With the 2024 fantasy football season quickly approaching, we must ensure our rankings and boards for our fantasy drafts. While continuously attempting mock drafts and scouring through popular fantasy rankings, I have come across five players I will be fading in the 2024 fantasy football season.
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Patrick Mahomes
Now, this take is not about Patrick Mahomes‘s ability on the field. He is undoubtedly the best QB in the league and just won Super Bowl 58 in 2024. However, Mahomes had his biggest fantasy regression since 2020, only posting 294.3 points, and finished as the QB8 in standard leagues. In 16 regular season games in 2023, Mahomes also set his career high in INTs with 14 and posted his lowest yards per attempt at 7.0 yards.
Regarding fantasy output, Mahomes isn’t as glamorous as he used to be just two years ago. Not only has his average depth of target gone down every year, but so has his passing proficiency. He posted his worst QBR (63.1) and passer rating (92.6) in his career in 2023. His WR core outside of Rashee Rice was abysmal in 2023, leading the league in drops with 44 in 2023. This offseason, the Chiefs added Marquise Brown, who last crossed the 1,000-yard mark in 2021 and 165-pound Xavier Worthy in the first round. Rice could also miss a chunk of time after recklessly driving this offseason, hitting multiple cars.
Mahomes is Sleeper’s QB3 and Underdog’s QB3 and has an ADP of 46.5. No matter what, Mahomes will produce, but the chances of him producing a 5,000-yard 40+ TD season with the current state of the Chiefs is unlikely. At his current value, there are other QBs like Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff that will produce similar, if not better results four to five rounds later.
Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon joining the Texans was a surprise for me this offseason. In 2023, Joe Mixon had another great year, running for 1,034 yards (No. 8) and 9 TDs on 4.0 ypc, and was the half-PPR RB5. However, the Bengals traded Mixon to the Texans for a 7th-round pick, and also given a 3-year extension.
My issue with Joe Mixon‘s potential production is the structure of the Texans offense. With rookie C.J. Stroud, they were a phenomenal passing team, having the No. 7 passing yards per game in 2023. However, the Texans threw the No. 2 least targets to RBs with only 71. Joe Mixon has historically thrived with an abundance of targets from Joe Burrow. Since 2022, Mixon has been targeted 139 times. The Texans are a team that targets WRs and TEs, and Mixon’s competition for targets only increased with the Stefon Diggs trade. The Texans also had the No. 8 worst rushing offense and primarily run inside-zone, a scheme that doesn’t favor Mixon’s open space ability.
Mixon will be 28 years old this season, which is the age RBs begin to decline. Additionally, with 2.51 yards after contact per attempt (41/50) and a breakaway percentage of 16.2 percent (35/50), he is not an exceptionally dominant RB anymore. As Underdog’s RB14 with an ADP of 61.4, he is an RB I look to avoid in 2024 fantasy football.
Drake London
London was one of the biggest winners of the 2024 offseason. Last year, he had a QB room that consisted of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, and the Falcons finished No. 32 in PFF team passing grade. But the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a 4-year deal (coming off an ACL tear) and drafted Michael Penix Jr 8th overall in the NFL Draft. If London caught 69 receptions for 905 yards and two TDs in 2023, imagine what he could do with Cousins/Penix.
But the difference in my opinion versus the public is where London is being drafted. He is currently Underdog’s WR10 with an ADP of 14.8 and Sleeper’s WR11. There are three criteria that all WRs need to produce a top 10 WR season in standard PPR leagues since 2021.
- Hit 1000+ yards
- Had 10+ TDs
- Had 100+ receptions
If we look in half-PPR leagues, the receiving yard and TD numbers need to increase even more. These trends favor high-volume WRs who are the clear No. 1 option on their roster. London is the definitive WR1. The other top wide receivers in Atlanta are Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore. But what about Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts?
If everything were to go right in London’s season, I think he could hit 1,100 yards and 10 TDs, which support his breakout. However, it’s hard to project WR stats within a new QB situation. Garrett Wilson had a top 10 WR ADP and finished as the WR26 in full PPR due to Rodgers’ Achilles injury. I believe London will break out, but not to the degree of a top 10 fantasy WR.
Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson is an almost un-draftable player in 2024 fantasy football. Since coming to Cleveland in a trade with the Texans, Watson has done nothing with the Browns. In 2022, after serving a 10-game suspension, he played in six games, and threw seven TDs to five INTs. He only played six games in 2023, throwing for 1,115 yards for seven TDs for four INTs (rushing for one TD) after having season-ending shoulder surgery in November.
Football fans who still believe in Watson are quick to point out that the Browns won five games with Watson as the starter. However, the Browns allowed three points or less to the Bengals, Titans, and Cardinals, and Watson only completed one pass against the Colts. Against the Ravens, Greg Newsome II scored on a pick-six. The Browns went on to win that game, and that interception score was the difference in the game. The Browns were even three times more productive with 39-year-old Joe Flacco.
Watson is a 28-year-old QB who is well past his prime. Since taking off a year in 2021, his throwing mechanics, athleticism, and rushing ability have all regressed. In two years, Warson has only posted one three TD game. Additionally, he’s posted zero games in which he threw for over 300 passing yards. Watson was also ranked No. 27 in passer rating (84.8) under guys like Tommy DeVito (89.2) and Easton Stick (85.7). Watson in a full season might be productive, but as Underdog’s QB20 with an ADP of 159.3, I would prefer many QBs ranked behind him.
Marquise Brown
I believe Marquise Brown is an overvalued player due to his perceived situation. In 2023, Brown had 51 receptions for 574 receiving yards and four TDs in 14 games with the Cardinals. This offseason, Brown signed a 1 year, 7-million dollar deal with the Chiefs.
There is a huge discrepancy between Brown’s ADP on Sleeper (78.2) and Underdog (53.1). This gap is due to the question of Brown’s potential production within the Chiefs’ offense. Brown will look forward to at least a few games without Rice, who will likely be suspended due to reckless driving. The Chiefs are also a prolific passing offense, as Patrick Mahomes has the most passing attempts and passing yards since 2019.
However, Brown is limited in fantasy upside and ability to separate. He only had a 31.5% win rate vs Man Coverage (No. 85) and a 41.6-percent win rate vs Zone coverage. And since 2021 (when he had a career-high 1,008 yards), his fantasy points per game have gone from 14.1 to 9.6. Brown and Xavier Worthy, a similar archetype player, will compete for the full-time slot/Z position as well, which will limit his potential schematic advantage for targets. Once Rice returns from his possible suspension, Brown will lose the appeal he currently has. When I’m drafting on Underdog, I’m avoiding using a near top 50 pick on Brown in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
For more articles from Alex Regan, click here – Wide Receiver Sleepers for the 2024 NFL Season (playerprofiler.com)
