This is the Air Yards DFS Value Index for Week 8!
The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score.
The Best Values
The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score so as to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.
We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards value plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.
Paying Up
Chris Olave – DK: $6,000
Air Yards Value Score: 100
Air Yards: 922 (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 42.2-percent (No. 1)
Unrealized Air Yards: 518 (No. 1)
Chris Olave, the Air Yards king, returns to the main slate this week. He, impressively, is the Air Yards triple crown leader as he is currently ranked No. 1 in all major Air Yards-related categories. He is a must-play in all formats regardless of who is starting at quarterback for the Saints this week and whether Michael Thomas and/or Jarvis Landry are active.
Diontae Johnson – DK: $5,600
Air Yards Value Score: 59.80
Air Yards: 703 (No. 6)
Air Yards Share: 30.9-percent (No. 23)
Unrealized Air Yards: 401 (No. 2)
Diontae Johnson is the only Steelers receiver who misses Mitchell Trubisky under center. Since Kenny Pickett took snaps under center in week four, Johnson has crested double-digit fantasy points just once. He also trails George Pickens by 38 Air Yards since Pickett took over. However, Johnson is still seeing sufficient opportunity in both targets (averaging 8.5 since week four) and Air Yards (averaging 81 Air Yards per game since week four) to be fantasy relevant. Johnson’s fantasy production should correct itself as he and Pickett continue to attempt to establish familiarity.
Top-10 Value Plays
10) Alec Pierce – DK: $4,600
Air Yards Value Score: 32.40
Air Yards: 378 (No. 48)
Air Yards Share: 25.6-percent (No. 42)
Unrealized Air Yards: 115 (No. 75)
Alec Pierce took a back seat to Parris Campbell again this week seeing only four targets compared to Campbell’s 12. Still, Pierce continues to see more Air Yards than Campbell, outgaining the veteran by 172 Air Yards this season. It is anyone’s guess how new starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger will affect the offense. If Ehlinger was promoted so that the Colts could air it out a bit more, Pierce is the likely beneficiary and is in an intriguing tournament dart throw.
9) Garrett Wilson – DK: $4,200
Air Yards Value Score: 36.27
Air Yards: 446 (No. 36)
Air Yards Share: 22.2-percent (No. 55)
Unrealized Air Yards: 238 (No. 28)
Garrett Wilson is the lone Jets receiver left on the Air Yards Value list with Corey Davis injuring his knee and Elijah Moore sporting the DNP coach’s decision in Week 7. However, Wilson’s time on the Air Yards list may be waning. With Zach Wilson under center, Wilson has failed to crest 50 Air Yards since Week 4 and posted negative four Air Yards last week on five targets. The only hope for Wilson is that the gut-wrenching Breece Hall injury may force the Jets into a more pass-heavy attack. However, this seems unlikely. Wilson is a dart throw-only option in DFS.
8) Drake London – DK: $5,100
Air Yards Value Score: 36.67
Air Yards: 421 (No. 41)
Air Yards Share: 28.8-percent (No. 29)
Unrealized Air Yards: 224 (No. 33)
Drake London continues to soak up targets (31-percent Target Share) on a team that refuses to pass the ball (42.9-percent pass rate). For these reasons, London hasn’t seen more than seven targets in the past four weeks and ended last week seeing only one target and five Air Yards. Despite his elite target share, he really can’t be trusted from a fantasy perspective and unfortunately profiles as a high-cost dart throw.
Falcons trailed by 10+ points for the final 50 minutes of their game today. They threw the ball 13 times. Drake London and Kyle Pitts had a combined six targets for 18 yards.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 23, 2022
7) Noah Brown – DK: $4,300
Air Yards Value Score: 37.62
Air Yards: 431 (No. 37)
Air Yards Share: 24.4-percent (No. 47)
Unrealized Air Yards: 166 (No. 51)
Noah Brown saw 93 Air Yards last week against the Detroit Lions catching five passes for 50 yards. He saw one more target than CeeDee Lamb and five more targets than Michael Gallup. Brown has also ran more routes than Gallup in the past two games. He is a key cog in the Cowboys’ passing attack and makes for a great value-based play at only $4,300.
Noah Brown Advanced Stats & Metrics
6) Josh Reynolds – DK: $5,000
Air Yards Value Score: 37.93
Air Yards: 469 (No. 32)
Air Yards Share: 26.2-percent (No. 41)
Unrealized Air Yards: 209 (No. 38)
Josh Reynolds posted only 1.8 fantasy points in Week 7 after scoring double-digit fantasy points the past four consecutive games. He still saw 41 Air Yards on only two targets so his boom/bust role in Detroit’s offense remains intact. Even at $5,000, he remains a value with the hopes that he can return to his weeks two through five fantasy output.
5) Mack Hollins – DK: $4,500
Air Yards Value Score:40.89
Air Yards: 474 (No. 30)
Air Yards Share: 25.2-percent (No. 43)
Unrealized Air Yards: 220 (No. 35)
Mack Hollins hit last week thanks in part to a touchdown score. He saw only 40 Air Yards on three targets but maintained his high average target distance (15.3 ADOT). He remains a value-based boom/bust play in tournament lineups.
4) Devante Parker – DK: $4,400
Air Yards Value Score: 42.02
Air Yards: 455 (No. 35)
Air Yards Share: 26.4-percent (No. 38)
Unrealized Air Yards: 215 (No. 36)
Devante Parker has been Zapped into fantasy relevance over the past two weeks. With Bailey Zappe under center for the Patriots, Parker has seen at least five targets a game and 71 Air yards per game. His usage may stick with Mac Jones returning as a starter as Parker had his best fantasy week of the season with Jones under center posting 20.6 fantasy points and 212 Air Yards in Week 3. Parker is the preferred Patriots pass catcher to plug into DFS lineups.
Bailey Zappe making things Zappen!
DeVante Parker with the 👀👀👀👀👀 Catch
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) October 25, 2022
3) George Pickens – DK: $4,700
Air Yards Value Score: 52.59
Air Yards: 604 (No. 15)
Air Yards Share: 26.5-percent (No. 37)
Unrealized Air Yards: 315 (No. 14)
George Pickens finished as the WR12 on the week against the Dolphins in prime time securing all six of his targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. He lags Diontae Johnson in Air Yards on the season but has outgained his veteran teammate in the metric since Kenny Pickett was placed under center. Pickens, as opposed to, Johnson, is a preferred tournament play thanks in part to his big play ability and 14.7 Average Target Distance (No. 8).
2) D.J. Moore – DK: $5,300
Air Yards Value Score: 59.77
Air Yards: 522 (No. 24)
Air Yards Share: 39.4-percent (No. 4)
Unrealized Air Yards: 310 (No. 16)
D.J. Moore posted his first top-12 finish on the season last week which was his first game post-Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson trades. Moore saw 10 targets and 93 Air Yards in Week 7, and his opportunities should remain plentiful as the clear-cut best offensive player on the Panthers. Just when I thought I was out, D.J. Moore pulled me back to making him a priority play in all lineups.
1) Darnell Mooney – DK: $4,800
Air Yards Value Score: 73.06
Air Yards: 539 (No. 23)
Air Yards Share: 42.2-percent (No. 2)
Unrealized Air Yards: 313 (No. 15)
Darnell Mooney‘s fantasy’s relevance has been inextricably tied to Justin Fields’ passing attempts. With Fields passing the football at least 20 times a game from Week 4 onward, Mooney has averaged 99 Air Yards per game and seen at least five targets in each outing. He is an absolute cash game value this week against the Cowboys and has the chance to go off for over 100 Yards and a touchdown. He needs to be roster in all formats.
Good luck to everyone in Week 8. May all your Air Yards be realized.
