Fantasy Football season is upon us, and it’s never too early to talk 2024 Fantasy Football Strategy. In this series, Theo Gremminger will break down the options at every draft position. In this article, he details the options at pick No. 1 in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
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The Chalk
Christian McCaffrey is currently going off the board with the No. 1 overall pick on Underdog, FFPC, and NFFC. He is as chalky a pick as Justin Jefferson in 2023. McCaffrey has very few red flags except for his age (28 years old). Last season, he averaged 24.5 PPG and played in 16 games. He easily finished the season as the RB1 overall, lapping the entire field and finishing with 101 more PPR points than Breece Hall– the RB2 overall.
The San Francisco 49ers offense is loaded with talent and has stability at the QB position. Brock Purdy finished as QB6 overall last season. McCaffrey’s PPG averages have been staggering throughout his career. He has averaged 1.14 TDs per game in 27 regular season games as a member of the 49ers.
The Pivot
CeeDee Lamb finished 2023 as the WR1 overall with 23.7 PPG, nearly catching McCaffrey. Lamb led the NFL with 181 targets and 135 catches. He posted career highs of 12 TD receptions and 1,749 receiving yards. The Cowboys featured him early and often. He even excelled on manufactured rushing attempts, finishing No. 4 among all WRs with 113 yards. He could be in store for a Michael Thomas 2019-like target total in 2024.
The Dark Horse Candidates
Tyreek Hill is in the mix for WR1 overall like Lamb. We also enter the season with fewer question marks about Miami’s offense than Dallas’ (offensive line changes, RB question marks, etc.). Hill joined CMC, Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown as the NFL’s only 20 PPG + PPG PPR scorers.
Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall have been moving up draft boards and appear to be headed for the top 5 overall when the dust settles. Both players offer tantalizing upside and have the prerequisite two-way skills to offer the same sort of receiving production that CMC offers. Hall and Robinson will also greatly benefit from improved QB play and stability. For high volume and contrarian drafters, these two at the 1.01 can provide a unique build. These two could both be in play for the 2025 No. 1 overall pick.
The Final Decision
While being an ageist with the RB position in many situations has been a sharp move, fading CMC- especially this season- feels wrong. CMC played in 32 regular season games over the past two seasons. His athletic ability is exceptional, and he has shown zero signs of regression. The San Francisco 49ers lost the Super Bowl last season to Kansas City in overtime. There is a sense of a team with a chip on their shoulders, and Vegas has made them the Super Bowl Champion favorites heading into 2024. McCaffrey is the lynchpin of the entire offense. He provides your fantasy team with incredible spike-week ability. Including the playoffs, he scored 25 + PPR points nine times.
Structurally, CMC at the 1.01 also makes sense and provides your team incredible flexibility at the 2-3 turn. There are multiple WRs to pair with CMC as the start of a hero RB build. Robust RB is also in play to pair with CMC, with options like De’Von Achane, Derrick Henry, and Travis Etienne all being drafted in that range.
Even with the ascension of younger backs like Robinson, Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs, McCaffrey is still the overwhelming favorite to finish as the RB1 overall and the best bet to lead all skill position players in fantasy scoring.
For more from Theo Gremminger, check out this article – Best Handcuff RBs | Handcuff Running Back Rankings for 2024 (playerprofiler.com)
