The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score. The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.
We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards Value Plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.
Paying Up
Courtland Sutton – DK: $6,400
Air Yards Value Score: 100
Air Yards: 928 (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 44.6-percent (No. 3)
Unrealized Air Yards: 480 (No. 1)
Courtland Sutton reclaims the top spot of the Air Yards Value List after a WR31 finish against the Browns in an island game where he saw only 56 Air Yards. Now priced $200 more than when he was last on the main slate, Sutton remains a recommended play in all formats. He is set to remain the Broncos focal point on offense with Jerry Jeudy yet to practice and squares off against a exploitable Washington secondary.
Brandin Cooks – DK: $5,700
Air Yards Value Score: 94.78
Air Yards: 608 (No. 15)
Air Yards Share: 45.7-percent (No. 2)
Unrealized Air Yards: 212 (No. 37)
Brandin Cooks joins Courtland Sutton again as the top two values on the slate for the third time this season. Like Sutton, Cooks has a monopolistic share of Air Yards on the Texans. However, he likely will see coverage from Jalen Ramsey this week, the No. 1 cornerback in PlayerProfiler’s rankings. For this reason alone, Cooks’ upside is muted and is best reserved for Cash games only.
Top-10 Value List
No. 10) Tee Higgins – DK: $4,100
Air Yards Value Score: 38.35
Air Yards: 419 (No. 45)
Air Yards Share: 33.3-percent (No. 27)
Unrealized Air Yards: 254 (No. 24)
Tee Higgins is flying under the radar. With teammate rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase averaging over 20 Fantasy Points Per Game, many have overlooked that Higgins actually leads the Bengals in targets when healthy. Coming off a game where he also led the Bengals with 172 Air Yards, Higgins is in a prime boom spot against a poor Jets secondary.
Tee Higgins saw 41.7% of Cincinnati's targets today. He's now seen 43 targets in his five games played. In those same games, Ja'Marr Chase has seen 37 targets. Tyler Boyd has seen 28.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 24, 2021
While Cincinnati may look to pound the rock against a equally atrocious Jets run defense, Higgins should see penalty of opportunities to be a rock solid play in all DFS formats.
No. 9) Nelson Agholor – DK: $4,000
Air Yards Value Score: 38.35
Air Yards: 469 (No. 36)
Air Yards Share: 24.6-percent (No. 51)
Unrealized Air Yards: 252 (No. 24)
Nelson Agholor continues to operate as the Patriots deep ball threat. He has 10 (No. 16) Deep Ball Targets on the season and a 13.4 (No. 20) Average Target Distance. With more than half of his Air Yards unrealized on the season, Agholor is a mere tournament dart throw against the Chargers in Week 8.
No. 8) Darnell Mooney – DK: $4,800
Air Yards Value Score: 47.05
Air Yards: 415 (No. 35)
Air Yards Share: 20.6-percent (No. 57)
Unrealized Air Yards: 217 (No. 27)
Darnell Mooney is priced $100 lower than teammate Allen Robinson, who was actually redacted from the list this week in favor of Tee Higgins. With Mooney and Robinson essentially drawing even in Air Yards on the Bears, you’ll likely want to target the player that is cheaper and is producing more fantasy points in Mooney. With the current state of the Bears putrid offense either way you play it, Mooney and Robinson lack the upside for tournament play and should only be deployed as a cost saving measure in cash formats.
No. 7) Jakobi Meyers – DK: $5,100
Air Yards Value Score: 50.08
Air Yards: 551 (No. 19)
Air Yards Share: 28.9-percent (No. 40)
Unrealized Air Yards: 271 (No. 17)
No stranger to the Air Yards Value List, Jakobi Meyers continues to soak up targets for the Patriots. He is both top 10 in the league in targets and receptions. However, he is well outside of the top 10 at the wide receiver position in fantasy points, averaging only 12 (No. 39) Fantasy Points Per Game. Without a touchdown this season, Meyers will look to break his scoring drought like Chase Edmonds did this week. He remains a solid cash play but can pay dividends in tournaments if he does the inconceivable and finally scores a touchdown.
No. 6) DeVante Parker- DK: $4,900
Air Yards Value Score: 52.26
Air Yards: 412 (No. 48)
Air Yards Share: 38.7-percent (No. 12)
Unrealized Air Yards: 205 (No. 40)
DeVante Parker prematurely made the value list last week only to miss the week as he recovered from a hamstring injury. Expected back this week, he will look to restart where he left off with the Dolphins seeing over 100 Air Yards in his past two games. Facing off against a tough Bills secondary, Parker is best deployed in cash formats but has some tournament appeal if Tua Tagovailoa continues to throw 40-plus times per game.
No. 5) Michael Pittman- DK: $5,300
Air Yards Value Score: 56.89
Air Yards: 534 (No. 21)
Air Yards Share: 35.2-percent (No. 20)
Unrealized Air Yards: 168 (No. 50)
Michael Pittman saved his fantasy day last week with a late touchdown where he absolutely Mossed Dre Kirkpatrick. This week, he takes on a Titans secondary that has been torched by opposing receivers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aGrH8avh7s&ab_channel=PlayerProfilerFantasyFootballwithThePodfather
Even if teammate T.Y. Hilton is active this week, Pittman will likely continue to feast in what has become a bona fide second year breakout. Roster him confidently across all formats.
No. 4) Robby Anderson – DK: $4,700
Air Yards Value Score: 57.50
Air Yards: 581 (No. 18)
Air Yards Share: 29.0-percent (No. 39)
Unrealized Air Yards: 433 (No. 4)
The wheels have fallen off the Robby Anderson squeaky wheel narrative. Despite averaging close to double digit targets his past four games, Anderson has yet to finish higher than WR40 in any given week. His Air Yards are currently prayer yards and he makes for a mere dart throw tournament play this week.
No. 3) Odell Beckham – DK: $4,600
Air Yards Value Score: 59.81
Air Yards: 476 (No. 34)
Air Yards Share: 36.1-percent (No. 17)
Unrealized Air Yards: 290 (No. 14)
Odell Beckham is priced at $4,600 and it still makes me feel gross playing him. Playing through injury after missing the majority of last season because of an ACL tear, OBJ just doesn’t look the same sporting a career worst -21.7 (No. 173) Production Premium. Coupling this with a equally hobbled Baker Mayfield set to return under center, Beckham should be viewed as a desperation tournament dart throw in Week 8.
No. 2) Emmanuel Sanders – DK: $5,400
Air Yards Value Score: 64.11
Air Yards: 676 (No. 12)
Air Yards Share: 31.9-percent (No. 31)
Unrealized Air Yards: 301 (No. 12)
After a Week 7 bye, Emmanuel Sanders returns to haul in bombs thrown by Josh Allen. With a 17.3 (No. 4) Average Target Distance, Sanders has run hot lately, failing to finish outside of the top 32 receivers in fantasy points each week. He is best deployed in tournament formats since he sports a low floor due to his high ADOT.
No. 1) Devonta Smith- DK: $5,500
Air Yards Value Score: 82.15
Air Yards: 698 (No. 11)
Air Yards Share: 40.3-percent (No. 9)
Unrealized Air Yards: 391 (No. 7)
For the second consecutive week, Devonta Smith tops the Air Yards Value List for players priced $5,500 and under. Last week, Smith didn’t live up to the hype with the Eagles offense imploding against the Raiders. He posted only 11.1 fantasy points despite seeing 108 Air Yards. This week, he has what appears to be a much easier matchup against the Lions secondary. However, the risk remains of a offensive implosion a kneecap-biting Lions squad. I’d be more apt to play Smith in cash as opposed to tournaments, but some limited exposure in GPP’s may pay off nicely.
