As we enter NFL training camp, 2024 fantasy football redraft ADPs are becoming more pronounced. As more and more teams are drafted, fantasy managers start to see the ranges in which players are going. While some players become targets based on fantasy managers’ evaluations of them, others become fades. Players to fade have a higher ADP compared to the ideal range to take them, and other players going after them are better selections. This list shows a few players I don’t necessarily dislike. They’re just going too high according to their FFPC ADP.
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Dalton Kincaid
Projecting top tight ends that produce and stay producing consistently is not the easiest task. The next guys to move up to the elite tier are Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid. Out of these, Kincaid is selected the latest in FFPC drafts. However, he is also missing the target domination and multi-level production the others are. He had the smallest Yards per Route Run, Target Share, and Target Rate of the three. He also operated out of the slot often. Kincaid’s Route Participation was also higher in games Dawson Knox missed but went back down in Knox’s return.
Kincaid’s target earning was more similar to Jake Ferguson and Kyle Pitts last season. However, Pitts is the better athlete, and Ferguson earned more red zone looks. Currently, with an FFPC ADP in the mid-twenties, you can wait one round to find a tight end. Take Mark Andrews in the same range or take Jaylen Waddle/Cooper Kupp with Evan Engram or Pitts a round or two later. While Kincaid is a good player who will have a share of an elite offense, he is not in the elite tier of tight ends yet for 2024 fantasy football drafts.
James Conner
Unprecedentedly averaging a career-high 5.0 yards per carry in his seventh season, James Conner has been a machine for the Cardinals. However, Conner is now 29-years-old. Additionally, he has missed eight games over the last two seasons. The Cardinals also just drafted Trey Benson in the third round. Benson has a good athletic profile and college production under his belt, making him more of a challenger to Conner’s touches than prior competition was.
There are few running backs of Conner’s age at the end of the age apex that continue production. Injuries tend to pile up while teams get younger running backs to carry larger workloads. Getting Benson is an indicator of that for the Cardinals. Currently, Conner has an FFPC ADP around pick 60. Younger backs slated for volume like Rhamondre Stevenson are going in his range. Young running backs with upside are also worth the swings over Conner, like Zamir White and Jonathon Brooks. Conner has been a good option at running back over the last couple of seasons. However, in 2024 fantasy football, it is time to move on and go for more upside swings in his range of backs.
Calvin Ridley
The new Titans wideout enters his sixth season at 29-years-old. Ridley missed all of 2022 due to a gambling suspension and returned to play for the Jaguars after playing for the Falcons for four seasons. In his one and only season as a Jaguar, Ridley saw high volume with 136 targets for 76 receptions and 1,016 yards. This conveyed into eight receiving touchdowns and a 13.5 (No. 27) fantasy points per game mark. While he saw opportunity from Trevor Lawrence, Ridley dropped six passes (tied for No. 15) and had 970 (No. 6) Unrealized Air Yards.
Ridley now goes to a generally low-volume offense with a second-year Will Levis. Though the Titans could become more pass-happy without Derrick Henry, Levis is still unproven, and Hopkins is the No. 1 WR. Ridley’s current FFPC ADP is around pick 70. This is several spots before Hopkins goes off the board, and Hopkins had a Target Share six percentage points higher than Ridley last season. Another No. 1 WR, Diontae Johnson, also goes below Ridley, but has a better chance for high volume on the Panthers. Fade Ridley as a No. 2 on a low-volume offense with an unproven QB.
George Pickens
Entering his third season, George Pickens may finally be the Steelers’ No. 1 wideout. Diontae Johnson is gone, and now Pickens is the most talent receiver of the remaining group. Though the former second-round pick has been geared up to become a starter-level fantasy receiver, his last season saw him in the fringe WR3/FLEX range. Pickens finished four games as a WR1 and 11 games outside the top-24 (not counting Week 18).
For 2024, it’s hard to say Pickens’ quarterback situation has improved much. Kenny Pickett is now swapped out for a Russell Wilson in his mid-thirties and a Justin Fields who has failed to make the strides he was expected to as a first-round pick. The Steelers were bottom-seven in pass plays per game last season and that is unlikely to change with new OC Arthur Smith. Pickens’ target competition is weak, but a slightly higher Target Share in a low passing offense won’t improve his WR36 finish from last season by much. He is currently being drafted around pick 50 in FFPC, as a top-25 WR. Guys like Amari Cooper and Tee Higgins going in Pickens’ range have better shots at more quality volume.
For more articles from Aditya Fuldeore, click here – Fantasy Football Stats – Targets per Route Run Leaders (playerprofiler.com)
