This is the Air Yards DFS Value Index for Week 4! Chris Olave delivered last week, so let’s see who can deliver this week.
The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score.
The Best Values
The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score so as to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.
We will highlight three wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards value plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.
Paying Up
Amari Cooper – DK: $6,300
Air Yards Value Score: 100
Air Yards: 305 (No. 13 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 52-percent (No. 1)
Unrealized Air Yards: 130 (No. 25)
Amari Cooper is looking like his old self again. After being out targeted by Donovan Peoples-Jones 11 to six in Week 1, Cooper has regained his anticipated stranglehold on the Browns passing attack. Cooper has seen double digit targets and over 120 Air Yards each of the past two weeks. Look for Cooper to continue his dominance this week against Falcons.
Courtland Sutton – DK: $6,700
Air Yards Value Score: 92.77
Air Yards: 371 (No. 2)
Air Yards Share: 40.3-percent (No. 5)
Unrealized Air Yards: 125 (No. 28)
Courtland Sutton, much like the Broncos offense, is waiting on Russ to cook. Fortunately, he has had some appetizers while waiting for the main course finishing as a top 24 wide receiver in fantasy points the past two weeks. The boom week is coming though as Sutton’s usage in both targets and Air Yards suggest he going to finish as a WR1, and perhaps the WR1, one of these weeks.
Top-10 Value Plays
10) Nico Collins – DK: $4,000
Air Yards Value Score: 55.22
Air Yards: 217 (No. 37)
Air Yards Share: 25.7-percent (No. 37)
Unrealized Air Yards: 126 (No. 27)
Nico Collins usage in the Texans offense came back down to earth last week with the second-year wide receiver seeing only four targets and 48 Air Yards against the Bears. He only saw 12 less Air Yards than Brandin Cooks last week but trails the Texans WR1 by 54 Air Yards on the season. He remains a clear secondary option on a slow Texans offense and is a desperation dart throw only.
9) Jahan Dotson – DK: $4,300
Air Yards Value Score: 55.88
Air Yards: 255 (No. 24)
Air Yards Share: 23.7-percent (No. 48)
Unrealized Air Yards: 145 (No. 18)
Jahan Dotson did not score a touchdown for the first time in his career last week and finished with only three fantasy points. He continues to trail Terry McLaurin in Air Yards and targets. Dotson is also behind Curtis Samuel in targets. He is likely best thought of as a touchdown dependent dart throw this week despite seeing 101 Air Yards last week with the Commanders in comeback mode.
8) Mack Hollins – DK: 4,200
Air Yards Value Score: 56.84
Air Yards: 255 (No. 24)
Air Yards Share: 23.6-percent (No. 49)
Unrealized Air Yards: 57 (No. 65)
Mack Hollins is having a sixth year breakout. The former 2017 fourth round pick of the Eagles saw 97-percent of the Raiders snaps last week operating as a downfield target for Derek Carr amassing 178 Air Yards. He also saw four red-zone targets and finished as the WR2 on the week, scoring 30 fantasy points. Even if Hunter Refrow returns from injury in this week, Hollins will still be locked into his role on the boundary. He makes for an okay dart throw in tournaments this week.
Mack Hollins Advanced Stats & Metrics
7) Jakobi Meyers – DK: $4,800
Air Yards Value Score: 58.75
Air Yards: 207 (No. 42)
Air Yards Share: 34.3-percent (No. 15)
Unrealized Air Yards: 79 (No. 48)
Jakobi Meyers missed Week 3 with a knee injury. He appears on track to return this week but will be without his starting quarterback, Mac Jones. Regardless, he will likely serve as a great safety valve for Brian Hoyer and see his usual amount of usage in the Patriots offense. Feel free to insert him back into your cash lineups.
6) Elijah Moore – DK: $4,800
Air Yards Value Score: 61.03
Air Yards: 304 (No. 14)
Air Yards Share: 24.3-percent (No. 40)
Unrealized Air Yards: 180 (No. 7)
Elijah Moore has disappointed many fantasy gamers thus far this season being outscored by both Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson. However, with Joe Flacco in slinging it downfield mode, he has still seen 304 Air Yards. Perhaps Zach Wilson, who is scheduled to return this week , may be able to connect with Moore and finally help the hyped second year receiver realize some Air Yards.
5) George Pickens – DK: $3,800
Air Yards Value Score: 61.91
Air Yards: 242 (No. 27)
Air Yards Share: 24.5-percent (No. 39)
Unrealized Air Yards: 177 (No. 8)
George Pickens‘ Thursday night sideline catch was some of the prettiest realized Air Yards I’ve seen in awhile. Pickens leads the league with 18.6 yards of Average Target Distance, so he will likely have to keep making pretty grabs on some ugly Mitchell Tribusky throws. With Diontae Johnson soaking up the Steelers targets, Pickens is best seen as a tournament dart throw.
George Pickens Advanced Stats & Metrics
4) D.J. Chark – DK: $5,000
Air Yards Value Score: 65.73
Air Yards: 284 (No. 17)
Air Yards Share: 29.2-percent (No. 30)
Unrealized Air Yards: 208 (No. 3)
D.J. Chark has seen 158 Air Yards the past two weeks but unfortunately has only 7.6 fantasy points to show for it. He had less Air Yards last week than Josh Reynolds who also out-snapped Chark. This only adds to the high volatility Chark already has thanks in large part due to his 15.8 average target distance. He remains a tournament option only.
3) Corey Davis – DK: $4,500
Air Yards Value Score: 69.89
Air Yards: 315 (No. 10)
Air Yards Share: 25.2-percent (No. 38)
Unrealized Air Yards: 161 (No. 11)
Corey Davis is the most volatile member of the Jets passing attack. He trails both Wilson and Moore in targets and has the highest average depth of target (17.5 yards) among all three receivers. He is a boom or bust tournament option. It is anyone’s guess who Zach Wilson will prefer in the passing game.
2) Garrett Wilson – DK: $5,400
Air Yards Value Score: 72.73
Air Yards: 352 (No. 5)
Air Yards Share: 28.1-percent (No. 31)
Unrealized Air Yards: 190 (No. 5)
Garrett Wilson is the highest priced viable Jets receiving option entering Week 4 and for good reason. He leads the Jets in targets, Air Yards, and fantasy points. The only thing stopping Wilson from being a smash play at his price point is the uncertainty surrounding how Zach Wilson‘s return will effect the Jets offense. However, with Wilson producing like he has, this is the type of uncertainty that you might want to be exposed to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-9k2VwnZ9k&ab_channel=PlayerProfilerFantasyFootballwithThePodfather
1) Marvin Jones – DK: $4,300
Air Yards Value Score: 81.48
Air Yards: 258 (No. 22)
Air Yards Share: 34.2-percent (No. 16)
Unrealized Air Yards: 164 (No. 10)
Marvin Jones continues to pace the Jaguars in Air Yards. While he has been outscored in fantasy points by both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, Jones remains the Jaguars preferred downfield target with an average target distance of 14.3 yards. If Trevor Lawrence is forced to air it out with the Jaguars going against an explosive Eagles offense, look for him to try to find Marvin Jones for a long touchdown.
Good luck to everyone in Week 4. May all your Air Yards be realized.
