In dynasty fantasy football, using valuable first and second round rookie picks on Day 3 NFL Draft selections is a losing strategy. In the late rounds of dynasty rookie drafts, however, the option to select players with Top 3 round draft capital no longer exists. One strategy is to use third and fourth round rookie picks on rookie running backs selected late in the draft. The hope is that one pops for at least a few games, raising his value so you can immediately trade him for a more stable asset of equal value. Remember, this is a highly volatile asset whose worth is based mostly on opportunity. Given the player’s low draft capital investment by his team, his hold on that opportunity is inherently insecure.
Since 2015, eight players drafted on Day 3 have at least one season with 200-plus PPR fantasy points while averaging 12 or more Fantasy Points Per Game. The list includes: Tarik Cohen, Jay Ajayi, Chris Carson, Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard, Aaron Jones, Latavius Murray, and James White. Five undrafted backs also qualify, including LeGarrette Blount, Isaiah Crowell, Austin Ekeler, Phillip Lindsay, and Danny Woodhead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVFlRUfBvQY
Our possible targets possess either workhorse size for touchdown vulture potential or superb receiving skills with pass catching upside. Ideal candidates possess both. The following players lack the draft investment to guarantee any future NFL opportunity, but they each own advanced metrics and analytical profiles that signal the potential to flourish if given early career touches.
Joshua Kelley – Los Angeles Chargers
Joshua Kelley was selected by the Chargers with the sixth pick of the fourth round. He joins Austin Ekeler, fresh off a contract extension, and 2018 seventh rounder Justin Jackson. At 5-11, 212-pounds, with a 29.6 (38th-percentile among qualified running backs) Body Mass Index, he has at least 13-pounds on the diminutive Ekeler and Jackson. He is both straight-line fast and agile. He has a 104.3 (78th-percentile) Speed Score, the single most important workout metric when searching for running back fantasy production, and his speed shows up in his college numbers. In junior college, he averaged 26.1 and 24.3-yards per kick return in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Then, in two seasons at UCLA, he commanded a 33.2-percent (77th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, Top-10 among qualifying 2020 rookie running back prospects.
https://youtu.be/7IkbSzT9mv4
Ekeler and Jackson are passing game specialists, but Kelley has a season with 27 receptions on his collegiate resume. Plus, he should have a smoother NFL transition given that he went to college at UCLA and now will stay in Los Angeles as a Charger. He popped at the Senior Bowl and is the biggest back in LA with Melvin Gordon gone. Kelley is a Top-25 player in PlayerProfiler’s Rookie rankings. Vacuum him up in the third round of rookie drafts.
Anthony McFarland – Pittsburgh Steelers
With the 18th pick of the fourth round, the Steelers snatched the electric Anthony McFarland. At first glance, it may appear he is joining a crowded Steelers backfield. However, James Conner is entering the final year of his rookie contract, and McFarland now has more draft capital than his competition in Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels. Kerrith Whyte and Trey Edmunds are purely roster fillers barely worth mentioning.
Anthony McFarland Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile w/ College Stats
Insert McFarland and his 4.44 (92nd-percentile) 40-Yard Dash and 107.0 (85th-percentile) Speed Score, and now Pittsburgh goes from driving a Toyota Prius to a Tesla. During his 2018 breakout, McFarland rushed for over 1,000 yards while averaging 7.9 yards per carry. The kid from Maryland has got the juice. His resume includes a game with 298 rushing yard and two touchdowns on 21 carries. That game wasn’t against inferior competition either. He did it against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Even though Maryland should have gotten him the ball even more, he still managed a 7.6-percent (54th-percentile) College Target Share. Conner missed six games last year due to two different injuries and appeared sluggish to end the season. In prime position to be Conner’s top backup, McFarland is an easy choice any time in the second half of the second round of rookie drafts.
Lamical Perine – New York Jets
At pick No. 120 in the 2020 draft, the Jets selected Florida running back Lamical Perine. Most notable on Perine’s college resume are his 40 receptions last season. Perine was one of only four 2020 running back prospects to record at least 600 rushing yards and 40 receptions in 2019. He sports an average athletic profile, with a 11.44 (46th-percentile) Agility Score and 94.8 (44th-percentile) Speed Score. At 5-11, 216-pounds, he has the build to carry a workload, though he never topped 140 carries in a single college season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4UQiaq2qWY
In New York, Perine has little competition for the No. 2 spot behind Le’Veon Bell. Josh Adams is an unsexy grinder, while Kenneth Dixon is injury-riddled and old. Neither are signed past this year. Trenton Cannon is a small satellite back who helps more on kick returns. The Jets can also get out of Bell’s contract after this season and save $9.5 and $13.0 million in cap space in 2021 and 2022, respectively, per OverTheCap. Due to his size and sneaky receiving chops, Perine is Best Comparable to T.J. Yeldon, in a good way. A 2020 handcuff with potential long-term opportunity, Perine is a sneaky stash late in rookie drafts.
Eno Benjamin – Arizona Cardinals
Eno Benjamin‘s draft process was a roller coaster. He weighed in under 200-pounds at the Senior Bowl, only to tip the scales to 207-pounds at the Combine. He was a workhorse in college, amassing a 37.4-percent (85th-percentile) College Dominator Rating. He is not fast for his size, but he is explosive with a 127.3 (87th-percentile) Burst Score. He is barely 21 years old with a 14.4-percent (92nd-percentile) College Target Share.
Check out Eno Benjamin on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Rookie Rankings:
The bad news is the NFL spoke and said Benjamin is a seventh-round pick. He is parked on the depth chart behind the franchise tagged Kenyan Drake and sneaky best ball pick Chase Edmonds. Still, Arizona is a cushy landing spot that provided Drake with a 91.5 (No. 4) Run Blocking Efficiency rating last season. Benjamin is Best Comparable to Duke Johnson for goodness sake. He fits the profile of an overlooked and undersized all-purpose back, and is a perfect stash at the end of all dynasty rosters.
Honorable Mention
DeeJay Dallas was picked up by the Seahawks in Round 4 and possesses requisite size at 5-10, 217-pounds, with a 31.1 (71st-percentile) Body Mass Index. He was used as a wildcat quarterback at times in college, which is an interesting nugget in his profile. He peaked at 14 catches in a season at Miami, and is stuck in Seattle behind Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, and his former college teammate Travis Homer. With proven talent ahead of him, Dallas has a higher hill to climb to relevance, but he is still a back worth monitoring.
