No one is selling Tyler Lockett because of one quiet week (I’m switching Lockett and D.K. Metcalf‘s names in the first sentence every two weeks until further notice). There won’t be a single offer for Collin Johnson after you put him on the block. Buying low and selling high rarely works. Even though you might be the only player in your league using PlayerProfiler, your opponents aren’t idiots. Grow up, take some risks, and buy high or sell low.
Buy High
Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills
The Bills placed John Brown on injured reserve last week, cementing Gabriel Davis as the team’s No. 3 receiver for at least some of the fantasy playoffs. In his first three games without Brown in the lineup, Davis has averaged 5.3 targets for three receptions, 49.3 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns. On a limited sample of usage this year, Davis has been among the most efficient receivers in the league.
- 10.1 (No. 15 among qualified wide receivers) Yards per Target
- +20.5-percent (No. 18) Target Premium
- 2.33 (No. 12) Fantasy Points per Target
Davis now steps into a role that saw Brown produce a WR2 game in three of his eight contests, including games he left with injuries or played through them. Davis has weekly WR2 upside and the Bills are actually above average in pass attempts per game. That greatly boosts his floor and makes him one of the best under-the-radar adds going into the fantasy playoffs.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team
If your league still allows trading, go trade for Antonio Gibson. Give up whatever it takes to acquire him and not because he scores a lot of touchdowns…which he does. Go trade for him because he looks like he’ll be a three-down back to close out the year. In Week 12, Gibson ran 18 routes and saw seven targets while playing on a career-high 69.8-percent of Washington’s snaps. If his stranglehold on the pass-downs role continues to close out the year, Gibson is going to finish as the hammer that wins teams fantasy championships.
Check out Antonio Gibson on PlayerProfiler’s New DYNASTY DELUXE Rankings:
Alex Smith took over in Week 9 and Washington running backs have been used as the team’s No. 2 receiver ever since. J.D. McKissic actually leads the team in targets in that timeframe with 35, while Gibson is fourth on the team at 16 looks. That gives their combined efforts a 36-percent Target Share and a non-trivial 4-percent Air Yards Share. Gibson ran over twice as many routes on Thanksgiving as McKissic, who only saw two targets. If he is able to solidify himself as the primary runner and pass-catching back in Washington, he will be a top-five running back in the fantasy playoffs.
Sell Low
Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans
The Titans use a committee approach at tight end, and the only thing holding Jonnu Smith back from being Irv Smith this year is touchdown efficiency. His team only passes on 31.9 plays each game, 28th-most in the league. When they do choose to pass, Smith often hangs around with the linemen and protects Ryan Tannehill. His 60.5-percent Route Participation ranks No. 27 among tight ends. The routes he runs don’t even get targeted that often based on his 25.8-percent (No. 33) Target Rate. The problem is that Tennessee is fine running two tight ends, with the non-Smith tight end being the route-runner. The Titans are third in the NFL in percentage of plays run from 12-personnel. Since their impromptu Week 4 bye, Anthony Firkser has more targets than Smith. He’s fancy Cameron Brate, and if the touchdowns ever stop flowing, expect to be holding more zeroes than TE1 games.
Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots
The Patriots don’t want to use Cam Newton as a passer and who can blame them at this point. Newton has been atrocious when doing anything other than running the ball or handing it off. He has still been successful as a runner, but that can only get him so far from a fantasy perspective. Since returning from the reserve/COVID-19 list, he has five rushing touchdowns. He has one top-10 game which took two rushing touchdowns to get him there and he still only managed to reach QB8 that week. The Patriots are passing just 30.6 times per game, No. 30 in the league.
- 5.8 (No. 28) Adjusted Yards per Attempt
- 6.8 (No. 31) Accuracy Rating
- 71.2-percent (No. 27) True Completion Percentage
Newton averages 6.4 Air Yards per Attempt, meaning that his 30.6 pass attempts come with almost no upside. He has as many games under 100 passing yards as games over 300 passing yards this year. Newton draws the Chargers this week in what should be his final fantasy start. They allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the game has a 49-point total. After that, Newton faces the Rams and then the Dolphins to open the fantasy playoffs. If he throws for 350 yards and two scores while rushing two more in versus the Chargers, cut him anyway. He will not produce versus teams allowing the second-fewest and ninth-fewest fantasy points to passers.
