The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score. The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.
We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards Value Plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.
Paying Up
Courtland Sutton – DK: $5,900
Air Yards Value Score: 100
Air Yards: 982 (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 43.6-percent (No. 3)
Unrealized Air Yards: 501 (No. 1)
Courtland Sutton finds his way on the Paying Up section yet again this week. However, the return of Jerry Jeudy stymies some optimism for a boom week coming from Sutton. Last week upon Jeudy’s return to the lineup Sutton saw only 56 Air Yards, with Jeudy and Tim Patrick finishing with 36 Air Yards and 42 Air Yards, respectively. Regardless, Sutton led the trio in Air Yards on the week and faces a Cowboys secondary that can let up some big plays. He is recommended play in all formats however his upside is muted with Jeudy now back in the fold.
D.J. Moore – DK: $6,400
Air Yards Value Score: 74.16
Air Yards: 856 (No. 5)
Air Yards Share: 40.2-percent (No. 7)
Unrealized Air Yards: 458 (No. 4)
D.J. Moore‘s fantasy season has been a a wild roller coaster. Through his first four games, Moore averaged 22.4 Fantasy Points Per Game and averaged 110.5 Air Yards per game. However, in his last four games Moore has averaged only 10.7 Fantasy Points Per Game despite averaging roughly the same, 103.5 Air Yards, on a per game basis. This recent lack of production has driven down Moore’s price and he is without a doubt a buy low.
D.J. Moore over the last 4 weeks:
4th in expected fantasy points per game
44th in actual fantasy points per game
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 3, 2021
With Sam Darnold highly questionable and P.J. Walker in line to make a potential spot start at quarterback, Moore is likely to have low exposure and makes for a great contrarian play in tournaments this week.
Top-10 Value List
No. 10) Kenny Golladay – DK: $5,200
Air Yards Value Score: 26.96
Air Yards: 402 (No. 51)
Air Yards Share: 25.3-percent (No. 47)
Unrealized Air Yards: 195 (No. 49)
Kenny Golladay‘s Week 9 status is up in the air as he continues to nurse a knee injury that has sidelined the former prized free agent acquisition since week five. Golladay leads the Giants in Air Yards in games that he has started and hasn’t left early due to injury. In games where he has played over 80-percent of the snaps he has averaged over 100 Air Yards per game. If he plays, he makes for a great value based play. If he doesn’t and you are looking to gain exposure to the Giants offense, teammate Darius Slayton (DK: $4,800), who ranks just below Golladay on the Air Yards value list, makes for a good dart throw as well.
No. 9) Tim Patrick – DK: $4,700
Air Yards Value Score: 50.16
Air Yards: 460 (No. 45)
Air Yards Share: 20.4-percent (No. 59)
Unrealized Air Yards: 167 (No. 59)
After multiple appearances on this list last season, Tim Patrick finally makes an appearance this year. Averaging 11.3 Fantasy Points Per Game, Patrick left off where he finished last year, averaging double-digit Fantasy Points Per Game. A consistent scorer of double digit fantasy points, Patrick has crested that mark in five of eight games this season. However, he has failed to finish higher than the WR22 in any given week.
DEN:
Jerry Jeudy’s return muddied the fantasy outlooks for Sutton, Tim Patrick, and himself
Sutton- 45 snaps, 24 routes, 4 tgt, 2-40 (54 air yards)
Jeudy- 36 snaps, 20 routes, 4 tgt, 2-8 (36 air yards)
Patrick- 48 snaps, 25 routes, 3 tgt, 3-64 (42 air yards)⬇️⬇️
— Josh Larky ↗️ (@jlarkytweets) November 3, 2021
Unable to display week winning upside, Patrick is best reserved for cash games.
No. 8) Bryan Edwards – DK: $4,100
Air Yards Value Score: 31.76
Air Yards: 454 (No. 47)
Air Yards Share: 20.8-percent (No. 57)
Unrealized Air Yards: 225 (No. 38)
Bryan Edwards had been sharing field stretching duties in the Raiders offense as he and Henry Ruggs are within the top five of qualified wide receivers in Average Target Distance. With Ruggs no longer in the NFL to share the field with, Edwards could see a few additional targets each game as the Raiders passing attack consolidates targets. Averaging only 4.3 targets per game, he will either have to see more opportunity or come down with a long touchdown to be a worthy tournament dart throw.
No. 7) Christian Kirk – DK: $5,300
Air Yards Value Score: 33.28
Air Yards: 510 (No. 41)
Air Yards Share: 25.1-percent (No. 48)
Unrealized Air Yards: 127 (No. 74)
Christian Kirk appears posed to see an uptick in usage this Sunday. DeAndre Hopkins may sit. A.J. Green is on the COVID list and may not play as well. Unfortunately, Kyler Murray may be sidelined with an ankle injury meaning Kirk may see targets from backup Colt McCoy.
Christian Kirk Advanced Stats & Metrics
Regardless of who is under center Kirk looks like a good bet to lead the Cardinals in targets and Air Yards in Week 9 and makes for a recommended cash play.
No. 6) Marquez Callaway – DK: $5,000
Air Yards Value Score: 35.82
Air Yards: 424 (No. 48)
Air Yards Share: 30.7-percent (No. 32)
Unrealized Air Yards: 174 (No. 55)
Marquez Callaway‘s fantasy production has taken a hit since Tre’Quan Smith returned to the starting lineup. In the past two games, with Smith healthy, Callaway has averaged only 6.1 fantasy points. While he still leads the Saints in Air Yards during this time, his Week 9 prospects also have taken a hit with Trevor Siemian replacing the injured Jameis Winston at quarterback. While Callaway is set to square of against an exploitable Falcons secondary, it hard to see his Week 9 upside based on recent developments and he should be considered a cash play only.
No. 5) Tee Higgins – DK: $5,300
Air Yards Value Score: 47.46
Air Yards: 520 (No. 38)
Air Yards Share: 35.1-percent (No. 21)
Unrealized Air Yards: 281 (No. 19)
Tee Higgins is the most exciting name I see on this list. He is about even with teammate Ja’Marr Chase in targets since his return from injury in week five and only trails Chase by two Air Yards during this time.
Friends don’t let friends forget Tee Higgins is a fooking studpic.twitter.com/sPQ2afnYkT
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 3, 2021
While Chase is a value of his own at $7,600, Higgins is essentially a $2,300 discount on the same passing game opportunity. For this reason, Higgins is a preferred play in all formats.
No. 4) Jakobi Meyers – DK: $5,200
Air Yards Value Score: 48.32
Air Yards: 640 (No. 18)
Air Yards Share: 28.5-percent (No. 37)
Unrealized Air Yards: 331 (No. 15)
Jakobi Meyers continues to stay on the Air Yards value list in large part due to his failure to score a touchdown this season. He continues to see lots of targets in the Patriots passing game averaging 8.5 this season. He saw one red zone target this week and the Patriots may look his way there again. He continues to be a great cash game play.
No. 3) Robby Anderson – DK: $4,500
Air Yards Value Score: 52.17
Air Yards: 602 (No. 23)
Air Yards Share: 28.3-percent (No. 39)
Unrealized Air Yards: 454 (No. 5)
Robby Anderson saw one target and scored zero fantasy points last week. He is so close to being booted from this list like 2020 A.J. Green.
CAR:
Still hard to believe Robby Anderson out-targeted DJ Moore in 2020…
In 2021, DJ Moore 29.5% target share. Robby 18.2%
In Week 8:
DJM- 23 routes, 8 targets, 4 receptions, 59 yards
Robby- 21 routes, 1 targets, 0 receptions, 0 yards
Spare yourself & drop Robby
⬇️⬇️⬇️
— Josh Larky ↗️ (@jlarkytweets) November 2, 2021
Whether you call them Prayer Yards, or Fail Yards, Anderson has to produce something before any sane person places him in a DFS lineup.
No. 2) Nelson Agholor – DK: $4,100
Air Yards Value Score: 53.69
Air Yards: 419 (No. 45)
Air Yards Share: 33.3-percent (No. 27)
Unrealized Air Yards: 254 (No. 24)
Nelson Agholor has led the Patriots in Air Yards the past two weeks. As we have noted before, he is the field stretching option for the Patriots, averaging 14.6 (No. 6) yards per target. He has the potential to go boom in any week based on this usage and should be continually sprinkled into tournament lineups.
No. 1) Devonta Smith – DK: $5,200
Air Yards Value Score: 81.23
Air Yards: 419 (No. 45)
Air Yards Share: 33.3-percent (No. 27)
Unrealized Air Yards: 254 (No. 24)
We are already talking about a few of them as among the absolute best of the best. CeeDee, Jefferson and Chase — and not to mention Jeudy, Higgins, Claypool, Waddle, Devonta Smith, Bateman, Toney, and that’s just off the top of my head. https://t.co/mudWPJoVKy
— RosterWatch (@RosterWatch) November 5, 2021
DeVonta Smith is setting up again as the contrarian play of the week. He scored only 2.5 fantasy points last week against the hapless Lions in a game where his team scored over 40 points. With key injuries to the Chargers secondary this week, Smith should be able to rebound in a game that the Eagles may be forced to throw a lot to keep up with the Chargers.
