55th percentile college yards per carry and 79th percentile college target share to stay relevant in the original draft of the Breakout Finder. However, after falling to the seventh round of the NFL Draft, McIntosh’s Breakout Rating has dropped to the near-irrelevant tier (under 5.0), making him the biggest post-draft faller of the 2023 rookie running back class.
Since Breakout Ratings don’t even take into account specific team situations, it is even worse news that he lands with a team that also rosters Kenneth Walker III and drafted rookie Zach Charbonnet. This likely puts McIntosh completely out of relevance in the 2023 fantasy season.
