The 2023 fantasy season is drawing to a close. Dynasty gamers are turning their attention to the offseason, which is prospecting season. It’s also time to make moves that shore up roster spots, including buying into assets that are values at each position. Below are seven early Dynasty Buys at the wide receiver position for 2024.
Marquise Brown
Marquise Brown is scheduled to be an Unrestricted Free Agent in 2024. This means we don’t really know where he will be playing football, but it is time to lean into the uncertainty. Brown is a player you want to buy in dynasty. He’s still just 26 years old, and he is a speed receiver that can win down the field, with a 4.32 40-yard Dash (99th-percentile).
Additionally, Brown’s 2023 should have been much better. He ranked No. 27 among wide receivers in Target Share (22.8-percent through 15 weeks), No. 14 in Air Yards (1,119), and No. 12 in Deep Targets. The problem was his Catchable Target Rate ranked No. 95 among wide receivers (56.4-percent).
According to the Expected Fantasy Points Per Game metric, Brown should have scored 16.5 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked him as the WR 19 in fantasy points per game. Currently, Brown ranks as the WR 41 on the year and the WR 50 in fantasy points per game.
George Pickens
While Pickens is going to be playing for the Pittsburgh Steelers (he’s not an Unrestricted Free Agent until 2026), he simply has too much talent. I’m willing to make a bet on that talent. Coming into the season, it was believed by most fantasy gamers that the Steelers had a promising, up and coming offense. Unfortunately, Kenny Pickett regressed and is now injured, and we all know who Mitchell Trubisky is.
Pickens has yet to turn 23 years old, and he ranks No. 23 in Air Yards, No. 20 in Unrealized Air Yards, No. 14 in Deep Targets, No. 28 in Yards after the Catch, and No. 23 in ADOT this season. His Yards Per Reception mark of 15.7 ranks No. 17 among wide receivers and his Catchable Target Rate of 70.2-percent ranks No. 52 among wide receivers. All of these metrics point to the fact that there is a lot of meat left on the bone when it comes to Pickens.
Pickens should have been better in 2023. This is evident in his Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: 13.7 fantasy points per game. Through 15 weeks of the NFL season, Pickens ranks as the WR35 and the WR45 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged 10.9 fantasy points per week. If there is someone souring on Pickens, I would take a chance that he turns it around in 2024.
Terry McLaurin
He’s probably not going to be as cheap as he would have been after that sensational Week 15 performance, but Terry McLaurin is another WR worth buying in preparation for 2024. On the season, McLaurin ranks as the WR30 and the WR36 in fantasy points per game. While the Commanders offense did air the ball out and played from behind in negative Game Scripts a lot, McLaurin didn’t necessarily always see the fruits of this situation.
Targets with at step or more of separation but an uncatchable pass:
Chris Olave – 16
Ja’Marr Chase – 13
Terry McLaurin – 11
Garrett Wilson – 10
Marquise Brown – 10
De’Andre Hopkins – 10
Chris Godwin – 10
DK Metcalf – 10
Keenan Allen – 10— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) November 30, 2023
McLaurin ranked No. 14 in Unrealized Air Yards and No. 17 in targets but was hampered with a 64.6-percent Catchable Target Rate which ranked No. 76 amongst wide receivers. My guess is the Commanders have a new QB next year as they pick near the top of the NFL Draft, and their new ownership group could look to land a new QB in a trade or in free agency. This can only help McLaurin’s prospects in 2024.
Additionally, according to our favorite statistic, Expected Fantasy Points Per Game, McLaurin ranked No. 26 among wide receivers at 15.4, which is a difference of about four fantasy points per game. Look for McLaurin to bounce back in 2024.
Garrett Wilson
It’s time to recommend buying Garrett Wilson. In the preseason, I warned fantasy gamers against drafting Wilson, especially in redraft leagues, where he was being taken in the first round ahead of players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Stefon Diggs. Now, while Wilson is still a very valuable Dynasty asset, the value has come down too much, and it hasn’t been Wilson’s fault in the slightest.
Wilson has yet to turn 24 years old and while he is the WR24 on the season, and the WR29 in fantasy points per game, he does rank highly in many of the metrics we like. Wilson ranks No. 5 in Air Yards, No. 5 in targets, No. 5 in Target Share, No. 5 in Deep Targets, and No. 3 in Unrealized Air Yards. The problem was and has always been quarterback play. Wilson’s Catchable Target Rate of 67.2-percent ranks him as the WR66 in that category.
Additionally, Wilson ranked as the No. 5 WR in Expected Fantasy Points per Game (21.3).
Placed up against his 13.0 fantasy points per game, Wilson should have scored 8.3 more fantasy points per game. That’s an extra touchdown catch per game. The Jets will likely have Aaron Rodgers in 2024. Rodgers will be a massive improvement, and ultimately will propel Wilson to be a top-10 WR in fantasy football.
Elijah Moore
It’s hard to believe Elijah Moore has yet to turn 24 years old. He has been in the NFL for three seasons now. While we still haven’t seen consistent fantasy production, Moore still profiles as a WR you should be interested in acquiring in 2024. Moore ranked No. 12 in Unrealized Air Yards and should have scored more fantasy points in 2023.
Unfortunately, Moore was hurt by a 62.6-percent Catchable Pass Rate, which ranked No. 83 among wide receivers. When acquiring Moore, you are banking, at least somewhat, on a Deshaun Watson resurgence, although that really wouldn’t take much. I’d say this is more of a bet on the talent of Moore and his ability to get open downfield. He also won’t cost nearly as much and has tremendous upside in the Browns’ offense.
Jakobi Meyers
This evaluation is different because Jakobi Meyers is actually having a pretty good season. He is currently WR26 on the season and WR25 in fantasy points per game. Even though the Raiders have had inconsistent quarterback play, Meyers has provided fantasy gamers value, considering where he was drafted. Yet the general public still seems to be fading Meyers. Currently on Keep/Trade/Cut, Meyers ranks as the WR46 overall and the No. 130 player overall in superflex formats.
This doesn’t make sense based on the production Meyers has put up this season. He also signed a three-year contract in the offseason that likely secured him a spot in the Raiders wide receiving corps until 2026. Meyers isn’t a sexy pick, but he has proven to be a productive player. Take advantage of a fantasy gamer looking to sell high and take Meyers as a nice depth piece on your roster for the next two to three seasons.
Drake London
Sometimes you have to take risks in order to get ahead. This is true in life and in Dynasty. A calculated risk fantasy gamers should take is trading for Drake London this offseason. This pick depends on a couple of factors. The Falcons MUST fire Arthur Smith. I think they will. Secondly, they MUST upgrade at quarterback.
If they do both of those things, fantasy gamers are going to like having Drake London on their Dynasty teams in 2024. While the metrics don’t look very promising, London has flashed that upside in Week 6 against Washington and in Week 14 against Tampa Bay. In both those weeks, he posted top-five WR numbers.
London is still not even 23 years old, and it’s not like he’s been given a fair shake in this offense.
Under a competent regime, London should flourish and be a dependable WR2 with top-12 wide receiver upside. Or, the Falcons could stick with Arthur Smith, and if they do, completely ignore what I just said.
Leverage the Dynasty Market
Obviously, situations change, players change teams, and, unfortunately, injuries happen even in the offseason. As of this writing, these wide receivers are players I believe in for 2024 as they are currently undervalued in the Dynasty market. Be on the lookout for more articles designed to help you improve your Dynasty teams. Best of luck to you in the fantasy playoffs! If you are out of the playoffs, here’s to helping you build a playoff team this offseason.
