The 2024 Fantasy Football season is upon us! There are many players to consider and much debate to be had about which players should be taken and where they should be drafted. In this article, Alexander Regan and Aditya Fuldeore debate – Who should you draft? Mike Evans or Nico Collins?
Mike Evans – Alexander Regan
Nico Collins and Mike Evans from 2023:
- Mike Evans – 79 receptions, 1,255 yards (No. 9), 13 TDs (T-No. 1), Half-PPR WR5, Full PPR WR7
- Nico Collins – 80 receptions, 1,297 yards (No. 8), 8 TDs (T-No. 8), Half PPR WR9, Full PPR WR12
- In 2024, Mike Evans is ranked Underdogs (half-PPR) WR17 with ADP of 23.7, and Nico Collins is similarly ranked as Underdog’s WR12 with ADP of 17.6.
Mike Evans and Nico Collins are in two different stages of their individual careers as we enter the 2024 Fantasy Football season. Evans, at 30 years old, is the definition of WR consistency in the NFL. He has 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons, finished every season playing 13 or more games, and has averaged 250.5 PPR points per season. Collins, at 25 years old, had his breakout year in 2023. He finished No. 2 in yards per route run (3.11) and was the primary target in the Texans offense with rookie C.J. Stroud.
The Offseason
This offseason, Evans signed a 2-year extension this offseason and re-unites with QB Baker Mayfield, who signed a 3-year deal. But for Collins, the Texans traded for Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, who will likely eat into his targets.
When I compare the two, I would rather draft Evans at his ADP in 2024. Not only has he been extremely consistent but continues to be underrated in fantasy rankings. Evans in 2023 had an average ADP of 76, and even with a new QB, became a top 10 fantasy WR. Evans has always proven to out-produce projections and be the top option in his offense
Though I am not concerned Collins won’t have another good season, I don’t think he’ll be as dominant statistically. The Texans WR core does have the most favorable WR strength of schedule, but he will be competing for targets against Dell, Diggs, Mixon, and Schultz. This pick depends on both wide receivers’ current value, and I believe Evans is more valuable and faces less competition for targets.
Nico Collins – Aditya Fuldeore
Nico Collins is the best option in the Texans offense after he scored 17.4 (No. 7) Fantasy Points per Game with career-highs in targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, and more in 2023. He put up a 27.3-percent (No. 14) Target Rate and 3.24 (No. 2) Yards per Route Run, on a 22.7-percent (No. 29) Target Share. He was extremely efficient, not only catching deeper targets but adding 549 (No. 6) yards after catch to extend plays.
Next to Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, Collins is the tall, athletic 25-year-old who just earned a 3-year/$72.75 million contract. The biggest questions to Collins’ stock are whether he can fend off the target competition. The Texans are profiling to be a pass-heavy offense for 2024, leaving plenty of targets to go around, and Collins projects to be the top option. After all, why can’t Collins work ahead of a small second-year receiver off a major leg injury and a veteran acquired at the end of his Age Apex?
Sure, Mike Evans is ole’ reliable with yet another 1,000-yard season last year. He has worse quarterback play in Tampa Bay than Collins in Houston, with an offense that passed less. Evans has three career fantasy seasons better than Collins’s 2023, all coming before 2020. Even with a higher Target Share last season, Evans had a worse fantasy PPG finish. Ultimately, who is the younger receiver with better quarterback play in a higher volume passing offense? Nico Collins.
