This is the Air Yards DFS Value Index for Week 15!
The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score.
Best Values
The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. The list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.
We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500. Then, our focus will shift to the top ten Air Yards value plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.
Paying Up
Chris Olave – DK: $6,500
Air Yards Value Score: 95.63
Air Yards: 1,417 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers)|
Air Yards Share: 40.3-percent (No. 5)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 707 (No. 3)|
Chris Olave returns to the main slate as the top Air Yards play! He has averaged just over 88 Air Yards and six targets across his past four games.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCuvqb3xHyg
However, he has parlayed this usage into only one top-24 WR finish. Look for him to bounce back against the Falcons’ secondary if he can avoid A.J. Terrell.
Davante Adams – DK: $9,000
Air Yards Value Score: 85.50
Air Yards: 1,699 (No. 1)|
Air Yards Share: 41.6-percent (No. 3)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 852 (No. 1)|
The notion that the highest-priced player on the slate is a value sounds absurd on the surface. However, Davante Adams has crested 119 Air Yards in five out of his past six games and is averaging almost 150 Air Yards during this same time frame. Additionally, he has seen double-digit targets in every game since Week 9. This has resulted in four finishes as the WR6 or better. Adams is coming off a game in which he “disappointed” with only 10.1 fantasy points. This week he can very easily do what Justin Jefferson did to the Patriots in Week 12 and finish as the WR1 in fantasy on the week.
Top-10 Value Plays
10) Michael Gallup – DK: $4,500
Air Yards Value Score: 45.11
Air Yards: 688 (No. 45)|
Air Yards Share: 27.1-percent (No. 36)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 438 (No. 27)|
Michael Gallup has seen at least one red zone target in three of his past four games while averaging slightly over 86 Air Yards a game. However, he has only mustered a top-24 wide receiver finish in one of these weeks despite heavy involvement in the Cowboys’ passing attack. Look for the things to balance out this week against an exploitable Jaguars secondary.
9) Jakobi Meyers – DK: $4,700
Air Yards Value Score: 46.09
Air Yards: 657 (No. 50)|
Air Yards Share: 30.3-percent (No. 24)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 224 (No. 72)|
Jakobi Meyers did not play last week as a result of a concussion. Prior to Week 14, he was pretty meh in the three weeks after the Patriots’ bye. However, he did miss time with injury in two of these three games. He leads the Patriots with a 22.0-percent target share (No. 31) on the season and will be a featured pass catcher in the offense if he clears concussion protocol this week and DeVante Parker does not. Jakobi Meyers in cash forever and always!
8) D.J. Chark – DK: $4,500
Air Yards Value Score: 50.10
Air Yards: 620 (No. 54)|
Air Yards Share: 33.4-percent (No. 16)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 377 (No. 37)|
The D.J. Chark party continued last week as Chark finished with 21.4 fantasy points after seeing seven targets and 76 Air Yards. He ran more routes (31) than both Josh Reynolds (23) and Jameson Williams (6) combined. Chark is locked in as the primary deep ball specialist in Detroit with a league-leading 16.8 average target distance. Get him in your tournament lineup again this week.
7) Marquise Brown – DK: $5,500
Air Yards Value Score: 53.73
Air Yards: 761 (No. 37)|
Air Yards Share: 35.7-percent (No. 11)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 366 (No. 42)|
Marquise Brown has seen eight targets per game since his return from a foot injury. He has also averaged 86 Air Yards per game. With Kyler Murray now out for the season after a brutal ACL tear, Brown is likely seeing prayer yards as opposed to Air Yards from Colt McCoy if the Cardinals push the ball downfield. However, Hollywood’s 9.5 Average Target Distance (no. 74) indicates that he has mostly seen passes close to the line of scrimmage this season anyways. He makes for a fine cash game play this week despite his ceiling being caved in by the Murray injury.
6) Mack Hollins – DK: $4,600
Air Yards Value Score: 54.08
Air Yards: 966 (No. 21)|
Air Yards Share: 23.7-percent (No. 47)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 518 (No. 17)|
Mack Hollins’s time as the second target in the Raiders’ passing game may be coming to an end with both Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller slated to return from IR shortly. During the past four weeks, Hollins has averaged almost seven targets. However, he has a game-high of only 70 Air Yards in this same four-game span. He makes for a great cash game play this week if Waller and Renfrow are unable to return to the lineup.
5) George Pickens – DK: $5,000
Air Yards Value Score: 54.76
Air Yards: 991 (No. 19)|
Air Yards Share: 25.4-percent (No. 42)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 493 (No. 20)|
It took George Pickens only three targets to crest to double-digit fantasy points last week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mg1V6kSWvhM
He will likely have to accomplish a similar feat this week as he has seen a combined five targets in his past two games. With an ADOT of 15.2 yards (no. 4) and Mason Rudolph likely throwing him the football, Pickens is as volatile a play as ever.
4) Drake London – DK: $4,700
Air Yards Value Score: 57.57
Air Yards: 885 (No. 28)|
Air Yards Share: 28.1-percent (No. 29)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 540 (No. 13)|
Like a phoenix Drake London rises from the… okay I’ll pump the brakes on this one because the Falcons are still projected to be a uber run-heavy offense even with newly installed rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder. However, it is exciting to get excited about London! He last saw 12 targets and 196 Air Yards in Week 13. It’s fun to think that this was a preview of what his post-bye week rookie bump is going to look like. While Arthur Smith has destroyed the souls of fantasy gamers all season, I would be interested in having lots of exposure to London in DFS this week in the hopes his rookie season rises from the ashes of Arthur Smith’s prior play calling.
3) Nico Collins – DK: $4,300
Air Yards Value Score: 59.44
Air Yards: 783 (No. 35)|
Air Yards Share: 30.0-percent (No. 25)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 438 (No. 27)|
Nico Collins did not practice today because of an ankle injury which forced him to miss last week’s game. However, in Week 13 Collins saw 173 Air Yards with Brandin Cooks unable to suit up. If Collins can play this week, he makes for a no-brainer addition to all lineups. If he is forced to sit, feel free to pivot to Chris Moore (DK: $4,200) in the hopes of an encore performance (22.4 fantasy points on 11 targets last week) from him.
2) Marvin Jones – DK: $3,400
Air Yards Value Score: 65.93
Air Yards: 828 (No. 32)|
Air Yards Share: 24.9-percent (No. 43)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 520 (No. 16)|
Marvin Jones has been unable to cash in on the Trevor Lawrence breakout. He saw only 13 Air Yards last week. He is truly desperate play and is one more game of minimal usage away from redaction.
1) Diontae Johnson – DK: $5,100
Air Yards Value Score: 80.04
Air Yards: 1,210 (No. 10)|
Air Yards Share: 31.0-percent (No. 21)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 697 (No. 4)|
I’ve speculated on a Dionate Johnson touchdown for a couple of weeks now and unfortunately, Johnson is still yet to find the endzone this season. Last week, Johnson saw his first game in six games without a red zone target. However, he had one of his best games of the season scoring 14.2 fantasy points on eight targets and an impressive 154 Air Yards. With Mason Rudolph likely to start at quarterback, Johnson is a desperate cash-game option especially since he faces a tough Panthers secondary.
Good luck to everyone in Week 15. May all your Air Yards be realized.
