We all know to hoard upside in the later rounds. Check out my last post touting Top Handcuffs and laugh at the commenters critiquing the prescient Chuba Hubbard call –> https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/top-6-must-draft-handcuff-rbs/.
This article shifts to the wide receiver position. We need upside receivers late, so here six wide receivers that ooze maximum upside in the later rounds.
6. Marvin Mims
Mims was a better college receiver in the Big 12 than Quentin Johnston (more yards, more reception, and a higher yards per reception through three seasons). He is the rare player with both 90th percentile Speed Score and Burst Score on PlayerProfier.com. He came out super young, and should have been a first round pick after posting two consecutive seasons with 20+ yards per reception.
Marvin Mims Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Denver appears rejuvenated with Sean Payton and a humbled Russell Wilson. Tim Patrick tore his Achilles, Courtland Sutton is a bust, and Jerry Jeudy‘s target separation has deteriorated (2.45 in 2021 to 1.49 in 2022).
Into this talent void steps Mims, who is set to start in 3-receiver sets right away and could lead all rookies in receiving yards in 2023, though he is somehow 100-1 on DraftKings to win Rookie of Year. Don’t listen to DraftKings. Marvin Mims is the best option in the final rounds of fantasy drafts.
5. Rashod Bateman & Zay Flowers
Rashod Bateman was a phenomenal college receiver. This is best evidenced by his 36-percent college target share, which is one of the highest for a Power 5 conference wide receiver in the history. His early-career injuries, route inventory and hands rival Keenan Allen, but Bateman runs a sub-4.5 40. He’s fast Keenan Allen.
Rashod Bateman Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Zay Flowers was also an excellent college receiver. Flowers actually posted a higher College Dominator Rating and a faster 40 time. Flowers has also consistently flashed in training camp and in preseason. Both receivers offer far more upside than Odell Beckham at this point in their respective careers.
Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers are also strategically important fantasy options because they are the only No. 1 wide receivers who are routinely drafted after their team’s quarterback. Value stacking is important, especially in best ball, and selecting Lamar Jackson in Round 4 or 5 and then locking in either Flowers or Bateman late is a clear path to victory in 2023.
4. Brandin Cooks
Brandin Cooks is the guy who put up a 1,700-yard season in college and six 1,000-yard seasons in the NFL. He’s both a field stretcher and a possession receiver.
Cooks has been blessed with great quarterback play for most of his career, but 2023 Dak Prescott may be the most prolific of all. The Cowboys have finished top-3 in Pace of Play on PlayerProfiler.com the last two seasons, and their offseason non-moves suggest the team is actually becoming more pass-centric.
This offseason has also been the first since 2020 that Dak Prescott has not been rehabbing his legs, hips, shoulder and elbow. 2020 also happens to be the year Prescott led all quarterbacks with a staggering 28-plus fantasy points per game in September and October.
Dallas now has no choice but to keep throwing. Mike McCarthy must keep the pass dials turn up because the NFC East is only getting more competitive as Philadelphia adds D’Andre Swift and New York adds Darren Waller. With surefire shootouts up and down the schedule, it is reasonable to project Brandin Cooks to set a personal bests in receiving yards and to deliver more spike weeks than wide receivers going rounds earlier in fantasy drafts.
3. Elijah Moore
Elijah Moore was a dominant wide receiver in the SEC where he posted an astounding 42-percent College Dominator Rating in his final year at Ole Miss. Recall that in the years prior, Moore commanded targets while sharing a field with A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf. Then, in this first year in New York, he posted a 42-percent Route Win Rate, which ranked No. 9 among qualified receivers. His Target Premium, which significantly factors out QB play, ranked No. 17 that year. Both his NFL and college datasets (featured in the Breakout Finder app) indicate Moore is good at football.
Wide receivers from Randy Moss to Larry Fitzgerald have endured lost NFL seasons due to personality conflicts and/or demoralizing quarterback play. The Browns traded a second-round pick for Moore, and he has consistently flashed big plays throughout training camp. Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson has avoided the tabloids and is teed up for a bounce back season in what suddenly projects to be one of the highest scoring divisions in football.
Amari Cooper Monthly Splits
Cleveland’s No. 1 WR role also in-play this season. Recall that Amari Cooper posted 37.2 total fantasy points in December, his only full month with Deshaun Watson. Elijah Moore is a smash at his 9th round ADP.
2. George Pickens
I’m not a film guy, but every football fan needs to see this –> George Pickens Highlights
Film and metrics like George Pickens. As a college receiver, his 18.5 Breakout Age is 96th percentile and his 1,323 air yards exceed both Drake London and Christian Watson in 2022.
Pickens’ Target Rate (targets per routes run) was disappointing, but there are reasons that go beyond standard rookie rawness. Pickens tore his ACL in 2021 and played only 24 games total in his college career. Based on glowing training camp reports, Pickens benefited more than any NFL receiver from a full and healthy offseason.
In spite of his historically small hands, Kenny Pickett is an asset to Pickens. During his 13 games played, Pickett actually ranked No. 1 in both Catchable Pass Rate Under Pressure and Deep Ball Catchable Pass Rate. Pickett’s progression will propel Pickens, as well as the Steelers AFC North schedule, which like the Browns, will fuel shootouts and fantasy points.
1. Skyy Moore
Skyy Moore was a dominant college receiver (44.8-percent dominator rating at Western Michigan) and the first non-Power 5 conference WR to declare for the NFL early since Davante Adams. Recall that Adams face-planted for two full seasons before breaking out in Year 3.
Moore is a close comp to both Golden Tate and Christian Kirk. Both took years to break out at the NFL level. Fortunately, Skyy Moore started his breakout during the NFL Playoffs when he commanded 7 targets against the Bengals in the AFC Championship game.
This summer, Skyy Moore has operated as Patrick Mahomes‘ volume slot receiver for the majority of training camp. Moore is taking over the JuJu Smith-Schuster role in Kansas City, which was good for 78 catches and close to 1000 yards in 2022. Add a couple touchdowns to his season stat line, and JuJu would have been a top-30 WR in fantasy last year.
Skyy Moore runs a 4.40 40 and is more explosive than JuJu in his prime. Moore is teed up to blow past 1,000 yards in a slot-plus role with massive weekly upside in the Chiefs high-octane offense.
