PlayerProfiler is home to award winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out. NFL teams have been active in free agency, shoring up rosters ahead of the coming 2024 season. Read on to see how the signings have affected dynasty fantasy football player values, and which players are dynasty sells.
Russell Wilson
The Russell Wilson situation in Denver is one of the most fascinating stories in football. Never before has a team traded such a large sum of assets to acquire a quarterback and then cut him simply because the head coach couldn’t stand him. This is not to mention the $85 million dead cap hit the Broncos will endure due to Wilson’s release. The team also seemingly don’t have a Plan B at quarterback unless they are able to trade up in the NFL Draft. Currently, the Denver Broncos starting quarterback is Jarrett Stidham. Yikes.
Now, Wilson heads to Pittsburgh. While he has been promised the starting quarterback job by Mike Tomlin, the Steelers also just traded for Justin Fields. Fields offers far more upside to the Steelers than Wilson at this stage in his career. Additionally, Wilson did not play great for the Broncos last season. He ranked No. 27 in Accuracy Rating, No. 27 in Deep Ball Completion Percentage, No. 21 in QBR, and No. 19 in Clean Pocket Accuracy Rating. To be fair, Wilson did rank No. 9 in True Passer Rating, but the low Yards Per Attempt (6.9 – No. 24 amongst quarterbacks) and the high wide receiver target separation (No. 3 in the NFL) make that passer rating less impressive.
Fields Take Over?
It’s not outside of the realm of possibility that Wilson plays poorly in Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin is an old school coach just like Payton. Even if Wilson plays every snap this season, the sell window has officially opened on Wilson. He’s 35 years old, and his play has been declining for a while. The easiest move to make is to sell Wilson and buy Fields. If the Steelers and Fields can work out a fair contract extension, it could be the very opportunity he needs to turn his career around.
Saquon Barkley
Before NFL Free Agency, my advice was to hold Saquon Barkley because there were few scenarios where he would lose value. Well, he officially lands with one of the sexier offenses in the NFL. Now it is time to sell him in dynasty. There are a few reasons why.
The number one reason to sell Barkley is Jalen Hurts’ reluctance to throw to his running backs. Last season with the Eagles, D’Andre Swift saw a career low in receptions with 39 and ranked No. 22 amongst running backs in targets. Any running back playing with Hurts is likely going to receive less targets, given Hurts’ elite rushing ability. If Barkley is going cash in on his projected value in dynasty, he is going to have to overcome low target volume.
Red Zone
Another reason to cash out on Barkley is Hurts’ utilization in the red zone. Last season, Hurts led all quarterbacks in carries, red zone carries, and rushing touchdowns. That was due in large part to the tush push. Even though Jason Kelce retired, I seriously doubt the Eagles are going to quit on the tush push. That is going to further limit Barkley’s red zone opportunities. Therefore, he is going to be relying on his elite rushing ability and breakaway run ability to score touchdowns.
Barkley also wasn’t very efficient last season. He ranked No. 51 amongst running backs in True Yards Per Carry. Some blame can be placed on the Giants’ unbelievably bad offensive line and the fact that starting quarterback Daniel Jones was hurt, but that is still startlingly low efficiency for a running back as talented as Barkley. The former No. 2 overall pick did rank No. 15 among running backs in Breakaway Run Rate and No. 8 amongst running backs in Breakaway Runs in 2023. There is no doubt Barkley is talented, but his ceiling is likely going to be limited in the Eagles offense given Hurts and the other options the Eagles have.
Derrick Henry
This evaluation depends on where your dynasty team is – rebuilding or win now. If a dynasty team is built to win now, there is no need to trade Derrick Henry for the return that is likely out there. However, if somehow Henry is on a dynasty team that needs to reboot, this is an opportunity to trade him away at the highest possible value for a 30-plus-year-old running back.
There were some signs Henry slowed down a little last season. For starters, his snap share was down significantly. He ranked No. 25 amongst running backs in total snap share despite playing in all 17 games. Somehow, Henry still ranked No. 1 among running backs in total carries with 280 (think about that for a second). Henry also ranked No. 41 in True Yards Per Carry.
Henry still ranked highly according to some other efficiency metrics, including Breakaway Run Rate (No. 8), Evaded Tackles (No. 9) and Breakaway Runs (No. 2), so there is likely some tread still on the tires. According to Keep Trade Cut, Henry is ranked as the RB18 in dynasty superflex formats and could net a mid-2nd round rookie pick.
Marquise Brown
Sometimes the best dynasty sells are the hardest trades to make. There is no doubt trading away Marquise Brown feels wrong after he signed with the Kansas City Chiefs, but now is the time to cash out on his current value. Brown slots in as the third option in the Kansas City offense behind Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Additionally, the Chiefs could very well draft another wide receiver in the first round in this year’s Draft.
Marquise Brown is probably an upgrade over MVS https://t.co/yG31UnMTSK pic.twitter.com/DujgL93S1g
— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) March 19, 2024
Brown is a receiver that will be turning 27 years old this season. He’s never finished higher than WR21 in fantasy points per game despite playing with the high-octane Baltimore Ravens offense and Lamar Jackson. Currently, Brown is ranked as the WR34, player No. 88 overall, according to Keep Trade Cut. Over his career, Brown has ranked as the WR37, on average, in fantasy points per game. My guess is someone will be willing to overpay for Brown thinking he is going to have a career year with the Chiefs. At the very least, a dynasty gamer should be able to acquire an early second round rookie pick plus.
Calvin Ridley
In a shocking turn of events, the Tennessee Titans signed Calvin Ridley to a four-year contract worth up to $92-million with $50 million guaranteed. This pairs Ridley with the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, and quarterback Will Levis. It’s an interesting group of offensive weapons, but doesn’t bode well for the receivers.
Last season (granted it was under a different coaching staff), Tennessee attempted the lowest amount of passes per game in the NFL (29.1), tying with the Baltimore Ravens. The addition of Pollard means the Titans are still going to run the football quite a bit as they now have two very capable running backs. Additionally, Hopkins looms in the shadows somehow. Last season, Hopkins earned 136 targets, and he is still the best wide receiver on the team. There is a world where the Titans trade Hopkins away and feature Ridley as their primary target, but it looks like they plan on surrounding their young quarterback with as much talent as they can in the short-term.
Currently, Ridley is valued as the WR40 on Keep Trade Cut and the No. 100 overall player in their dynasty superflex rankings. At that valuation, a dynasty gamer could likely net a mid-2nd round 2024 rookie pick, plus something extra. With the wide receivers available in the 2024 class, now is the perfect time to hit the reset button and cash out on Ridley before it is too late.
Jonnu Smith
In a world where Jake Ferguson ranked as the TE9, Taysom Hill ranked as TE7 and David Njoku as TE5 in total fantasy points, Jonnu Smith has never finished higher than TE13 in fantasy points per game. However, this is a brand new world we live in where Smith is now a Miami Dolphin. Is it possible that Smith delivers on the potential he has never really lived up to? Yes, I suppose. Is it likely? No.
Even after Smith won the heart of Arthur Smith in Atlanta, he still only ranked No. 20 among tight ends in targets and No. 20 in fantasy points per game. With the Dolphins, he is going to be in competition with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane for targets and opportunities. It goes without saying that those players are more dynamic than Smith. If there is any value to be had for Smith, now is the time to take what can be had. There isn’t a world where he enters a fantasy lineup even in tight end premium formats.
See Seth Diewold’s dynasty buys here: 8 Under the Radar Players to Buy in Dynasty Post-Free Agency
