This is the Air Yards DFS Value Index for Week 10! Apologies for the delay. Let’s get to it.
The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score.
Best Values
The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. The list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.
We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500. Then, our focus will shift to the top 10 Air Yards value plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.
Paying Up
Chris Olave – DK: $6,800
Air Yards Value Score: 100
Air Yards: 1,062 (No. 2 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 41.4-percent (No. 4)
Unrealized Air Yards: 560 (No. 1)
Chris Olave is two weeks removed from leading all NFL players in Air Yards and Air Yards Share. His dip in these categories is accompanied by his worst two-game stretch in fantasy production since the first two games of his career. Look for Olave to rebound against an exploitable Steelers secondary this week. He is a recommended play in all formats.
Amari Cooper – DK: $6,500
Air Yards Value Score: 80.89
Air Yards: 852 (No. 6)
Air Yards Share: 39.9-percent (No. 6)
Unrealized Air Yards: 391 (No. 12)
Amari Cooper returns from a bye week as the undisputed target hog on the Browns. He has topped 100 Air Yards in three of his past four games including a 126 Air Yards showing in Week 8 in which he finished as the WR7. Look for Cooper to continue his fantasy dominance against an exploitable Dolphins secondary this week.
Top-10 Value Plays
10) Adam Thielen – DK: $5,400
Air Yards Value Score: 44.64
Air Yards: 582 (No. 30)
Air Yards Share: 26.8-percent (No. 34)
Unrealized Air Yards: 240 (No. 40)
Adam Thielen saw 121 Air Yards last week yet finished as the WR30 posting only 9.7 fantasy points. Thielen has been surprisingly steady this season averaging 11.7 fantasy points per game scoring nine or more fantasy points in six of eight games. Sharing an offense with Justin Jefferson will always cap his ceiling and for that reason, Thielen is best deployed in cash lineups as a true value play.
9) Donovan Peoples-Jones – DK: $4,300
Air Yards Value Score: 47.50
Air Yards: 531 (No. 36)
Air Yards Share: 24.9-percent (No. 43)
Unrealized Air Yards: 183 (No. 58)
Donovan Peoples-Jones has seen at least 52 Air Yards in the past five games. With David Njoku likely out, he is the secondary target in the Browns’ passing attack. He has been consistently above average posting double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games. Deploy him in cash games this week against the Dolphins with the theory that things continue this way.
Donovan Peoples-Jones Advanced Stats & Metrics
8) Nico Collins – DK: $4,000
Air Yards Value Score: 48.21
Air Yards: 429 (No. 51)
Air Yards Share: 29.1-percent (No. 25)
Unrealized Air Yards: 193 (No. 56)
Nico Collins appears set to return this week after missing the past two games with a groin injury. He is essentially an arbitrage version of Brandin Cooks as Collins and Cooks each see roughly 72 Air Yards per game. Collins has a higher ADOT of 14.3 yards (no. 7), which makes him a slightly more volatile fantasy play. Regardless he should be utilized in cash games as a value-based play.
7) Josh Reynolds – DK: $4,600
Air Yards Value Score: 48.96
Air Yards: 548 (No. 33)
Air Yards Share: 26.6-percent (No. 35)
Unrealized Air Yards: 279 (No. 29)
Josh Reynolds returns from a bye and will likely continue to see opportunities as the Lions’ primary boundary receiver. His 13.0 ADOT typifies his boom/bust nature as a fantasy option. However, he should be sparsely owned after two consecutive games with less than four fantasy points. He is only three games removed from a WR9 finish and is a great value play in tournament lineups this week.
6) Alec Pierce – DK: $4,100
Air Yards Value Score: 50.13
Air Yards: 491 (No. 39)
Air Yards Share: 27.1-percent (No. 32)
Unrealized Air Yards: 170 (No. 60)
After seeing 106 Air Yards in week eight, Alec Pierce saw only seven Air Yards last week. With the Colts going full Ted Lasso with the hiring of interim head coach Jeff Saturday, it is anyone’s guess what this offense looks like moving forward. This uncertainty only adds to Pierce’s volatility and makes him a true desperation play this week.
5) George Pickens – DK: $5,000
Air Yards Value Score: 53.41
Air Yards: 659 (No. 21)
Air Yards Share: 26.2-percent (37)
Unrealized Air Yards: 370 (No. 16)
The stage is set for George Pickens to go nuclear. Despite coming off a dreaded doughnut in Week 8, Pickens is the quintessential post-bye week, rookie, breakout candidate. The runway to increased targets was cleared with the Steelers’ trade of Chase Claypool. Pickens’s average of 82.4 Air Yards per game is only going to increase with the anticipated increase in targets. He is a recommended play in all formats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mg1V6kSWvhM&ab_channel=PlayerProfilerFantasyFootballwithThePodfather
4) Mack Hollins – DK: $4,200
Air Yards Value Score: 54.06
Air Yards: 614 (No. 26)
Air Yards Share: 23.9-percent (No. 49)
Unrealized Air Yards: 292 (No. 28)
Mack Hollins role in the Raiders offense has become as certain as death and taxes. He remains the Raiders’ volatile downfield threat posting a 14.3 Average Target Distance (no. 8). He has seen at least 65 Air Yards the past two games and should continue to see plenty of opportunities this week especially if both Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller do not play.
3) Robbie Anderson – DK: $3,200
Air Yards Value Score: 58.23
Air Yards: 472 (No. 44)
Air Yards Share: 25.5-percent (No. 41)
Unrealized Air Yards: 338 (No. 19)
Robbie Anderson posted an 82-percent snap share last week, which is his highest snap share as a Cardinal by far. Despite this drastic increase in snap share, Anderson saw only 26 Air Yards. This is the least amount of Air Yards for his Cardinals career. Regardless, with his snap share increasing, and priced at only $200 above the minimum price, Anderson makes for a great dart throw play with the hopes that his opportunities and Air Yards increase as he continues learning the Cardinals playbook.
2) Darnell Mooney – DK: $5,500
Air Yards Value Score: 62.13
Air Yards: 612 (No. 27)
Air Yards Share: 36.1-percent (No. 14)
Unrealized Air Yards: 333 (No. 21)
Darnell Mooney is coming off his best fantasy week all season finishing as the WR13 on the week after posting seven receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown. Mooney remains the focal point of a resurgent Bears offense led by a supercharged Justin Fields. He is a recommended play in all formats and likely will be priced off of this list as early as next week because of his recent production.
Darnell Mooney Advanced Stats & Metrics
1) Marvin Jones – DK: $4,300
Air Yards Value Score: 66.94
Air Yards: 646 (No. 23)
Air Yards Share: 28.8-percent (No. 27)
Unrealized Air Yards: 412 (No. 9)
Marvin Jones rebounded in Week 9, finishing as the WR29 on the week posting 9.8 fantasy points. He remains the only starting Jaguars wide receiver with a double-digit average target distance of 13.7 (No. 12). Jones makes for a great contrarian tournament runback option with the Jaguars facing the Chiefs this week.
Good luck to everyone in Week 10. May all your Air Yards be realized.
