2023 Breakout Finder: Post-Draft Risers
The 2023 Breakout Finder is an effort to bridge the gap between analytics and prospect tape using only college football metrics. Brought to life by Russell Clay and Nate Liss, the app can be downloaded on Google Play and the Apple App Store. Every year, through PlayerProfiler analytics, the Breakout Finder releases ratings for running backs and wide receivers of the incoming rookie draft class. If you are seeking an explanation of how the Breakout Finder model works, and how you can leverage ratings and metrics from the app to help you in your drafts, you can check out this year’s Breakout Finder Guide.
In March, PlayerProfiler’s analytics team released an initial set of breakout ratings for the 2023 rookie class. However, after the NFL Draft, these ratings were updated to reflect players’ draft capital. Draft capital is one of the strongest predictors of success. This is highlighted in our 2022 research article. Previously, we have reviewed the top post-NFL-draft fallers of the 2023 class. Here, we identified three players whose stock plummeted after the draft. Below are some of the most notable post-NFL-draft risers of the 2023 class. This piece highlights the four players with the biggest increase in breakout rating since draft capital updates.
As mentioned in the guide, one must note that breakout ratings are produced independently of a player’s exact landing spot. For example, the team or situation a player gets drafted to has no effect on their rating. Rather, the model seeks to provide judgment on how likely a player is to succeed based on the metrics alone. The pick number where they are drafted is what determines draft capital and has caused the latest update. This is so you are not tied to speculation on variables relating to their NFL team.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Drafted to Detroit Lions, Pick 1.12
Jahmyr Gibbs posted over 700 all-purpose yards as a pass-catching back as a freshman at Georgia Tech. His rise eventually led him to transfer to Alabama. However, Gibbs improved his resumé further. He ranks in the 93rd percentile of PlayerProfiler’s running back database in college target share. Additionally, Gibbs ranks 91st percentile in speed score. Already considered the clear second-best running back prospect of his class, many had him mocked in the late first round.
Jahmyr Gibbs Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
However, the Lions shocked the world when they reached on Gibbs for the No. 12 pick in the first round. This made him and Bijan Robinson the first duo of running backs to be drafted top-15 in the NFL Draft since 2017 (Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey). Elite draft capital like this made Gibbs the biggest positive mover of the 2023 Breakout Finder by rating. He joined Bijan Robinson in the “Over 75.0 rating” club. Gibbs will be the lead pass-catcher of a revamped backfield. This backfield will be without D’Andre Swift who was traded away. The Lions added David Montgomery in free agency.
WR Jonathan Mingo
Drafted to Carolina Panthers, Pick 2.08
The Ole Miss product Jonathan Mingo ranked in the 73rd percentile in college yards per reception. The problem is he was never an overwhelming alpha in his offense, consistently being outproduced by the former second-round pick Elijah Moore. Mingo’s NFL Combine, however, was impressive. It ranked him No. 2 in the class in athleticism score, good for top-20 all-time. That is likely what helped him get selected as the first wide receiver of the second round of the draft. This nearly doubled his previously underwhelming breakout rating score. With this boost, Mingo has snuck into the Breakout Finder’s top-10 wide receivers of the 2023 class.
He will join a diverse wide receiver room surrounding No. 1 overall draft pick Bryce Young. Might could see fantasy relevance as early as his rookie season.
WR Marvin Mims
Drafted to Denver Broncos, Pick 2.32
A Texas high school state record-holder in receiving yards in a career and in a season, Marvin Mims shined in three seasons at Oklahoma. Much like Mingo, however, he was not a consistent target hog. However, Mims was a threat to explode off the deep ball. Mims posted a mixed athletic profile ahead of the draft. He ran a 94th percentile 40-yard dash but was still just No. 47 out of 72 wide receivers in his class in athleticism score. However, a 94th percentile college yards per reception ranked him ahead of Mingo since the inception of 2023 breakout ratings. This number was boosted further after the Broncos made him a second-round draft pick. Mims’s path has quickly put him into the conversation of relevance in the NFL as his new breakout rating has him ranked inside the top three of the class.
It will be challenging for Mims to achieve greatness immediately. This is because he joins a crowded wide receiver room in Denver and will be linked to the wild card situation named Russell Wilson. However, Mims’s metrics suggest his potential for greatness is among the league’s best. This makes him a talent worth watching out for, particularly for Dynasty rosters.
RB Zach Charbonnet
Drafted to Seattle Seahawks, Pick 2.21
The Seattle Seahawks created a situation that has now been mentioned in both this article and our prior piece headlining the biggest fallers of the class. It all started when Seattle made Zach Charbonnet a second-round pick and the third overall running back off the draft board in 2023.
As a UCLA Bruin, Charbonnet showed off an impressive profile as a 6-0 back. He ranked in the 70th percentile in college dominator, 92nd percentile in college yards per carry, and 93rd percentile in college target share. He continued building on an impressive prospect profile when he ranked No. 6 among 43 running backs in his class in athleticism score. That resumé already had him ranked as a top-three running back of the class in the initial draft of 2023 Breakout Finder ratings. However, after adding on second-round draft capital to his name, Charbonnet firmly inserted himself into the “Over 50.0” breakout rating club. Because of this, he was the second-biggest riser of his class at the position.
Charbonnet’s rise has made him a fascinating dynasty asset for years to come. This is especially true in PPR leagues. However, it is of note that a great prospect profile could be capped in floor as he now joins a Seahawks backfield headlined by 2022 second-round draft pick Kenneth Walker III. Walker posted a near-50.0 breakout rating himself in this model just one year ago.
