In the few short weeks since the conclusion of Super Bowl 55, the NFL landscape has changed drastically, with many teams taking entirely new forms. PlayerProfiler is a one-stop shop for all major moves, power rankings, and honest expectations for all 32 NFL teams heading into the NFL Draft and training camp.
Glossary
Each team will be broken down as follows:
- -Overall Power Ranking and Tier – the team’s Power Ranking relative to all 32 NFL teams
- -Notable Additions – new additions that move the needle
- -Notable Losses – lost talent that matters
- -Summary
- -Expectation – the minimum we should expect in 2021 to consider the season a success
- -Expected Wins – based on a 17-game season
- -Fantasy Implication – a broad spectrum look into each team’s seasonal fantasy value
Indianapolis Colts
Overall Ranking and Tier: No. 9 (Above Average)
Notable Additions: QB Carson Wentz, Added three OL
Notable Losses: EDGE Justin Houston (may be re-signed), QB Philip Rivers, OC Nick Sirianni, DB Coach Jonathan Gannon
Summary
The Colts are an upper-tier franchise and annual playoff contender. Chris Ballard built his culture, promotes from within and grows this team through the draft. Boasting a fierce offensive line and well-groomed defense makes this team one quarterback away from a championship. Carson Wentz regaining his MVP-caliber form would be the missing link. On the other hand, his history of cataclysmic failure repeating itself would sink this team to the deepest pits of despair.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsV9MKla0pg
Regardless, the lack of aggressive offseason moves outside of the Wentz trade indicates that Ballard is not all-in for this year. Even average QB play would go a long way towards helping the Colts win the NFC South. They can lean on the defense and run game to bully their way to 10 wins, which projects to be enough to beat out the Titans.
Expectation: Win Division
Projected Wins: 9-12
Fantasy Implications: With no history of a true commitment to any one player as the “featured” weapon, I would focus on players that are available at good value in drafts. Putting faith in Jonathan Taylor’s talent to elevate him to a featured role is also an option to consider.
Tennessee Titans
Overall Ranking and Tier: No. 16 (Average, Upper)
Notable Additions: WR Josh Reynolds, DL Denico Autry, EDGE Bud Dupree, CB Janoris Jenkins, promoted OC/DC from within
Notable Losses: OC Arthur Smith, DC Dean Pees, WR Corey Davis, TE Jonnu Smith, S Kenny Vaccaro, CB Malcolm Butler , WR Adam Humphries, CB Adoree’ Jackson, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney
Summary
Tennessee’s top-end talent will continue to win games, but the offseason losses suggest their win total will regress back to around the 9-7 mark they finished with for four straight years (2016-2019) before last year’s 11-5 showing. A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry are studs, but the lack of depth will limit this offense’s versatility. Mike Vrabel never seems to get his defense right. Another year of turnover at key positions perpetuates this unit’s lack of identity and inconsistent weekly performance. Losing both offensive and defensive coordinators does further suppresses win expectations. However, replacing both from within indicates a strong team culture. Expect this team to be a fringe wild card team with a 9-8 record, potentially missing the playoffs.
Expectation: Compete For Division
Projected Wins: 7-9
Fantasy Implication: Henry and Brown are in line for monster workloads in 2021.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall Ranking and Tier: No.24 (Below Average)
Notable Additions: CB Shaquill Griffin, QB Trevor Lawrence (expected), WR Marvin Jones, DL Malcolm Brown , TE Chris Manhertz, WR Phillip Dorsett
Notable Losses: None
Summary
The Jaguars move up from No. 32 overall in 2020 to No. 24 with the projected addition of Trevor Lawrence alone. This ranking/breakdown assumes that he’s the caliber of player we’ve been promised.
The Jacksonville Jaguars still have $44 Million in Cap Space after yesterday’s moves ?
Will the Jaguars add another weapon on offense? pic.twitter.com/qM1ugovuUr
— RotoUnderworld (@rotounderworld) March 17, 2021
The abundance of free agent signings and roster turnover will limit wins in 2021. Teams need time to develop locker room chemistry and adapt to the new playbook and coaching staff. However, this franchise feels refreshed and the outlook is positive with Urban Meyer, a potential franchise QB and a solid handful of young playmakers. All significant contributors will return in 2021, with any free agent losses being irrelevant to the win total. Expect more turnover as 2021 chugs along and new players compete for starting roles on this roster. The future is bright in Jacksonville, yet expectations are low in the first year of a massive rebuild.
Expectation: Finish Near .500
Projected Wins: 7-9
Fantasy Implication: This offense will have juice with Lawrence under center. It will be hard to project player roles with so much offseason turnaround.
Houston Texans
Overall Ranking and Tier: No. 32 (Bottom of the Barrel)
Notable Additions: HC David Culley, DC Lovie Smith, added 25 new players through FA (and counting), CB Desmond King, OT Marcus Cannon
Notable Losses: QB Deshaun Watson? WR Will Fuller, EDGE J.J. Watt, C Nick Martin, OG Zach Fulton, LB Bernardrick McKinney
Summary
Few people will argue that the Texans are the league’s worst team heading into 2021 if Deshaun Watson misses games. This team is fresh off of a complete tear down and rebuild. The offseason moves indicate one thing, the goal is not to win games. 2021 is a tryout and culture-building year with over 20 players added during free agency. This was the right move to revamp player morale.
The 2020 locker room had clear toxicity given that both of Houston’s franchise players booked a one-way ticket out of town. General Manager Nick Caserio sent a message, he wants players who want to be in Houston. Current players will face open competition with new additions at every position group. Most free agents were brought in one short term “prove-it” deals. Caserio is looking to build a team, not a collection of employees. Houston is playing the long game at the expense of the immediate future. Should Watson play, add five wins to the projected win total.
Expectation: Tank
Projected Wins: 0-4
Fantasy Implication: Brandin Cooks will draw targets regardless of the quarterback situation. Otherwise, target players who can climb the depth chart in a tryout year, especially in Dynasty.
Conclusion
The AFC South highlights four team narratives that will be driven by QB play. Fans will get to enjoy a potential Carson Wentz redemption story, the rise of Trevor Lawrence, the legal battle of Deshaun Watson, and the journey back to Earth for Ryan Tannehill. A tough schedule with matchups against the talent-rich NFC West and improved AFC East will further suppress the win totals for all teams involved.
